New York, July 10, 2026, 07:38 EDT
Keel Infrastructure Corp. NASDAQ:KEEL rose 1.7% to $4.92 in premarket trading on Friday, after gaining 6.1% to $4.84 in the previous session. The shares have recovered 9.0% over two days, though they remain about 34% below the intraday peak of $7.37 reached on June 22. Nasdaq’s regular session had not yet opened.
The pressing question is not whether Keel controls enough potential power. It is how much of that power investors should count before the company signs long-term data-center leases. Based on Thursday’s roughly $2.93 billion market value, a simple equity-value-per-megawatt calculation — market capitalization divided by power capacity, rather than enterprise value — produces sharply different results depending on the denominator.
| Capacity counted | Megawatts | What is included | Implied equity value per MW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-term U.S. secured gross capacity | 478 | Panther Creek, Sharon and Moses Lake | About $6.13 million |
| All secured gross capacity | 648 | Near-term U.S. sites plus secured Quebec capacity | About $4.52 million |
| Full identified pipeline | 2,161 | Includes 1,513 MW of additional, unsecured capacity | About $1.36 million |
Calculations use Keel’s July 9 market capitalization and the capacity categories in its latest annual filing. Figures are rounded.
That 4.5-fold spread is the core valuation risk. The lowest figure assumes Keel eventually commercializes capacity that is still subject to utility studies, generation plans or other development work. Gross capacity also measures total site power, before electricity used for cooling and other infrastructure, so it cannot be compared directly with the power ultimately available to computing equipment.
The appointment this week of Ganesh Aiyer as president puts that conversion task under a new executive. Aiyer, previously chief business officer at Digital Realty Trust NYSE:DLR, will lead Keel’s commercial and pipeline expansion work. He said his aim was to “convert our power portfolio into long-term partnerships.”
Some of KEEL’s latest rise appears to reflect broader buying in former bitcoin miners repositioning themselves as AI-infrastructure developers. Cipher Mining NASDAQ:CIFR gained 6.5% on Thursday and advanced another 1.3% before Friday’s opening bell. Hut 8 NASDAQ:HUT was also up 1.3% premarket after a nearly flat Thursday close. The parallel moves suggest KEEL’s rebound was not solely a response to company-specific developments.
| Company | July 9 close | July 9 move | Latest premarket price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keel Infrastructure | $4.84 | +6.14% | $4.92, +1.65% |
| Cipher Mining | $23.26 | +6.45% | $23.56, +1.29% |
| Hut 8 | $106.22 | +0.10% | $107.64, +1.34% |
Premarket quotes were recorded between 07:33 and 07:35 EDT. Trading before regular exchange hours typically has fewer buyers and sellers, so prices can move more sharply.
The commercial gap with some peers remains wide. TeraWulf NASDAQ:WULF said this week it signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic covering about 401 MW of critical IT load — power delivered to computing hardware — and roughly $19 billion of contracted revenue. Hut 8 has disclosed a 15-year lease for 352 MW of IT capacity with $9.8 billion of base-term value. “Power is the foundational layer,” Hut 8 Chief Executive Asher Genoot said in May, though those contracts show that secured electricity alone is not the finish line. Reuters
Keel has funding to pursue that next step. It reported $533 million of liquidity as of May 8, including $336 million of unrestricted cash and $197 million of unencumbered bitcoin. Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Mir said the amount “fully funds the capital required to advance Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake through lease execution.” Keel subsequently issued $458 million of 1.25% convertible notes due in 2032; convertible notes are debt that may be exchanged for shares. Their initial conversion price is $7.41, leaving Thursday’s stock price about 35% below that level.
But the downside case is that tenant decisions, permits or power connections take longer than planned. Keel’s first-quarter revenue fell 23% to $37 million and its operating loss widened to $98 million, while 1,513 MW of the identified pipeline was not classified as secured gross capacity in the annual filing. Delays would keep development spending ahead of lease income and make the $6.13 million valuation per near-term secured megawatt harder to defend.
The next firm signal is likely to be a signed lease or another utility and permitting milestone at one of the three near-term U.S. sites. Until then, KEEL’s two-day bounce shows investors remain willing to buy the sector. The 4.5-fold valuation range shows how much still depends on Aiyer turning potential power into contracted revenue.
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