NEW YORK, August 5, 2026, 11:11 a.m. EDT — U.S. markets opened lower.
- IonQ stock declined by 4.6% to $39.79, easing back after a 14.5% gain over the previous two sessions.
- Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $66.42 million, representing an increase of roughly 221% from a year earlier.
- An initial valuation estimate values IonQ at approximately 56 times its standalone sales forecast for 2026. Factoring in SkyWater’s previous revenue brings that multiple down to around 21 times.
IonQ shares pulled back on Wednesday while investors awaited second-quarter earnings after the market closed. Despite the drop, the stock was still up 9.2% from its closing price on Friday.
The earnings call is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EDT. The quarter concluded on June 30, and IonQ finalized its SkyWater acquisition on July 31. As a result, Q2 results will serve as a clear measure of IonQ’s performance prior to the acquisition.
The difference is significant. With a market capitalization of $14.77 billion, IonQ is valued at close to 55.7 times the midpoint of its independent 2026 revenue projection. This estimate, released by management in May, did not factor in SkyWater.
| IonQ share performance | Price | Session move |
|---|---|---|
| Close on July 31 | $36.44 | — |
| Close on August 3 | $38.85 | +6.6% |
| Close on August 4 | $41.72 | +7.4% |
| Latest on August 5 | $39.79 | -4.6% |
| Change since July 31 | — | +9.2% |
Recent closing figures and up-to-date market information. Percentages reflect calculated changes based on reported prices.
Monday’s gains were not triggered by a significant new IonQ contract. According to Benzinga, the rally was linked to increased appetite for growth stocks, positioning ahead of earnings, and rising optimism across the quantum industry.
The boost for the sector came after D-Wave Quantum NASDAQ:QBTS reached a deal with AT&T NYSE:T. AT&T reported an initial implementation shortened one optimization process from nearly an hour to fewer than 15 seconds. The companies did not reveal the value of the contract.
Wedbush’s Matt Bryson has initiated coverage on IonQ with an Outperform recommendation and set a price target of $75, representing an increase of about 88% over the company’s most recent share price. According to Google Finance, out of nine analysts covering IonQ, seven rate the stock as Buy and two as Hold, with the group’s average price target standing at $69.31.
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | Target | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Bryson | Wedbush | Outperform | $75.00 | August 3 |
| John McPeake | Rosenblatt | Buy | $100.00 | July 29 |
| Nehal Chokshi | Northland | Outperform | $70.00 | June 22 |
| Joseph Moore | Morgan Stanley | Equal-weight | $48.50 | May 7 |
| Peter Peng | J.P. Morgan | Neutral | $50.00 | May 7 |
Current analyst ratings as tracked by various aggregators. Analyst coverage may vary.
Analyst projections are concentrated close to the company’s guidance range, with consensus at $66.42 million, nearly matching the $66.5 million midpoint targeted by management.
| Earnings measure | Reported, guided or estimated value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 revenue | $20.69 million | Reference period |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $64.67 million | Gain of 755% year-on-year |
| Q2 2026 company guidance | $65 million-$68 million | Increase of 0.5% to 5.2% on a sequential basis |
| Q2 2026 consensus estimate | $66.42 million | Rise of 221% year-on-year |
| FY2026 revenue guidance | $260 million-$270 million | Issued as standalone guidance |
| Q1 remaining performance obligations | $470 million | Equals 1.77 times the FY guidance midpoint |
Consensus data are early projections. Figures are derived from company financials and available market forecasts.
The consensus points to just 2.7% growth in revenue from the previous quarter. A modest headline beat may thus have limited impact. Key drivers of the broader response will likely include guidance, contract conversion, and organic bookings.
IonQ’s remaining performance obligations amount to $470 million, offering visibility but not guaranteeing specific timing each quarter. This figure represented nearly 1.8 times the midpoint of the company’s annual sales outlook.
Losses remain large. IonQ reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $96.8 million for Q1. The company maintained its full-year adjusted loss outlook of $310 million to $330 million. As of March 31, cash, equivalents and investments stood at $3.1 billion, prior to the SkyWater closing payment.
SkyWater Technology, previously listed under NASDAQ:SKYT, reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $442.1 million. The company recorded a full-year gross margin of 19.7%, declining to 14.9% in the fourth quarter.
SkyWater shareholders received $15 in cash plus 0.4883 IonQ shares per SkyWater share in the transaction. Chief Executive Niccolo de Masi stated that the merger would “secure a fully scalable supply chain domestically.” IonQ Investors
| Preliminary valuation bridge | Value |
|---|---|
| IonQ’s current market value | $14.77 billion |
| IonQ FY2026 midpoint forecast | $265 million |
| Market value versus IonQ guidance | 55.7 times |
| SkyWater projected revenue FY2025 | $442.1 million |
| Estimated combined revenue figure | $707.1 million |
| Market value versus estimated total | 20.9 times |
| IonQ projected gross margin Q1 2026 | 23.8% |
| SkyWater gross margin forecast FY2025 | 19.7% |
| SkyWater gross margin Q4 2025 | 14.9% |
This is an early estimate, not official guidance. It merges IonQ’s projected 2026 midpoint figure with SkyWater’s 2025 revenue, excluding factors like timing, purchase accounting, eliminations, debt, and integration expenses.
The reduction in the apparent multiple is due to mechanical factors. While SkyWater increases scale, its foundry sales bring lower margins. Investors will require a merged outlook to accurately compare valuations.
Quantum-related stocks moved downward on Wednesday as well. D-Wave, Rigetti Computing NASDAQ:RGTI, and Quantum Computing Inc. NASDAQ:QUBT all posted declines, suggesting profit taking across the sector.
| Quantum stock | Latest price | Daily move | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| IonQ | $39.79 | down 4.6% | $14.77 billion |
| D-Wave Quantum | $21.30 | fell 2.4% | $7.84 billion |
| Rigetti Computing | $16.80 | lost 3.8% | $5.64 billion |
| Quantum Computing Inc. | $8.89 | declined 3.7% | $1.99 billion |
Most recent intraday data provided.
IonQ said on Tuesday it has entered a memorandum of understanding with Sandia National Laboratories. The agreement focuses on quantum-system co-design for national security purposes. The release did not specify a contract value, meaning it cannot yet be counted as incremental bookings.
Risks: IonQ continues to post significant adjusted losses. Rapid sales gains could be offset by factors such as contract timing, technical setbacks, expenses from acquisitions and dilution of shares. The addition of SkyWater increases exposure to foundry cycles and brings in revenue with slimmer margins.
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