Sydney, Jan 30, 2026, 17:28 AEDT — Trading has moved into after-hours.
- Macquarie Group shares ended the day slightly higher, up 0.02% at A$212.18 following a choppy session
- Rising inflation numbers have traders bracing for an RBA rate hike early next week
- Traders kept a close watch on the competitive sale process unfolding at Macquarie AirFinance
Shares of Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) nudged higher by 0.02%, finishing Friday at A$212.18. The stock fluctuated during the session, ranging from A$211.63 to A$215.00. 1
The move was modest, but the setup heading into next week is anything but. Investors are rapidly adjusting their expectations for Australia’s interest rate trajectory, which tends to pressure diversified financial firms like Macquarie on multiple fronts — from funding costs and credit demand to the valuation of its managed assets.
Australia’s trimmed-mean CPI — a core inflation measure that excludes the biggest price swings — climbed 0.9% in the December quarter, beating expectations, Reuters reported. This pushed market odds for a February rate hike higher. Interest-rate swaps, which track bets on monetary policy, now price in a 73% chance of a hike. ANZ and Westpac joined Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank in calling for a 25-basis-point increase. “We view this as a single ‘insurance’ tightening,” said ANZ’s Adam Boyton. EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy added that a 25-basis-point move “will be necessary” to bring inflation back into the Reserve Bank’s target range. 2
Headline inflation has climbed back above that range. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased 3.8% in the year ending December 2025, up from 3.4% in November. 3
The broader market dipped as the weekend approached. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index ended 0.7% lower at 8,869.10 points, according to a Reuters update shared on MarketScreener. 4
On the company front, traders mulled over rumors surrounding Macquarie AirFinance, the aircraft leasing platform half-owned by Macquarie with over 300 owned and committed planes. Aviation Capital Group CEO Tom Baker revealed his firm had dropped out of the bidding, calling the sales process “very competitive,” Reuters reported. 5
Funding remains a key challenge. Savings.com.au noted that Macquarie Bank has increased its highest one-year term deposit rate to 4.50%—a fixed-term savings option where customers commit their money for a specific period. According to Macquarie’s website, this 4.50% rate was still effective as of Jan. 27. 6
Macquarie sees higher rates as a mixed bag. A hawkish RBA might boost certain banking segments, yet it also tightens the screws on borrowers and drives up deposit costs. On top of that, volatile markets risk dampening deal flow and slowing investment.
Still, if rate hikes stick around longer than expected, the downside looks clear: slower growth, risk appetite cooling off, and asset prices dropping. And if the AirFinance sale drags on or underwhelms on price, it could pile on that pressure.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board meets on Feb. 2–3, with the decision and accompanying statement expected on Feb. 3. 7
