KE Holdings (BEKE) Stock Slides as Buybacks Accelerate: What Q3 2025 Earnings and China’s Housing Slump Mean for Investors

Published 9 December 2025

KE Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BEKE), the Chinese online and offline housing platform behind Lianjia and Beike, is back in the spotlight as its stock trades lower today despite aggressive share repurchases and steady revenue growth.

On Tuesday, BEKE gapped down at the open, sliding from a previous close of about $17.08 to an open near $16.35, with intraday trading around $16.27 and more than 1 million shares changing hands. ^[1] In parallel, a Nasdaq/ETF Channel note highlighted that BEKE was among the notable decliners inside the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), with the stock down roughly 4.8% on the day. ^[2]

That sets the stage for a classic market puzzle: rising buybacks and solid revenue vs. falling earnings and a structurally weak housing market.

Today’s Move: Gap Down Amid ETF Flows

MarketBeat reported that KE Holdings’ ADR gapped down before Tuesday’s session, with the stock opening significantly below Monday’s close and trading lower through the morning. ^[3]

At the same time, ETF Channel data showed large inflows into VXUS, yet BEKE – one of its underlying holdings – traded lower, underscoring stock-specific concerns despite broader international ETF demand. ^[4]

Key takeaways from today’s trading action:

Price action: BEKE is trading in the mid-$16 range, down around mid-single digits percentage-wise intraday. ^[5]
ETF context: VXUS saw substantial unit creation week-over-week, but BEKE is still under pressure, suggesting investors are reacting more to company fundamentals and China property headlines than passive flows. ^[6]

Q3 2025: Revenue Up, Profits Down

The most recent fundamental data point is KE Holdings’ third-quarter 2025 unaudited results, released on 10 November.

According to the company’s release and third-party summaries:

Gross transaction value (GTV) was about RMB 736.7 billion (US$103.5 billion), roughly flat year-on-year.
- Existing home GTV rose about 5.8%, but
- New home GTV fell roughly 13.7%, reflecting the pressure on developers. ^[7]
Net revenues came in around RMB 23.1 billion (US$3.2 billion), up about 2.1% from the same quarter in 2024. ^[8]
Net income dropped to roughly RMB 747 million, down sharply from ~RMB 1.17 billion a year earlier.
Adjusted net income fell about 27.8% year-on-year to RMB 1.29 billion. ^[9]

So the story isn’t “growth is dead” – revenue is still inching up – but margins are compressing. KE is doing more business in a tougher market and getting paid relatively less for it.

On the earnings call, management emphasized continued investment in technology, AI-driven agent tools, and expansion of rental and renovation services, while acknowledging the persistent drag from China’s weak housing cycle. ^[10]

Buybacks: US$675 Million Repurchased and Counting

Despite macro headwinds, KE Holdings is leaning on its balance sheet to support shareholders.

From company disclosures and subsequent analysis:

In Q3 2025, KE allocated about US$281 million to share repurchases. ^[11]
By the end of the quarter, cumulative repurchases in 2025 had reached roughly US$675 million, up about 15–16% year-on-year. ^[12]
Additional November buybacks included multiple transactions, such as a repurchase of over 516,000 shares on 21 November and further purchases later in the month as part of its capital return plan. ^[13]

A TipRanks auto-generated note on 8 December framed the November repurchases as part of KE’s broader objective to “optimize its equity structure” and potentially enhance shareholder value. However, it also flagged that the stock screens with: ^[14]

Strong revenue growth and better operational efficiency, especially in rentals
Declining profitability margins
A high price/earnings (P/E) ratio and bearish technical indicators, prompting a cautious, neutral stance from its AI-driven model

Simply Wall St / Sahm Capital commentary echoed this blend of optimism and caution, noting that buybacks and an asset-light approach in rentals and renovation are improving segment margins, yet these positives are fighting an uphill battle against a structurally weak property market. ^[15]

Macro Backdrop: China Housing Still Under Pressure

If KE Holdings were a boat, China’s housing market is the ocean it floats on – and that ocean is choppy.

A Reuters poll conducted between 17 November and 3 December 2025 forecasts: ^[16]

China home prices to fall about 3.7% in 2025,
A further 2.8% drop expected in 2026,
Only stabilization by around 2027.

Analysts in that survey highlighted several structural drags:

Aging population
Job and income uncertainty
Poor affordability in some cities
High inventories and ongoing developer stress

In practice, this means:

Transactions are likely to remain volume-constrained.
Buyers and sellers are more cautious, extending sales cycles.
Policy support has been incremental rather than “big bazooka.”

Several equity research notes have therefore kept BEKE at “Hold” or cautious “Buy”, arguing that even well-run platforms can’t fully escape a multi-year housing downcycle. A recent Seeking Alpha article, for instance, reiterated a Hold rating on KE, pointing out that operational improvements may not translate into a strong stock performance if the macro backdrop stays weak. ^[17]

Valuation Snapshot: High P/E, Modest P/S

Valuation metrics for KE Holdings are a bit split-personality:

One coverage source pegs BEKE at a trailing P/E of around 106–107 and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio near 1.36, with forward multiples still elevated versus global real estate peers. ^[18]

In plain terms:

The stock isn’t cheap on earnings, because profits have compressed more than the share price.
On sales, however, the valuation looks much more reasonable – especially for a platform with strong brand recognition and significant market share in an important sector.

That disconnect is exactly what makes BEKE polarizing: bulls see a scaled platform with upside if margins normalize; bears see a rich multiple on shrinking earnings in a structurally challenged market.

Wall Street View: Mostly Positive, But Targets Edge Lower

Despite the recent selloff and macro worries, BEKE still enjoys generally supportive analyst coverage.

Different aggregators give slightly different snapshots, but the broad picture is:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Breakdown: 5 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell
- Average 12-month price target: about $23.30, implying substantial upside from current mid-$16 levels. ^[19]
Investing.com consensus:
- Rating: Strong Buy
- Average target: around $20.4 over 12 months
- Range: roughly $15–25 per share. ^[20]
StockAnalysis.com:
- Rating: Strong Buy across 5 covering analysts
- Average target: about $24.36
- Target range:$22–27, implying potential upside of around 40%+. ^[21]
Intellectia AI:
- Analyst-based target: ~$20.68, with a low of $18 and high of $25;
- Rating skew: 5 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell, summarized as Strong Buy. ^[22]
Fintel analyst target revision:
- Average one-year price target recently trimmed from about $23.98 to $20.64, with most recent targets clustered between $19.60 and $21.94 – still implying upside from current levels, but less than earlier in 2025. ^[23]

So, the center of gravity for professional forecasts is somewhere in the high teens to mid-20s, with most analysts seeing 20–50% upside over 12 months – but note that several targets have been nudged down as the year has progressed.

Quant & Retail Forecast Models: Very Bullish, Very Speculative

Beyond Wall Street, a range of quantitative and algorithmic sites publish projections for BEKE. These are not the same as fundamental analyst research, but they often get attention in retail trading circles.

Examples:

PandaForecast recently projected a short-term target of about $18.8 around late November 2025, with “positive dynamics” but modest near-term upside. ^[24]
Hexn.io and similar platforms project extremely optimistic long-term paths, with hypothetical 2030–2034 prices in the $60–200+ range based on technical and statistical modeling. ^[25]

These outputs can be interesting as scenario fodder, but they rely heavily on trend extrapolation and should be treated as working hypotheses, not destiny.

SWOT Snapshot: Strengths and Structural Risks

A recent SWOT analysis of KE highlights the split between company-specific positives and sector-wide risks: ^[26]

Strengths & opportunities

Leading brand (Lianjia) and broad Beike ecosystem in China’s housing market
Growing rental and home renovation business, where asset-light models improve margins
Strong tech and data capabilities, making it harder for smaller brokers to compete
Capital return via hundreds of millions in annual buybacks

Weaknesses & threats

Rapidly weakening property market since mid-2025
Intensifying competition from other real estate platforms and traditional brokerages
Regulatory and policy uncertainty in China’s housing and internet sectors
Earnings volatility due to cyclical and policy-driven swings in transaction volumes

This duality explains why some investors view BEKE as a strategic long-term platform bet, while others worry it could remain “cheap for a reason” if China’s property drag persists.

What Could Move BEKE Next?

Looking ahead from December 9, 2025, several catalysts and watchpoints stand out:

China property policy and data
- Any major stimulus for housing, easing of purchase restrictions, or stronger credit support to developers could lift transaction volumes and sentiment.
- Conversely, weaker-than-expected price data or further developer defaults could weigh on broker volumes and valuations.
Q4 2025 and FY 2025 results
- Investors will watch whether margin compression stabilizes or worsens.
- Updates on rental and renovation segments will be closely parsed, given management’s emphasis on these as growth and margin engines.
Pace and size of further buybacks
- With roughly US$675 million already repurchased year-to-date by Q3 and more in November, any extension or scaling up of the program could provide technical support – especially at current depressed prices. ^[27]
Analyst target revisions
- Price targets have already drifted down across some platforms. Fresh downgrades or target cuts could pressure the stock, while reiterations of Strong Buy ratings might help form a floor.

Bottom Line: A Quality Platform Trapped in a Tough Cycle

On 9 December 2025, KE Holdings sits in a curious spot:

The business is still growing revenues and expanding asset-light segments.
The balance sheet is strong enough to fund substantial buybacks.
Analysts, on average, see double-digit to high double-digit percentage upside from here.

Yet:

Earnings are under pressure, and margins have clearly rolled over in 2025.
The China housing market is expected to stay weak into at least 2026, with only gradual stabilization in sight. ^[28]
Valuation still looks demanding on an earnings basis, even after the recent pullback. ^[29]

For long-term investors who believe in a slow normalization of China’s housing sector, BEKE remains a high-beta platform play on that thesis. For more cautious traders, Tuesday’s gap-down – in the face of ongoing buybacks and supportive analyst targets – is a reminder that macro tides can drown even well-run ships.