NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 1:07 p.m. EDT — U.S. stocks are open
Humana (NYSE: HUM) dropped 3.6% by 1 p.m. Thursday, giving up an initial 4.1% rise at the open. The stock turned lower even as UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) posted strong results.
This is relevant since Humana shares are already priced for a big profit rebound. The stock closed at $393.23, up 13% over the $347 median target on FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS).
FactSet’s consensus for 2027 EPS is now $16.13, up 6.4% over the last three months. Forecasts are calling for an 80% jump from 2026. Humana was trading near 24 times that number.
The gap means Humana has outpaced its earnings revisions, leaving a high bar ahead of its July 29 report.
UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $6.38 a share, topping the $4.90 estimate. The company posted a medical cost ratio of 86.7%, beating consensus by 177 basis points. UnitedHealth lifted its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to a range of $19.50 to $20.00.
UnitedHealth CFO Wayne DeVeydt said investors shouldn’t read too much into the result. “Not a reflection of a trend bending,” DeVeydt said. Reuters
Peer trading pointed to early relief giving way fast. Just after 1 p.m. EDT, prices were still shifting in open trade.
| Company | Price | Day change | From regular open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Humana (NYSE: HUM) | $393.23 | fell 3.58% | dropped 7.4% since open |
| UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) | $430.91 | rose 3.00% | down 4.1% from open |
| CVS Health (NYSE: CVS) | $107.28 | added 1.32% | off 0.8% from open |
| Elevance Health (NYSE: ELV) | $377.85 | slipped 3.07% | lost 4.2% from open |
Humana saw the biggest drop from open to snapshot in the group. Investors seem to be holding out for Humana-specific news, not looking to the whole sector for guidance.
Humana is sticking with its adjusted EPS outlook of at least $9 for 2026. The insurance benefit ratio target is 92.75%, give or take 25 basis points.
FactSet is looking for $7.25 a share in Q2 and $8.95 for 2026. The larger call is still on 2027.
Elevance lifted its profit forecast Wednesday, but the quarter wasn’t easy. The company lost 469,000 members from medical plans, and its benefit expense ratio climbed 80 basis points.
Risks: Softer Medicare use may push Humana above its $9 guidance floor. If medical cost pressure returns, the valuation premium could come under threat.
The July 29 test is limited. Humana has to prove its Medicare cost trend is getting better.
