McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK) is ending 2025 as one of the standout performers in U.S. healthcare — but as of Wednesday, December 3, its stock is taking a breather.
At the close, McKesson shares finished at $805.37, down 2.93% on the day and roughly 10% below their recent 52‑week high near $895, even after a powerful rally through most of the year. [1]
Behind that pullback is a mix of profit‑taking after record highs, institutional portfolio shuffling, and investors digesting a wave of new guidance, long‑term targets, oncology initiatives and valuation debates.
This article walks through:
- Today’s McKesson stock price and performance
- What’s driving the latest decline
- The earnings story and 2026 guidance
- The company’s oncology and specialty‑drug strategy
- Analyst ratings, price targets and DCF valuations
- Key risks around opioids, regulation and the Med‑Surg spin‑off
Key Takeaways on McKesson Stock (as of December 3, 2025)
- Share price & performance: McKesson closed at $805.37, down almost 3% on Wednesday and about 10% below its 52‑week high around $895. Over the past year the stock is still up more than 30%, and it’s gained about 42% year‑to‑date, handily beating broad U.S. indexes. [2]
- Short‑term pressure, long‑term strength: The latest drop follows a sharp run toward record highs. Intraday data earlier in the session showed MCK around $829.70, off 3.17% on heavy volume, but still up more than 50% year‑to‑date, highlighting volatility rather than a broken story. [3]
- Earnings & guidance: McKesson has raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance three times, now targeting $38.35–$38.85 per share after back‑to‑back earnings beats in the first two quarters. [4]
- Strategy: Management is spinning off the Medical‑Surgical Solutions segment into a standalone “NewCo” and reshaping the core business around oncology, specialty drugs and tech‑enabled services, backed by an increased long‑term EPS growth target of 13–16% per year. [5]
- Wall Street view: Across major data providers, analysts lean clearly bullish: most rate MCK a Buy or Strong Buy, with average/median 12‑month price targets from roughly $876 to $957, implying high single‑ to mid‑teens upside versus the current price. [6]
- Valuation debates: Discounted cash‑flow models from platforms like Simply Wall St, AlphaSpread and others cluster around $1,270–$1,400 per share, suggesting ~35–40% upside if their growth assumptions prove right — though those models are opinionated and sensitive to inputs. [7]
- Risks: McKesson still faces long‑running opioid settlement obligations, regulatory and reimbursement risk, spin‑off execution challenges, and the possibility of sharper swings given that roughly 85% of its float is held by institutions. [8]
McKesson Stock Price Today: Pullback After a Huge Run
At Wednesday’s close, MCK traded at $805.37, down $24.33 (-2.93%) on the day. That marks about five straight sessions of declines and leaves the stock 10.07% below its 52‑week high near $895.58. [9]
Yet zooming out, the share price performance is still striking:
- Year‑to‑date: +42.24%
- 1 year: +30.33%
- 3 months: +16.58%
- 5 years: +349.53% [10]
The 52‑week range now sits around $558–$896, so even after the pullback, MCK remains closer to the top of its year‑long band than the bottom. [11]
Market commentators like Barchart recently highlighted that McKesson has outperformed the S&P 500 over most time frames in 2025, underscoring its role as a resilient healthcare compounder — albeit one that can still correct sharply after strong rallies. [12]
Why Is McKesson (MCK) Stock Down Today?
So what’s behind today’s nearly 3% slide?
1. Volatility after oncology news
A Smartkarma “Market Movers” note on December 3 flagged McKesson’s intraday drop to $829.70 (-3.17%) on volume of 1.33 million shares, but also pointed out that the stock remained up over 50% year‑to‑date at that point. [13]
The same piece tied some of the volatility to the company’s new “Advancing Community Oncology Report,” which McKesson describes as charting “a new era of innovation for biopharma and community care” in the U.S. community oncology landscape. [14]
In other words, this isn’t negative news — it’s investors re‑pricing expectations around McKesson’s oncology ambitions after an already big move.
2. Profit‑taking near record highs
Just a few days ago, McKesson was trading near record levels around $880–$890, only a few dollars below its peak around $895.58, with a market cap in the $108–109 billion range and a trailing P/E near the mid‑30s and dividend yield of roughly 0.4%. TS2 Tech+1
After that kind of run, it’s unsurprising to see:
- Short‑term traders locking in profits, and
- Valuation‑sensitive investors trimming positions as multiples expand.
MarketWatch’s December 3 recap framed McKesson as underperforming the broader market on the day — a classic sign of risk‑off flows hitting big prior winners first. [15]
3. Mixed institutional positioning
On the institutional side, the picture is nuanced rather than outright bearish.
A MarketBeat filing recap published December 3 noted that Shelton Capital Management cut its McKesson stake by 34.3%, selling 1,321 shares and ending the quarter with 2,531 shares valued at about $1.86 million. [16]
However, the same report and other recent analyses show:
- Numerous other asset managers adding modestly to positions
- Total institutional ownership around 85% of the float
- Only ~0.08% of shares held by insiders, with a small recent sale (329 shares) by Chief Accounting Officer Napoleon B. Rutledge Jr. at an average price near $861.63. [17]
The upshot: today’s drop looks more like positioning and digestion after a huge year than a sudden collapse in the underlying business.
Earnings Momentum: FY25 Strength and Fiscal 2026 Upgrades
McKesson’s fundamental story over the last 18 months has been one of steady beat‑and‑raise execution.
FY25: Double‑digit growth and initial FY26 outlook
In fiscal 2025 (year ended March 31, 2025), McKesson posted:
- Mid‑teens revenue growth (about 16% year‑on‑year), and
- Around 20% growth in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), according to the company’s Q4 results and investor presentation. [18]
Management paired those numbers with an initial fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth outlook of 11–14%, reinforcing the idea that mid‑teens earnings growth was sustainable even after a strong multi‑year run. [19]
Q1 FY26: Specialty‑drug tailwinds and first guidance raise
On August 6, 2025, McKesson reported fiscal 2026 first‑quarter results:
- Revenue: about $97.83 billion, beating consensus estimates near $96.08 billion
- Adjusted EPS:$8.26, topping expectations of around $8.15 [20]
The company attributed the strength largely to:
- Robust demand for high‑margin specialty drugs, including oncology and autoimmune therapies
- Rising prescription volumes from large U.S. retail pharmacy clients
- Contributions from acquisitions in specialty distribution [21]
On the back of that beat, McKesson raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $37.10–$37.90, up from $36.90–$37.70. [22]
Investor Day: Long‑term targets ratcheted higher
At its 2025 Investor Day on September 23, McKesson:
- Raised and narrowed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance again, to $38.05–$38.55, and
- Increased its long‑term adjusted EPS growth target to 13–16% per year, up from 12–14%. [23]
The company also introduced new long‑term segment operating profit growth targets for its redefined businesses:
- North American Pharmaceutical: 5–8%
- Oncology & Multispecialty: 13–16%
- Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS): 10–13% [24]
These targets reflect management’s confidence that oncology, specialty distribution and tech‑enabled services can drive faster growth than the legacy broad distribution platform.
Q2 FY26: Another EPS beat and a third guidance hike
On November 5, 2025, McKesson delivered fiscal 2026 second‑quarter results:
- Revenue: roughly $103.1–$103.2 billion, up around 10% year‑on‑year but slightly below the Street’s top‑line estimate near $104.1 billion
- Adjusted EPS:$9.86, far ahead of consensus around $9.02 [25]
Strong performance in the U.S. Pharmaceutical segment and continued expansion in oncology and other specialty categories drove the beat. [26]
McKesson responded by raising FY26 EPS guidance for a third time, to $38.35–$38.85, implying high‑teens growth off the FY25 base. [27]
Strategy Shift: Oncology, Specialty Drugs and the Med‑Surg Spin‑Off
McKesson is not just growing — it is actively reshaping its portfolio.
Spinning off Medical‑Surgical Solutions (“NewCo”)
In May 2025, McKesson announced plans to separate its Medical‑Surgical Solutions segment into an independent, publicly traded company often referred to as “NewCo.” [28]
Key points from company disclosures and third‑party analyses:
- Med‑Surg is roughly an $11.4 billion revenue business focused on medical supplies and services for outpatient and alternate‑site care. [29]
- Management believes a separation will unlock value and sharpen strategic focus for both companies. McKesson will lean into its pharmaceutical distribution, oncology, biopharma services and technology, while NewCo focuses on medical‑surgical supplies and solutions. [30]
Analysts at outlets like Forbes and Finimize have framed the spin‑off as part of a portfolio‑optimization strategy that could improve McKesson’s overall margin profile, albeit with execution risk around timing, deal structure and post‑split performance. [31]
Advancing community oncology
The company’s growing emphasis on oncology is visible on several fronts:
- McKesson has expanded its oncology footprint through The US Oncology Network and acquisitions such as a controlling interest in Florida Cancer Specialists’ Core Ventures, enhancing its services for large independent oncology groups. [32]
- In late 2025, McKesson released its “Advancing Community Oncology Report,” described in company and third‑party summaries as charting key trends in U.S. community oncology and new partnership models for biopharma and independent practices. [33]
Taken together with the Oncology & Multispecialty segment’s long‑term 13–16% operating profit growth target, the report underscores how central this ecosystem is to McKesson’s future. [34]
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Broadly Bullish
Despite short‑term volatility, Wall Street remains broadly constructive on McKesson.
Across several major data providers:
- MarketBeat:
- 17 analysts over the past 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: $887.69 (about 10% above the recent ~$805 price)
- Target range: $770–$1,000 [35]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 12 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target: $876.25, implying roughly 8.8% upside
- Range: $770–$980 [36]
- TickerNerd:
- Compiles views from 26 analysts
- Overall stance: “Strong Buy” (8.6/10)
- Median price target: $957.50 (about 15%+ upside versus the ~$830 trading level at the time of that analysis) [37]
- Investing.com consensus:
- 14 analysts
- Rating: “Buy” (12 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell)
- Average target: $934.79, implying about 16% upside from the current $805.37 share price [38]
- Zacks Investment Research:
- Recent commentary notes an Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) of 1.38 on a 1–5 scale (1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Strong Sell), which sits between “Strong Buy” and “Buy” across 16 covering brokers. [39]
- Zacks repeatedly features McKesson as a top Value, Growth and Momentum stock, highlighting strong Style Scores and a VGM score of A, supported by earnings estimate revisions and consistent positive surprises. [40]
No single target is gospel, but the pattern is clear: most analysts see more upside than downside from today’s price, even after a big multi‑year run.
Valuation: Is McKesson Undervalued or Fully Priced?
Analyst price targets tell one story (modest upside); cash‑flow‑based valuation models tell another (potential deep undervaluation).
Street targets: Moderately above current levels
As summarised above, sell‑side price targets generally cluster between the high $800s and mid‑$900s, implying a high single‑ to mid‑teens percentage upside versus the current $805–$810 range. [41]
That aligns with the idea that:
- The market already prices McKesson as a high‑quality compounder, but
- Earnings upgrades and the spin‑off could still support some further re‑rating.
DCF and “fair value” models: 30–40% upside (with caveats)
Several independent platforms argue that McKesson’s intrinsic value is well above the current price:
- Simply Wall St:
- AlphaSpread:
- Base‑case intrinsic value around $1,285.58 per share, versus a market price near $806, implying about 37% upside. [44]
- Other DCF analyses (Sahm Capital, Webull, Simply Wall St‑syndicated articles):
- Put McKesson’s fair value in the $1,366–$1,399 range, implying ~40%+ upside vs trading levels at the time of those notes. [45]
These models generally assume that McKesson:
- Maintains double‑digit earnings growth in line with its 13–16% long‑term EPS target
- Continues to grow free cash flow via scale, specialty mix shift and capital discipline
- Executes the Med‑Surg spin‑off cleanly and avoids significant new legal or regulatory shocks [46]
DCF models are only as good as their assumptions, and they do not guarantee future returns — but they help explain why many fundamental investors still see McKesson as undervalued despite the high headline share price.
Growth Drivers Supporting the Bull Case
Several structural themes underpin the bullish view on McKesson:
- Demographics and drug volume growth
Barron’s and others highlight McKesson’s role as the largest U.S. drug distributor, benefiting from an aging population, rising prevalence of chronic diseases and growing demand for medicines like GLP‑1 weight‑loss and diabetes drugs. [47] - Shift toward specialty and oncology drugs
High‑margin specialty drugs — particularly oncology therapies — are growing faster than the overall market. McKesson’s Oncology & Multispecialty platform and its expansive distribution network position it to capture that growth while leveraging scale economies. [48] - Tech‑enabled services and data
Through segments like Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) and initiatives such as InspiroGene (a cell and gene therapy commercialization platform launched in 2024), McKesson aims to move further into analytics, patient support and specialty program management, areas with attractive margins and long contracts. [49] - Capital returns and balance sheet strength
- Long‑term targets signal confidence
Raising the long‑term EPS growth target to 13–16% and introducing ambitious segment growth targets sends a clear message: management expects double‑digit compounding to continue, not fade. [52]
Key Risks: Opioid Settlements, Regulation and Spin‑Off Execution
No matter how compelling the growth story, McKesson is not risk‑free. Some of the main issues investors watch:
1. Opioid litigation and settlement obligations
McKesson is one of three major distributors — alongside Cardinal Health and Cencora — that entered into a national opioid settlement with U.S. states and local governments.
According to a Congressional Research Service overview and settlement documentation:
- The three distributors together agreed to pay up to $21 billion over 18 years, with payments starting in 2022, and
- They face extensive injunctive obligations, including creating a centralized clearinghouse to monitor opioid orders, implementing data‑driven thresholds for suspicious orders, and tightening compliance around sales incentives. [53]
Barron’s notes that while McKesson has already absorbed large opioid‑related charges (with one cited settlement figure of around $7.4 billion tied to opioid litigation), the company still lists legal and regulatory exposure as a key ongoing risk in its filings and Investor Day materials. [54]
2. Healthcare pricing and regulatory pressure
McKesson’s Investor Day risk section and SEC‑filed disclosures cite a long list of potential headwinds: [55]
- Changes in drug pricing and reimbursement models
- Shifts in Medicare/Medicaid policies and commercial payor behavior
- Generic price deflation or supply disruptions
- Evolving healthcare laws and regulations in the U.S. and abroad
While distributors typically operate on thin margins and pass much of the price risk upstream or downstream, extreme policy changes could still impact volume, spread economics or working capital dynamics.
3. Spin‑off and M&A execution risk
The planned Med‑Surg spin‑off is strategically appealing but operationally complex. Potential pitfalls include: [56]
- Delays or changes in the transaction structure
- Integration challenges for any bolt‑on deals meant to bolster the core segments
- The risk that NewCo or RemainCo trade at lower‑than‑expected valuations post‑split
McKesson’s own risk disclosures flag acquisition, divestiture and separation execution as a material uncertainty. [57]
4. Concentrated institutional ownership and sentiment swings
With ~85% of the float held by institutional investors, McKesson is heavily owned by funds and asset managers. [58]
That cuts both ways:
- On the plus side, it signals strong professional conviction in the story.
- On the downside, it means that broad de‑risking in healthcare or large‑cap growth could hit MCK hard if many institutions decide to trim at once.
What Today’s Setup May Mean for Investors
Putting everything together:
- Fundamentals: McKesson is delivering double‑digit revenue growth, large EPS beats, and multiple guidance raises, all while re‑focusing the business on oncology, specialty drugs and tech‑enabled services. [59]
- Valuation: Consensus Street targets suggest moderate further upside from current levels, while DCF‑style models see considerably more potential if management hits its 13–16% EPS growth target and spin‑off plans proceed smoothly. [60]
- Risks: Opioid legacy issues, healthcare policy changes, spin‑off execution and heavy institutional positioning all remain real sources of downside risk, especially given the stock’s premium multiple and modest dividend yield. [61]
For long‑term, fundamentals‑focused investors, McKesson looks like a high‑quality healthcare infrastructure play tied to secular growth in specialty medicine, with management signaling confidence via guidance raises and upgraded long‑term targets.
For shorter‑term traders, the situation is more delicate: after a huge 2025 rally, near‑term pullbacks like today’s can easily deepen if sentiment toward high‑multiple healthcare names cools or if there’s any misstep on guidance, regulation or the spin‑off timeline.
Important: This article is for information and general news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. McKesson stock may or may not be appropriate for your individual circumstances. Before making any investment decision, consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, investment objectives, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. www.wallstrank.com, 2. www.wallstrank.com, 3. www.smartkarma.com, 4. www.mckesson.com, 5. www.mckesson.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. simplywall.st, 8. www.congress.gov, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.wallstrank.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. www.smartkarma.com, 14. www.wallstrank.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. s24.q4cdn.com, 19. s24.q4cdn.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.mckesson.com, 24. www.mckesson.com, 25. www.mckesson.com, 26. www.mckesson.com, 27. www.mckesson.com, 28. www.mckesson.com, 29. www.stockspinoffs.com, 30. www.mckesson.com, 31. www.forbes.com, 32. www.mckesson.com, 33. www.wallstrank.com, 34. www.mckesson.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. tickernerd.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. finance.yahoo.com, 40. www.nasdaq.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. simplywall.st, 43. simplywall.st, 44. www.alphaspread.com, 45. www.sahmcapital.com, 46. www.mckesson.com, 47. www.barrons.com, 48. www.mckesson.com, 49. www.mckesson.com, 50. www.mckesson.com, 51. www.mckesson.com, 52. www.mckesson.com, 53. www.congress.gov, 54. www.barrons.com, 55. www.mckesson.com, 56. www.mckesson.com, 57. www.mckesson.com, 58. www.marketbeat.com, 59. www.mckesson.com, 60. www.marketbeat.com, 61. www.congress.gov
