Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) Stock Outlook for December 2025: Qube Bid, Nomura Deal and 2026 Forecast

Sydney – 2 December 2025

Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG), Australia’s best‑known investment bank and global infrastructure investor, enters December 2025 in the middle of a major strategic reshaping. The stock is trading around A$193–194 per share, down roughly 10–14% for the year and well below its 2025 highs above A$240, leaving it mid‑range in a 52‑week band of about A$160 to A$243. ^[1]

At the same time, Macquarie has:

Reported first‑half FY2026 (1H26) profit of A$1.66 billion, up 3% year on year but below market expectations. ^[2]
Declared an interim dividend of A$2.80 per share, 35% franked, and extended its A$2 billion on‑market buyback. ^[3]
Launched an A$11.6 billion bid for logistics group Qube Holdings, in what would be one of the largest Australian deals of 2025. ^[4]
Completed the US$1.8 billion sale of its US and European public asset‑management business to Nomura, shifting its asset mix further towards alternatives. ^[5]
Led a US$40 billion sale of Aligned Data Centers, one of the largest transactions ever in global data centres, crystallising large performance fees. ^[6]

Against this backdrop, analysts still see upside, but they are increasingly split between “Buy” and “Hold” as profits become more cyclical and regulatory risks accumulate.

Macquarie share price in early December 2025

Real‑time data from Australian market platforms shows Macquarie trading just above A$193 per share on 2 December 2025. ^[7]

Key performance markers:

Year‑to‑date (2025): down about 10–11%. ^[8]
Current financial year (FY26, from 1 April 2025): down roughly 14%. ^[9]
52‑week range: approximately A$160–242.90 per share. ^[10]

Technical indicators lean cautious. TipRanks’ technical summary shows MQG trading below both its 50‑day and 100‑day simple moving averages (around the mid‑A$210s), generating a short‑term “Sell” signal from trend models. ^[11] Quant service StockInvest, by contrast, estimates a “fair” opening price for 2 December near A$196.90, suggesting only modest upside in the very near term. ^[12]

On fundamentals, multiple data providers put Macquarie on roughly 17–21 times trailing earnings and around 16–18 times forward earnings, with a price‑to‑book ratio close to 2.1–2.2x. ^[13] Stockopedia currently categorises the shares as “Neutral”. ^[14]

1H26 results: modest growth, earnings miss and a fatter dividend

Macquarie’s 1H26 result for the half‑year to 30 September 2025 is the central reference point for today’s valuation debate.

Headline numbers

According to Macquarie’s interim report and ASX filings:

Net profit after tax: A$1,655 million, up 3% on 1H25. ^[15]
Net operating income: A$8,691 million, up about 6% year on year. ^[16]
Earnings per share: A$4.37, also up 3% on the prior corresponding period. ^[17]

However, analysts had pencilled in profit closer to A$1.86 billion, meaning the reported figure fell well short of consensus. ^[18]

Divisional performance was sharply mixed:

Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): profit up about 40–43%, driven by performance fees from digital‑infrastructure assets including AirTrunk and Aligned Data Centers. ^[19]
Banking and Financial Services (BFS): profit up more than 20%, supported by strong home‑loan and deposit growth; Macquarie’s mortgage market share is now roughly 6.5%. ^[20]
Macquarie Capital: profit up around 90%, reflecting higher M&A and capital‑markets activity. ^[21]
Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): earnings down about 15%, hit by softer trading conditions and lower income from North American gas and power. ^[22]

Financial Times and Reuters both highlighted the commodities slowdown and a A$152 million write‑down on US renewable assets, notably offshore wind, as key reasons the result missed expectations and why the share price dropped between 5–7% immediately after the announcement. ^[23]

Dividend and buyback

Macquarie declared an interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share, 35% franked, up from A$2.60 a year earlier. ^[24]

The payout ratio for the half is around 64%. ^[25]
The dividend will be paid on 17 December 2025 to shareholders on the register as of 18 November 2025. ^[26]
The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) remains in place, with shares acquired on‑market rather than issued at a discount, limiting dilution. ^[27]

Macquarie also extended its A$2 billion on‑market share buyback through to 31 October 2026, signalling confidence in its capital position despite higher risk‑weighted assets and regulatory scrutiny. ^[28]

Morningstar notes that while the result showed robust contributions from the asset‑management and retail‑banking arms, the reaction in the share price reflects investor concern that returns on equity are trending lower, and that profits are now more dependent on episodic performance fees and deals. ^[29]

Big strategic moves reshaping Macquarie

A$11.6 billion Qube bid: doubling down on logistics infrastructure

On 24 November 2025, Macquarie Asset Management launched an all‑cash bid for Qube Holdings, Australia’s largest integrated import‑export logistics operator. ^[30]

Key deal terms:

Offer price: A$5.20 per Qube share.
Equity value: about A$9.2 billion.
Enterprise value including debt: about A$11.6 billion.
Premium: roughly 28% to Qube’s pre‑bid closing price of A$4.07. ^[31]

Qube’s board has granted Macquarie exclusive due diligence for several weeks and signalled support in the absence of a superior proposal, although there remains scope for rival bidders, particularly in global infrastructure and logistics, to emerge. ^[32]

For Macquarie, Qube would:

Expand exposure to ports, rail terminals and bulk‑handling facilities across Australia and New Zealand. ^[33]
Deepen its footprint in critical supply‑chain infrastructure, a sector that has attracted strong interest from long‑term capital. ^[34]

Analysts have flagged the bid as both a logical redeployment of proceeds from recent asset disposals and a test of capital discipline, given the rich valuation multiple implied by the offer. ^[35]

US$1.8 billion Nomura deal: reshaping asset‑management mix

On 1 December 2025, Nomura announced completion of its US$1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie’s US and European public asset‑management business, bringing about US$166 billion of client assets into Nomura Asset Management. ^[36]

The transaction:

Transfers Macquarie’s public‑markets equities, fixed‑income and multi‑asset strategies in those regions to Nomura.
Establishes a distribution partnership between the two groups, including the potential for Nomura to help distribute Macquarie’s private‑markets funds to high‑net‑worth investors. TS2 Tech+1

For Macquarie, the sale reduces exposure to fee‑sensitive public products and concentrates the asset‑management arm further in alternative assets, infrastructure and private markets, where margins and performance fees are typically higher but earnings are lumpier. TS2 Tech+2Kalkine Media+2

US$40 billion Aligned Data Centers sale: realising AI‑infrastructure gains

In October 2025, Macquarie Asset Management and co‑investors agreed to sell Aligned Data Centers at an enterprise value of about US$40 billion, in a consortium deal involving BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, Microsoft, Nvidia and AIP/MGX. ^[37]

Macquarie describes Aligned as one of the largest data‑centre transactions on record. The deal has:

Generated substantial performance fees that buoyed 1H26 asset‑management earnings. ^[38]
Demonstrated Macquarie’s infrastructure model of originate, scale, monetise and recycle capital into new platforms – a pattern investors now expect to repeat in digital infrastructure and the energy transition. TS2 Tech+2Macquarie+2

Energy transition pipeline: Carmody Hill and beyond

Macquarie remains heavily invested in renewables despite the write‑down on some offshore wind assets. ^[39]

Recent developments include:

Carmody Hill Wind Farm (South Australia): Macquarie‑backed Aula Energy has secured a 15‑year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Snowy Hydro for about 120 MW, nearly half of the project’s 256 MW capacity. Supply is expected to commence around 2029. ^[40]
Snowy Hydro has separately emphasised that the deal supports its role in enabling new renewable capacity and firming products across the National Electricity Market. ^[41]

These projects align with Macquarie’s stated A$30 billion+ green‑investment portfolio, even as rising capital costs and permitting delays have forced the group to reassess some US and European offshore wind positions. ^[42]

Deposit growth and the “quiet war” in Australian banking

Macquarie’s Banking and Financial Services division has evolved from a niche player into a mainstream competitor in Australian retail banking. Reuters and Morningstar both highlight double‑digit profit growth driven by home‑loan and deposit expansion. ^[43]

A recent sector piece from Kalkine Media describes Macquarie as “making strong progress” in the deposit market, with notable growth among households and businesses attracted by simple, digitally‑delivered products with fewer conditions than the major banks’ offers. ^[44]

The article argues that:

Customers frustrated by complex legacy accounts at larger banks are increasingly switching to Macquarie’s high‑interest, low‑friction offerings.
The big four (CBA, Westpac and peers) have been slow to respond aggressively, opting to protect margins on their huge deposit bases. ^[45]

For equity investors, this matters because stable, low‑cost deposits and mortgage growth can partially offset volatility in markets‑linked businesses such as commodities trading and investment banking.

Regulatory and governance overhangs

While Macquarie’s strategic moves attract headlines, regulators and governance specialists are focused on a different set of issues.

Shield Master Fund remediation and short‑selling case

In September 2025, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) announced that a Macquarie investment‑management unit would repay about A$321 million to nearly 3,000 clients whose retirement savings were invested in the now‑collapsed Shield Master Fund. ^[46]

ASIC has also brought Federal Court action alleging that Macquarie misreported up to A$1.5 billion of short‑sale trades over roughly 15 years, one of several compliance cases involving the group in the last year. ^[47]

Macquarie has agreed to compensate affected Shield investors, strengthen governance processes on its wrap platform and cooperate with regulators, which has limited the push for additional penalties in that case. ^[48]

Executive pay, “first strike” and CFO transition

At the July 2025 AGM, about 25% of shareholders voted against the remuneration report, giving Macquarie a “first strike” under Australian rules and signalling discontent over executive pay against a backdrop of softer earnings and regulatory actions. TS2 Tech+1

Separately:

Long‑serving CFO Alex Harvey has announced he will step down at the end of 2025 and retire in mid‑2026, with deputy CFO Frank Kwok named as successor. ^[49]
Financial Times and Reuters both note that repeated enforcement actions in Australia, the UK and the US have tarnished Macquarie’s reputation for flawless execution and raised questions about whether it still deserves a premium valuation versus global investment‑bank peers. ^[50]

Governance watchers will track the second‑strike risk at the 2026 AGM and any changes to executive‑bonus structures following regulatory outcomes.

What analysts are forecasting for Macquarie (2026 and beyond)

Despite the softer share price, sell‑side analysts remain generally constructive, though more cautious than in prior years.

Price targets and ratings

Across several data providers:

Investing.com consensus (13 analysts):
- Average 12‑month target: A$224.48
- High: A$255
- Low: A$200
- Consensus rating: “Buy” (6 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell). ^[51]
MarketScreener / Moomoo:
- Average target: A$224.48
- 12‑analyst consensus rating: “Outperform”. ^[52]
TradingView & MarketWatch:
- Average target: A$230.7
- Range: A$200–264.98. ^[53]
TipRanks:
- Average target: A$220–221
- Range: roughly A$201–256, implying about 11–12% upside from late‑November prices.
- Overall rating: “Hold” based on eight analyst views in the last three months. ^[54]

In short, the Street sees high single‑ to low double‑digit upside from current levels, but not the kind of deep discount that would attract strong contrarian interest.

Revenue, earnings and ROE forecasts

Analyst consensus and independent platforms outline a moderate growth profile:

Simply Wall St’s “future growth” model estimates that earnings could grow about 9–10% per year and revenue around 5–6% per year over the next few years, with return on equity forecast near 12–13% in three years. ^[55]
Yahoo Finance and other aggregators cite consensus expectations for FY2026 revenue around A$18.5 billion, modestly above the trailing 12‑month figure, with mid‑single‑digit top‑line growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth. ^[56]

Given a current trailing P/E in the high teens and forecast earnings growth in the high single digits, Macquarie trades on what many analysts view as a reasonable, but not obviously cheap, multiple for a cyclical financial group. ^[57]

Key upside and downside risks investors are weighing

Upside drivers

Execution on Qube and other big deals
Successful acquisition and integration of Qube could embed Macquarie more deeply into long‑term logistics infrastructure, potentially supporting higher, more stable fee and investment income. ^[58]
Continued performance‑fee upside from alternatives
If digital infrastructure and energy‑transition assets continue to attract strong valuations, Macquarie’s asset‑management arm could again surprise to the upside on performance fees, as seen with Aligned. ^[59]
Deposit and mortgage growth
Gains in retail deposits and home loans help stabilise earnings and diversify away from volatile markets‑related income, especially if Macquarie continues to win customers from incumbents. ^[60]

Downside risks

Commodities and trading weakness
The underperformance of the Commodities and Global Markets division is now a central risk. Sustained lower volatility or tighter regulation in key markets would weigh on returns and ROE. ^[61]
Regulatory and governance drag
Additional penalties or constraints arising from short‑selling, product‑governance or other investigations could affect capital allocation, increase costs and deepen investor scepticism on culture. ^[62]
Deal and execution risk
Overpaying for Qube, mis‑timing infrastructure cycles or failing to recycle capital at attractive valuations could erode returns and close the gap between Macquarie and more traditional banks. ^[63]
Valuation sensitivity
With P/E and P/B ratios already above many global peers, any disappointment in earnings‑growth expectations could compress multiples, especially if the broader market de‑rates financials. ^[64]

Macquarie Group stock: what the latest news means now

As of 2 December 2025, Macquarie Group sits at a crossroads:

The share price has corrected from earlier highs and now bakes in slower profit growth, a weaker commodities cycle and ongoing regulatory noise. ^[65]
The group is simultaneously executing some of its largest strategic moves in years – the Qube bid, the Nomura asset‑management sale and the Aligned exit – while expanding its role in digital infrastructure and renewable energy. ^[66]
Consensus forecasts still point to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth, high‑single‑digit earnings growth and double‑digit ROE, with analyst price targets clustering in the A$220–230 range, modestly above today’s price. ^[67]

For investors, the current set‑up is finely balanced: Macquarie remains a high‑quality, globally diversified financial group with strong positions in alternative assets and infrastructure, but it is more exposed than ever to cycle‑sensitive earnings, regulatory outcomes and large‑scale corporate bets.

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