Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) just endured one of its most volatile sessions of the year. On Monday, December 8, 2025, the AI‑infrastructure chip maker gapped lower at the open, sold off hard through the day, and slipped a bit further after the closing bell as investors digested a cluster of negative headlines around Amazon, Microsoft and the S&P 500 index.
Here’s a detailed look at what happened to Marvell stock after the bell on December 8, and what matters most before the U.S. market opens on Tuesday, December 9, 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Marvell stock dropped about 7% on Monday, closing near $92 after opening around $90.45 and hitting an intraday low near $88.92 on heavy volume of roughly 40.6 million shares. [1]
- In after‑hours trading, Marvell slipped again to around $91.30, a further decline of roughly 0.7% from the close, according to Investing.com. [2]
- The sell‑off was driven by three intertwined stories: a Benchmark downgrade tied to fears Marvell lost Amazon Web Services’ next‑gen Trainium 3 and 4 AI chips, reports that Microsoft may move custom AI chip work to Broadcom, and a snub from S&P 500 index inclusion, with Carvana, CRH and Comfort Systems USA chosen instead. [3]
- Despite the hit, Marvell’s fundamentals and long‑term AI story remain broadly positive. The company just reported Q3 revenue growth of about 36–37% year over year, guided higher for next quarter, announced a $5 billion buyback, and agreed to acquire photonics startup Celestial AI for $3.25 billion to strengthen its AI data‑center connectivity business. [4]
- Wall Street is sharply divided in the short term. Benchmark cut Marvell to “Hold” and removed its price target, but other brokers remain bullish: Zacks upgraded MRVL to a Strong Buy, J.P. Morgan reiterated an Overweight with a $130 target, and consensus 12‑month targets cluster around $112–$116, implying double‑digit upside from Monday’s close. [5]
How Marvell Stock Traded on December 8, 2025
Monday’s session for Marvell was ugly from the opening print:
- Previous close (Friday, Dec. 5): $98.91
- Monday open: ~$90.45 (a sharp gap down of roughly 8–9%) [6]
- Intraday range: high near $92.79, low about $88.92 [7]
- Close: ~$92.00, a decline of about 7.0% on the day [8]
- Volume: ~40.6 million shares, roughly double the typical daily volume around 19–20 million. [9]
Data from Finviz and StockStory highlight that Marvell’s intraday losses were even more severe at one point: the stock was down as much as about 10% in the morning session before bouncing somewhat into the close. [10]
In the Finviz breakdown of the move, Marvell:
- Fell about 9.2% during the morning after fresh concerns surfaced about losing key custom chip design contracts with major hyperscale cloud providers. [11]
- Was flagged as “extremely volatile,” with 43 separate moves greater than 5% over the last year. [12]
- Is now down roughly 20–21% year‑to‑date and nearly 29% below its 52‑week high around $126, according to StockStory’s metrics cited in the same report. [13]
After-Hours Snapshot
According to real‑time data from Investing.com:
- Last regular‑session price: $91.98–$92.00
- Last after‑hours price Monday: about $91.30, a 0.7% further decline versus the close. [14]
That modest additional drop after the bell suggests no immediate relief rally yet, but also no outright panic beyond the regular session’s heavy volume sell‑off.
Why Marvell Stock Is Suddenly Under Pressure
Three overlapping storylines hit Marvell almost simultaneously on December 8: index disappointment, Amazon worries, and Microsoft uncertainty. Together they struck at the heart of the market’s AI‑infrastructure narrative for the stock.
1. S&P 500 Inclusion Snub
Late Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Carvana, CRH and Comfort Systems USA would be added to the S&P 500 in its December 22 rebalancing — not Marvell, even though MRVL had been widely seen as a leading candidate after turning GAAP‑profitable and surging on its Celestial AI deal. [15]
A Reuters report summarized Monday’s premarket reaction:
- Marvell shares fell about 6.4% to $92.60 in premarket trading.
- The snub stung because MRVL had been one of the largest new S&P‑eligible names by market cap and many investors had positioned for index‑fund buying. [16]
While index eligibility doesn’t change the underlying business, missing out on forced buying from index funds is a genuine near‑term negative for sentiment and liquidity.
2. Amazon’s Trainium 3 & 4 – Did Marvell Lose Key AI Chip Wins?
The biggest blow came from Benchmark analyst Cody Acree, who:
- Downgraded Marvell from “Buy” to “Hold” and removed his price target, telling clients to take profits after the stock’s recent post‑earnings rally. [17]
- Argued he has a “high degree of conviction” that Marvell has lost Amazon Web Services’ next‑generation Trainium 3 and 4 custom AI accelerator designs to Taiwanese chip design house Alchip, according to summaries from Barron’s and Finviz. [18]
- Suggested that investors misread Marvell’s upbeat guidance, claiming the company’s optimism is more about ongoing Trainium 2 volumes and smaller initiatives (like Amazon’s Kuiper satellite project) than fresh design wins for Trainium 3 or 4. [19]
A MarketWatch/Dow Jones note went further, highlighting two competitive threats:
- Amazon is reportedly leaning more heavily on Synopsys for some high‑speed SerDes IP, potentially reducing Marvell’s share in that part of Amazon’s chip stack.
- The combination of lost next‑gen Trainium design work and less SerDes content could significantly dent the long‑term revenue stream investors had pencilled in for Marvell’s hyperscaler custom silicon franchise. [20]
Crucially, Marvell has not publicly confirmed any loss of Amazon programs, and the company has so far declined to comment on these specific reports. That uncertainty is exactly what markets hate.
3. Microsoft-Broadcom Talks Threaten Another Hyperscaler Relationship
At almost the same time, The Information reported that Microsoft is in talks with Broadcom about future custom AI chips, a role Wall Street had largely associated with Marvell in recent years. [21]
Multiple outlets picked up and expanded on this story:
- Investors.com noted that Marvell stock fell roughly 7% while Broadcom rose nearly 3%, as traders repriced the perceived balance of power in hyperscaler ASICs. [22]
- The Finviz analysis framed the move as investors reacting to fears that both Amazon and Microsoft could diversify away from Marvell in custom XPU designs, a core pillar of the AI‑driven growth story. [23]
However, the picture is not entirely one‑sided. According to Investors.com and related analyst commentary:
- J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur maintained an “Overweight” rating with a $130 price target, arguing Marvell’s ASIC engagements with both Amazon and Microsoft remain fundamentally intact and that the market may be overreacting to speculative reports. [24]
- Mizuho Securities suggested Microsoft may be diversifying suppliers rather than fully replacing Marvell, and that ongoing speculation could weigh on the stock into 2026 even if the underlying business is less impaired than feared. [25]
A Morningstar/MarketWatch note similarly described the sell‑off as driven by “two competitive concerns” — Amazon and Microsoft — rather than any fresh disclosure in Marvell’s own fundamentals. [26]
The Fundamental Picture: Still Strong, But With a New Question Mark
Lost in Monday’s panic is the fact that Marvell’s recent fundamental news has been overwhelmingly positive.
Q3 Results and Guidance
At the start of December, Marvell:
- Reported Q3 revenue of about $2.07 billion, up roughly 36–37% year over year, slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations. [27]
- Delivered adjusted EPS of $0.76 vs. a consensus $0.74, continuing a trend of modest beats. [28]
- Guided for Q4 EPS of about $0.74–$0.84 and revenue around $2.2 billion, both ahead of prior analyst forecasts, with management pointing to strong AI data‑center demand. [29]
These results are why the stock had just rallied into the high‑$90s and briefly above $100 before Monday’s plunge.
Celestial AI Acquisition: The Bull Case Shifts Toward Optics
On December 2, Marvell announced a definitive agreement to acquire Celestial AI, a photonics startup, in a deal valued at about $3.25 billion, plus potential earn‑outs that could take the total above $5 billion. [30]
Key points from Marvell’s press release and follow‑up coverage:
- Celestial AI’s Photonic Fabric™ technology provides ultra‑high‑bandwidth optical interconnects for AI data centers, enabling faster, more energy‑efficient links between compute and memory. [31]
- Marvell expects Celestial AI to be co‑packaged with custom XPUs and switching silicon, potentially enabling the first large‑scale commercial deployment of optical scale‑up connectivity. [32]
- A Reuters report noted that Marvell believes Celestial AI could help address a $10 billion market and generate up to $1 billion in annualized revenue by fiscal 2029, with Amazon even receiving a warrant to buy Marvell shares tied to photonic product purchases through 2030. [33]
Seeking Alpha and other analysts have argued that the long‑term bull case in Marvell increasingly revolves around optical connectivity, co‑packaged optics and data‑center networking — not just custom ASICs. One analysis bluntly stated that “the bull case revolves around optics, not ASICs,” emphasizing that Celestial AI and Marvell’s optical portfolio may ultimately matter more than the exact outcome of the Trainium 3/4 contracts. [34]
Buyback, Dividend and Valuation
MarketBeat’s breakdown of Monday’s move also highlights several supportive factors: [35]
- Marvell’s board recently authorized a $5 billion share‑repurchase plan, enough to buy back up to roughly 7–8% of the float, signalling management believes the stock is undervalued.
- The company pays a modest dividend of $0.06 per quarter (about a 0.3% yield at recent prices), with a very low payout ratio around 8–9%.
- On Monday’s close near $92, Marvell traded at about 32x trailing earnings with a PEG ratio just under 1, which many growth investors consider reasonable given projected AI‑driven growth.
There has been some small insider selling: EVP Mark Casper recently sold about 1,253 shares at $101 each (roughly $126,553) following the early‑December rally, though he still holds over 26,000 shares when including indirect ownership. [36] In dollar terms, that’s a modest trim rather than an outright exit.
What Wall Street Is Saying Now: Split Between Fear and Opportunity
The net result is a highly polarized Wall Street tape.
The Bears (or at Least the Skeptics)
- Benchmark (Cody Acree): Downgraded MRVL to Hold, removed its price target, and argues that the market has misinterpreted Marvell’s commentary on Amazon, underestimating the risk from losing Trainium 3/4 and from Amazon’s shift toward Synopsys in some design blocks. [37]
- A recent Seeking Alpha note on “XPU wars” cut Marvell from Strong Buy to Buy, citing a slower‑than‑hoped inflection in its custom accelerator business and intensifying competition from Broadcom and other ASIC players. [38]
These views basically say: the AI custom‑chip story is less clean than investors believed three weeks ago.
The Bulls (Or “Buy the Dip” Camp)
On the other side:
- Zacks upgraded Marvell to a Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on December 8, highlighting improving earnings estimate revisions, AI momentum, and a more attractive valuation after the pullback. [39]
- J.P. Morgan reiterated Overweight with a $130 price target, explicitly disagreeing with the idea that Amazon and Microsoft have structurally pulled away from Marvell’s ASIC engagements. [40]
- According to MarketBeat, the broader analyst community still skews positive: roughly 3 analysts rate MRVL “Strong Buy,” about 20 “Buy,” and around 15 “Hold,” yielding an overall “Moderate Buy” rating with a consensus target around $111.56. [41]
- Investing.com’s survey of 31 analysts pegs the average 12‑month price target near $116, with some highs up to $156 and no outright Sell ratings, implying roughly 20–25% upside from Monday’s close. [42]
Several recent deep‑dive pieces — including “Marvell: Cheap Today, Critical to Tomorrow’s AI Data Centers” and bullish post‑earnings analyses — argue that optical interconnects, switching, and data‑center networking give Marvell a durable AI infrastructure franchise, even if the ASIC piece proves lumpier than hoped. [43]
What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 9, 2025
Heading into Tuesday’s U.S. open, here are the key issues for Marvell investors and traders to monitor.
1. Price Action vs. Monday’s Lows
As of the latest after‑hours quote, MRVL sits just below Monday’s close, around $91–$92, still well above the intraday low near $88.92 but far below last week’s high $90s to low $100s. [44]
From a purely price‑action perspective:
- $88–$90 now looks like the first important near‑term support zone, corresponding to Monday’s low and prior consolidation levels from late November. [45]
- The $98–$100 area — last week’s breakout level — is likely to act as near‑term resistance if the stock attempts a rebound. [46]
How MRVL trades in Tuesday’s premarket (liquidity may be thin) and into the first hour after the bell will give clues about whether dip‑buyers are willing to step in or whether momentum sellers still dominate.
2. Any Response from Marvell, Amazon or Microsoft
As of Monday evening, Marvell had not issued a new press release or SEC filing to address the specific claims about Amazon’s Trainium 3/4 and Microsoft’s chip plans. The company’s most recent official communications are:
- December 2 press releases on Q3 results and the Celestial AI acquisition. [47]
Investors will be watching closely for:
- Any statement from Marvell clarifying the status of its Amazon and Microsoft relationships.
- Comments from Amazon or Microsoft that may confirm, deny, or nuance the reports about chip design partners.
Even a carefully worded statement could meaningfully move the stock in either direction.
3. Macro Backdrop: Fed Week and Risk Appetite
Monday’s sell‑off in Marvell unfolded against a slightly weaker but still elevated U.S. equity market, with:
- The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq down around 0.4–0.5% ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate cut, according to Investopedia’s market wrap. [48]
- Bond yields drifting higher and volatility ticking up as traders position for the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2025. [49]
Ameriprise’s “Before the Bell” report for December 8 notes that:
- U.S. index futures were pointing to a flat open, with investors focused on the Fed’s decision and a mixed batch of economic data including JOLTS and small‑business sentiment. [50]
For high‑multiple AI names like Marvell, any further backup in yields or hawkish nuance from the Fed on Wednesday could keep pressure on valuations — even apart from company‑specific news.
4. AI-Sector and Broadcom Read-Through
Because Monday’s move was so tied to hyperscaler AI chips, Marvell won’t trade in a vacuum:
- Broadcom (AVGO) climbed about 2–3% Monday on the same Microsoft‑chip headlines that hurt Marvell, and its upcoming earnings later this week will be parsed for clues about custom AI ASIC demand. [51]
- Other AI infrastructure names — from Nvidia to smaller optical and networking plays — could move sympathetically, either reinforcing or softening the narrative that AI data‑center growth is being spread among multiple vendors. [52]
If Broadcom and peers continue to gain while Marvell lags, the market may be rotating within the AI theme rather than abandoning it.
How to Frame Marvell Going Into Tuesday (Without Giving You Investment Advice)
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. That said, here’s how many market participants are likely to frame Marvell before Tuesday’s open:
- Short-term traders are focusing on:
- Whether MRVL can hold the $88–$90 zone on any further selling.
- The absence or presence of a company response to the Amazon/Microsoft rumors.
- Flows linked to the S&P 500 rebalance, given the disappointment around Marvell’s exclusion. [53]
- Longer-term investors are weighing:
- The risk that some Amazon and Microsoft custom‑chip programs migrate elsewhere against the potential upside from Celestial AI, optical interconnects, and data‑center networking, where Marvell may have more durable competitive moats. [54]
- Whether a stock down ~20% year‑to‑date, trading at ~32x earnings with a large buyback and strong AI‑driven growth, still fits their risk/reward profile in a volatile Fed‑driven macro environment. [55]
If you’re following MRVL into the December 9 open, the most actionable information in the very short term will likely be:
- Live premarket and opening‑bell price/volume vs. Monday’s lows.
- Any fresh comments from management or major customers.
- The tone of AI‑chip and Fed‑related macro headlines as the week develops.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. finviz.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. finviz.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. investor.marvell.com, 32. investor.marvell.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. seekingalpha.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. seekingalpha.com, 39. www.zacks.com, 40. www.investors.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.investing.com, 43. seekingalpha.com, 44. www.investing.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. stockanalysis.com, 47. www.marvell.com, 48. www.investopedia.com, 49. www.investopedia.com, 50. cdn.ameriprisecontent.com, 51. www.investors.com, 52. www.interactivebrokers.com, 53. www.tradingview.com, 54. www.reuters.com, 55. finviz.com
