NEW DELHI, Feb 6, 2026, 12:01 (IST)
- Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said India and the United States are set to sign a formal trade deal in March.
- GST investigators nabbed four men in a ₹250-crore areca nut tax evasion case, while Kanpur police detained seven suspects linked to a ₹7.03-crore fake-invoice scam.
- ITC shares lagged despite a boost in sentiment from trade-deal optimism, prompting a fund manager to share a film meme.
India and the United States aim to finalize a formal trade agreement in March, Trade Minister Piyush Goyal announced, marking the first official timeline for a deal that would slash U.S. tariffs on Indian exports from 50% down to 18%.
The timing is crucial as the deal now directly influences India’s growth prospects and market sentiment, following weeks of tariff swings and recent tax tweaks domestically. Investors are scrambling to decode what “18%” actually implies across different sectors, even as enforcement agencies step up efforts to plug leaks in the goods and services tax system.
Goyal said a joint statement is expected within four or five days, with the formal agreement taking 30–45 days to finalize. He added India plans to cut tariffs on U.S. goods and purchase around $500 billion in U.S. products over the next five years, including $70–80 billion worth of Boeing aircraft.
India’s central bank held its key repo rate steady at 5.25% on Friday, highlighting a drop in tariff pressures following a U.S. trade deal. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra acknowledged that “external headwinds have intensified,” but said the agreement “augurs well for the economy.” The bank kept its policy stance at “neutral,” indicating no immediate move to tighten. Reuters
ITC shares stayed flat near 314.90 rupees early Tuesday, even as broader markets pushed higher. Fund manager Gurmeet Chadha took to social media with a “Mughal-e-Azam” meme, captioned: “Utho ITC.. ab toh India US trade deal bhi ho gayee.. :)” The Economic Times
ITC, India’s largest cigarette producer with a significant consumer goods arm, faces headwinds after the government hiked cigarette taxes. The new excise duty ranges from 2,050 to 8,500 rupees per 1,000 sticks, depending on length, added on top of GST. According to Reuters, total cigarette taxes now run about 53% of retail prices in India—still shy of the World Health Organization’s 75% target designed to curb smoking.
Tax officials have arrested four Delhi residents in a major bust of a multi-state areca nut syndicate, the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) in Meerut announced. Authorities say the network has already defrauded the exchequer of ₹250 crore.
Officials allege the group moved areca nut valued at nearly ₹5,000 crore to pan masala makers, disguising the trade as business-to-consumer sales—retail transactions—while the supplies actually went to major manufacturers. The raw areca nut, or betel nut, was procured from several states and funneled through Delhi without proper tax paperwork, the report stated.
Police in Kanpur arrested seven individuals for allegedly stealing input tax credit—a GST scheme allowing firms to offset tax paid on inputs—by setting up fake companies and issuing bogus invoices without actual transactions. Senior Superintendent of Police Brijesh Kumar Srivastava put the estimated government revenue loss at around ₹7.03 crore. Authorities also confiscated a laptop, counterfeit GST invoices and e-bills, along with a car missing its number plate.
The risk for markets and policymakers is that the fine print remains scarce for too long. The trade deal is under domestic political pressure over U.S. farm product access, while the GST cases are still in their infancy and could expand, increasing the amounts claimed—or end up in court.
Goyal is pledging a joint statement in the coming days, with a signed agreement expected by March. At the same time, enforcement agencies are making it clear that tax compliance will be monitored as closely as tariff negotiations proceed.
