Sydney, Jan 28, 2026, 17:17 (AEDT) — After-hours
- Shares of Macquarie Group fell 1.1% as investors adjusted their outlook on Australian interest rates.
- Inflation running hotter than expected pushed up market bets on an RBA rate hike for the Feb. 3 meeting.
- Traders eye the Aussie dollar hovering close to multi-year highs and monitor shifts in bond yields.
Macquarie Group Ltd shares dropped 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at A$212.84 and wiping out the previous day’s gains after hotter inflation data shifted rate expectations higher. The stock has climbed roughly 6% year-to-date but still sits well below its 12-month peak.
This matters now with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first policy decision just a week off, and the inflation surprise tightened the margin for a smooth lead-up. For financial stocks, even a small tweak in rate forecasts can rapidly reshape how investors value earnings, funding expenses, and risk appetite.
Australia’s “trimmed mean” CPI, a core inflation measure that excludes extreme price changes, climbed 0.9% in the December quarter, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%, above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range, official data revealed. Interest-rate swaps now price in a 73% probability of a rate increase next week. ANZ economist Adam Boyton described any hike as a one-off “insurance” move, not the start of a tightening cycle. Reuters
The broader market brushed off the news. The ASX 200 slipped 0.09% to close at 8,933.9. The Australian dollar held steady just below 70 U.S. cents, retreating after an earlier rally, according to ABC’s market wrap.
Macquarie didn’t put out any new information to move the market. The ASX’s company announcements page confirms MQG made no disclosures on Wednesday.
The stock’s tape remains volatile amid macro headlines. It climbed 2.27% the previous day, then fluctuated between A$211.83 and A$215.00 on Wednesday, ultimately closing lower, according to price data.
Macquarie Bank has raised its top one-year term deposit rate to 4.50% for balances from A$5,000 up to A$1 million, according to Savings.com.au. This shift could signal early bets on tighter monetary policy—or simply ramped-up competition for deposits.
The most recent key trigger for Macquarie was its November half-year earnings, which showed a 3% profit increase but fell short of forecasts due to softer commodities and markets trading income. The company also announced a larger share buyback. Shares plunged on the news before finding a foothold in the ensuing weeks.
Investors remain focused on familiar factors: the Australian rates curve and the currency. Macquarie’s sizable offshore operations mean a stronger Aussie dollar can shrink the value of its foreign earnings once converted back to local currency.
The macro reset works both ways. Higher rates might boost certain banking income, but they also push up wholesale funding costs, weigh on asset values, and dampen dealmaking — all factors that can hurt investment banks and asset managers.
All eyes turn to the RBA’s decision on Tuesday, Feb. 3. Investors will watch for any clues on whether inflation is stubborn enough to warrant further tightening.
