New York, Feb 6, 2026, 15:20 ET — Regular session
- Illumina shares dropped roughly 10% in afternoon trading after the company laid out its 2026 targets.
- Gene-sequencing company is projecting revenue of $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion for 2026, alongside a non-GAAP EPS range of $5.05 to $5.20.
- Management pointed to some progress on exports in China, though they noted approvals for instrument purchases remain outstanding.
Illumina (ILMN) tumbled 10.3% to $119.91 on Friday, hitting a low of $117.69, as investors digested the gene-sequencing company’s 2026 forecast released alongside its earnings.
This matters: Illumina’s outlook is among the earliest signals for 2026 demand in sequencing equipment and the pricier consumables used with them. Earnings hinge on that pipeline, but shifts in lab and hospital budgets can throw it off course.
China remains an open question, and the company’s now bringing proteomics into the mix. For traders, it comes down to this: Can solid clinical testing make up for research demand that’s still hit-or-miss?
Illumina posted a 5% gain in fourth-quarter revenue, reaching $1.16 billion. Revenue outside China climbed 8% to $1.10 billion. For the full year, revenue came in flat at $4.34 billion. The company is guiding for 2026 revenue of $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion, with ex-China organic growth expected between 2% and 4%, and a non-GAAP operating margin in the 23.3% to 23.5% range. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is forecast at $5.05 to $5.20, factoring in $0.18 dilution from the SomaLogic deal that just closed. CEO Jacob Thaysen described it as a “strong finish to 2025” as clinical markets picked up. 1
Illumina, in that same statement, noted that China’s Ministry of Commerce has lifted its export ban on the company’s sequencers. However, Illumina hasn’t been removed from China’s Unreliable Entities List—purchases of its instruments still need official approval. The company also flagged the rollout of its BioInsight data business, which includes a “Billion Cell Atlas” product developed with early partners AstraZeneca, Merck, and Eli Lilly. Genomics veteran Eric Green steps in as chief medical officer.
Speaking after the results, Thaysen told analysts the company is looking for “organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% in 2026, excluding China.” Research and applied consumables? Those are headed for a mid- to high-single digit drop, while instrument sales are likely to stay flat or slip a bit. CFO Ankur Dhingra added that China sales would drag on overall revenue growth by a percentage point, with no bump in China instrument sales seen for the first half. Illumina also projected first-quarter revenue between $1.06 billion and $1.08 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected in a $1.02 to $1.07 range. The company repurchased $42 million in shares for the quarter. 2
Non-GAAP figures strip out certain expenses that, according to management, obscure the real trend. Illumina expects SomaLogic to boost reported growth, though it’s set to drag on profit, trimming the 2026 margin by roughly 100 basis points, or one percentage point.
Illumina’s model depends heavily on consumables pull-through—recurring revenue from its installed base—and on the pace at which customers adopt its latest machines. Sequencing rivals aren’t letting up: Oxford Nanopore and Pacific Biosciences keep advancing in long-read tech, while Thermo Fisher and other big players offer their own systems.
The forecast, though, doesn’t allow much margin for any missteps in China. Approvals or trade tensions could throw off instrument sales—or shift when customers decide to buy. If research budgets shrink further, or if consumables get hit by stiffer pricing pressure, that margin narrative could come under strain.
Next up for Illumina: potential China approval news and initial BioInsight performance, with eyes on the February industry lineup. Illumina appears on the docket for the Advances in Genome Biology and Technology (AGBT) conference, set for Orlando, Feb. 23-26. 3
