New York, Feb 1, 2026, 11:37 EST — Market closed
- Palantir shares fell 3.4% by Friday’s close, ahead of Monday’s after-hours earnings release.
- Options markets are bracing for a sharp move in the week following earnings.
- With a packed data week ahead, investors are zeroing in on guidance, particularly on commercial growth.
Palantir Technologies shares dropped 3.4% on Friday, closing at $146.59. U.S. markets remained closed on Sunday as investors gear up for the company’s upcoming quarterly report early next week.
This is crucial now since Palantir’s trading mirrors that of a high-conviction AI stock: it can brush off setbacks—until suddenly it can’t. Investors have shown they’re quick to slam expensive software names the moment guidance softens or growth misses the “better than expected” mark, even if it’s still solid.
Options — contracts allowing investors to hedge or speculate on price moves — suggest the stock could jump at least 9% by next week’s close, based on current pricing. Visible Alpha’s analysts forecast a record fourth-quarter revenue around $1.34 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.23 per share. Ratings are roughly evenly split between buy and hold.
Palantir announced via Nasdaq it plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Monday, Feb. 2, after the U.S. market closes. A webcast will follow at 5 p.m. ET.
The report will probably matter less for the headline numbers and more for management’s comments on the upcoming quarters. Traders are focused on how quickly the commercial side is growing, the costs involved in securing that business, and the performance of the more stable government segment.
Palantir competes in a packed field of data and AI software providers. When valuation questions arise, investors often compare its growth and margins to peers like Snowflake Inc. and C3.ai Inc.
At January’s World Economic Forum in Davos, CEO Alex Karp declared that “the demand for our product in America is greater than we can satisfy,” a statement investors will be watching closely for in upcoming guidance. Reuters
But the situation can backfire. Palantir proved that even a beat doesn’t guarantee a lift when expectations are sky-high: in May 2025, the stock plunged over 13% after quarterly results and an upgraded forecast fell short of impressing investors who had already pushed the shares up before the announcement.
A weaker-than-anticipated outlook might prolong the recent slide, with the options market pricing in that risk in real dollars. On the other hand, a more upbeat forecast would shift attention to how long Palantir can keep growing commercial revenue without sacrificing profitability.
Traders are zeroed in on one key macro event beyond individual company news: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January jobs report on Friday, Feb. 6. This report frequently rattles interest-rate expectations and tends to impact the most rate-sensitive growth stocks.
Palantir’s next big moment comes Monday after the close, when it reports earnings and updates guidance. Then management will host a webcast. Investors will be tuned in, hunting for any shifts in growth outlook or changes that could impact the stock’s valuation case.
