NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 00:19 ET
- Hindalco set a Feb. 12 board meeting to approve results for the quarter and nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025.
- Shares traded near record levels after hitting a fresh 52-week high in Monday’s session.
- Axis Securities flagged near-term disruptions at Novelis but kept its long-term view intact.
Hindalco Industries said its board will meet on Feb. 12 to consider and approve unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025.
The timing gives investors a clear date for the next earnings update as the stock trades near record levels and attention stays on its U.S. subsidiary Novelis and the ramp-up of its Bay Minette project.
Hindalco shares were up 1.16% at 875.50 rupees by 10:30 a.m. IST on Tuesday, data showed.
The stock touched a new 52-week high of 887.45 rupees in Monday’s session before slipping about 1% in afternoon trade, market data showed.
The company also said it would close its trading window ahead of the results, restricting trades in its shares by designated insiders under India’s market rules.
Axis Securities analyst Aditya Welekar said disruption from the Oswego fire incident and a tough start to the Bay Minette project were creating short-term pressure at Novelis, but he sees longer-term support from demand and pricing.
He cited management guidance for a $100 million-$150 million hit to Novelis EBITDA, a measure of operating profit, in the second half of fiscal 2026, with a $550 million-$600 million cash-flow impact expected to be recovered through insurance claims.
“As the project nears completion and execution risk reduces, visibility on Novelis’ earnings trajectory will improve,” he said.
Welekar said the Bay Minette greenfield rolling and recycling project is expected to come online in the second half of calendar 2026 and add 600 KTPA, or thousand tonnes a year, of capacity.
He said about 60% of that capacity is already contracted, largely in beverage cans, with EBITDA around $1,000 per tonne.
He pegged aluminium prices at around $2,900-$3,000 a tonne and said every $100 move in the metal can lift Hindalco’s EBITDA and earnings per share by 4%-5%.
Earnings per share is the profit attributable to each share.
The analyst said Bay Minette’s capital cost has escalated to about $5 billion, taking its internal rate of return — a project profitability metric — down to high single digits.
He said U.S. Midwest premiums — a surcharge for physical aluminium deliveries — around $1,800 a tonne and easing scrap spreads should help support the economics.
Welekar said Novelis’ EBITDA per tonne could stay around $450-$500 in the near term before improving as new capacity ramps, with a blended figure of about $600 per tonne by fiscal 2028.
He also pointed to a step-up in profitability in Hindalco’s India aluminium business, with upstream EBITDA near $1,500 per tonne, supported by rising coal self-sufficiency and higher renewable energy use.
Treatment and refining charges — fees earned for processing copper concentrate — remain weak, but he said by-product revenues and downstream conversion earnings can cushion margins.
Other metal stocks have also attracted buying as investors position for stronger commodity prices.
Hindustan Copper jumped as much as 14.8% to a record high in early trade on Monday, while Vedanta hit a record high after a six-session rise, Economic Times reported.
For Hindalco, investors will look to the February board meeting for updates on Novelis’ recovery, insurance proceeds and the Bay Minette ramp-up, alongside the group’s view on aluminium and copper markets.
