SEOUL, August 16, 2026, 01:29 KST — Cash trading in South Korea is suspended due to the holiday weekend.
- The KOSPI rose 11.5%, marking its best weekly performance in two months.
- The index is still roughly 25% under its closing high from June.
- Seoul will remain shut on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday.
South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 11.5% over the past week, snapping a run of seven consecutive weekly losses. Despite the strong recovery, the index remains about 25% under its June closing high.
The significance of that gap outweighs the recent technical bull-market designation. When markets recover 20% following a sharp decline, much of the previous losses remain. To fully offset a 25% drop, the market would require an additional 34% increase.
The rally is still notably focused. Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 and SK Hynix KRX:000660 were responsible for 71% of the KOSPI’s losses in July. As a result, their recovery significantly impacts the broader index.
| KOSPI milestone | Index level or move | Derived signal |
|---|---|---|
| June 22 session high close | 9,114.56 | Cycle benchmark |
| July 30 session low close | 5,593.56 | -38.6% since peak |
| August 13 settlement | 6,813.34 | +21.8% off trough |
| Most recent weekly change | +11.5% | Best week in two months |
| Shortfall from June close high | Roughly -25% | Recovery still partial |
Initial figures for peak-to-trough declines and recoveries are based on published closing values. MarketWatch observed a surge from 5,593 up to 6,813 in a span of two weeks, marking the start of a technical bull market.
According to Macquarie analysts, the decline in July was largely driven by positioning and fund flows. They stated, “the volatility is over.” By the end of July, selling by foreign and institutional investors had leveled off. Business Insider
| Concentration measure | July decline | Investor meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix | -48% combined | The bulk of the index’s loss came from these two |
| Rest of KOSPI | -26% | Most other KOSPI stocks had a smaller drop |
| Share of KOSPI losses from two chipmakers | 71% | Index moves are strongly tied to performance in memory shares |
| Friday market breadth, early session | 453 advancers; 420 decliners | Gains extended past chipmakers, but just barely |
The most recent session showed broader movement. SK Hynix advanced 3.01%, but Samsung was down 0.37% during early Friday trade. Hyundai Motor KRX:005380 climbed 5.73%, with Kia KRX:000270 up 1.97%.
Cross-asset indicators showed less turbulence. The won firmed, trading at 1,416.3 against the dollar. Korean government bond yields for three-year and 10-year tenors declined slightly, and foreign investors were net buyers with 780.2 billion won.
| Friday cross-asset indicator | Latest published reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI, early trade | 6,868.89 | up 0.82% |
| U.S. dollar / Korean won | 1,416.3 | Won increases 0.16% |
| Three-year Korean Treasury yield | 3.774% | falls 0.6 basis point |
| Ten-year Korean Treasury yield | 4.282% | down 1.1 basis points |
| KOSPI volatility index | 56 | Declines from 98 in late June |
The reaction in both the won and bonds diminishes a near-term risk. Equity advances occurred without the need for a softer currency or increased yields. Overseas inflows indicate reduced reliance on leveraged domestic investors.
Nonetheless, opinions on valuation remain sharply divided. Macquarie’s 8,000 target is just 17% higher than the August 13 close. In contrast, targets from Goldman Sachs and Nomura suggest significantly higher potential gains.
| Analyst recommendation | KOSPI target | Upside from 6,813.34 | Core rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie — bullish | 8,000 | 17.4% | Memory supply tightness and normalization of flows |
| Citi — bullish | 10,000 | 46.8% | Semiconductor profits and government measures |
| Nomura — bullish range | 10,000-11,000 | 46.8%-61.4% | Market pullback seen as excessive |
| Goldman Sachs — overweight | 12,000 | 76.1% | Robust earnings improvement in North Asia |
Citi has increased its target to 10,000, citing improved profit projections and ongoing fiscal backing. Nomura set its recovery band between 10,000 and 11,000. Both outlooks depend on continued strength in the chip sector.
Strategists at Goldman, headed by Timothy Moe, expressed a preference for North Asia, citing robust earnings growth in the region. The firm’s target of 12,000 reflects an expectation that the current memory cycle will extend further than in previous cycles.
The immediate test carries lower stakes. Staying over 6,800 would maintain the rebound pattern. Advancing toward 8,000 would support Macquarie’s more moderate scenario, though the June high would remain unchallenged.
Investors will have to wait, as Seoul’s market is shut on Monday in observance of Liberation Day. The market reopens on Tuesday, when it will become clear if foreign buying continues after a three-day break.
Risks: Another wave of chip selling could swiftly undo the focused recovery. An increase in oil prices would raise Korea’s import costs. Leverage, holiday interruptions, and ambitious analyst targets could intensify any negative surprise.
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