Shanghai, Feb 2, 2026, 00:32 GMT+8 — Market closed
- Shanghai-listed ICBC A-shares dipped slightly on Friday before Monday’s reopening
- The bank flagged volatile precious-metal prices over the weekend in a risk warning
- After official gauges slipped into contraction, traders are now bracing for another PMI readout on Feb. 2
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s Class A shares on the Shanghai exchange will resume trading Monday following a warning from the lender about growing volatility in precious-metal prices—a new risk amid worsening data. The stock ended Friday at 7.25 yuan, slipping 0.01 yuan, or 0.14%. (Yahoo Finance)
Timing is key. Mainland investors enter the new week as a major state lender signals rising market uncertainty, while a series of activity surveys suggest demand is cooling.
For banks, weak economic data cuts both ways. It can boost expectations for policy easing and cheaper funding, yet it also sparks concerns over loan growth and rising credit costs—particularly if regulators pressure lenders to maintain low rates.
ICBC’s A-shares, traded in yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange under the ticker 601398, rank among the “Big Four” state banks. Investors keep a close eye on them—not just for earnings but as a barometer of policy shifts. (Shanghai Stock Exchange)
The weekend trigger was modest but clear. On Sunday, the bank issued a statement noting that precious-metal prices had been “highly volatile” and advised investors to carefully evaluate their risk tolerance and steer clear of rash trading decisions. (Reuters)
Official data pointed to a sluggish start for China’s economy. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.3 in January, down from 50.1 in December, dropping below the crucial 50 threshold that marks contraction. The non-manufacturing PMI wasn’t any better, falling to 49.4, according to a Reuters report on Saturday. Huo Lihui, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics of China, noted that many manufacturers typically slow down in January and demand stayed weak. Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, warned that Beijing “will have to do much more” in the months ahead. (Reuters)
Before the release, economists anticipated a flatter reading. A Reuters poll out Friday put the official PMI near 50.0, highlighting how fast sentiment swings when the survey misses expectations. (Reuters)
ICBC shareholders are closely watching if softer PMIs spark renewed speculation about additional easing by the People’s Bank of China. While rate cuts support borrowers, they usually narrow banks’ net interest margin — the difference between loan earnings and deposit costs.
ICBC isn’t riding solo. Investors tend to treat the sector as a group—China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China often move in sync, reacting to policy shifts and broader macroeconomic signals rather than specific company updates.
The downside is clear. If demand remains weak and regulators pressure lenders to offer cheaper credit to boost growth, margins could shrink even more. At the same time, a fresh wave of economic trouble would likely increase provisions for bad loans.
On Monday, all eyes will be on Shanghai’s market open and the new private-sector PMI reading set for Feb. 2. Traders want to see if the dip in official data is spilling over — and whether bank stocks attract buyers as a safe bet or face selling pressure over earnings concerns.
