Mercedes‑Benz Group AG Stock on 2 December 2025: Buyback, AI Push and 7%+ Dividend Put MBG in the Spotlight

Stuttgart / Frankfurt – 2 December 2025

Mercedes‑Benz Group AG (XETR: MBG, MBG.DE) is back on investors’ radar as 2025 draws to a close. A fresh €2 billion share buyback, a dividend yield above 7% and a growing push into AI‑driven manufacturing are all competing with weaker earnings, tougher conditions in China and a demanding EV transition.

Below is a structured look at Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock as of 2 December 2025, based on the latest company reports, analyst forecasts and market news.

1. Mercedes‑Benz share price today

In early Tuesday trading, Mercedes‑Benz shares slipped at the open to about €58.9 on Xetra, down roughly 0.3%, putting the stock among the softer DAX names in the first hour of trade. ^[1]

By late morning, quotes around €59.1 showed the stock fractionally higher on the day, with bid‑ask spreads just above €59.2. ^[2]

Across recent sessions, MBG has been trading just below its late‑November close of €59.07 and within a 52‑week range of roughly €45–63 per share. ^[3] At current levels, Mercedes‑Benz carries a market capitalisation of around €56 billion, making it a top‑10 weight in the DAX 40. ^[4]

2. Fundamentals: 2025 is a down year, but guidance holds

Q3 2025 – profit slump, still within guidance

Mercedes‑Benz’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025, published 29 October) confirmed what investors already suspected: 2025 is shaping up as a weaker year, but not a crisis.

Key group figures for Q3 2025 compared with a year earlier: ^[5]

Revenue: €32.1 bn (‑7% YoY)
EBIT: €750 m (‑70%)
Adjusted EBIT: €2.10 bn (‑17%)
Net profit: €1.19 bn (‑31%)
Earnings per share: €1.22 (vs €1.81)
Free cash flow of the industrial business: €1.37 bn (‑43%)
Net industrial liquidity: €32.3 bn (+3% vs end‑2024)

The sharp drop in reported EBIT is largely explained by €1.35 bn in adjustments, mainly provisions for workforce and optimisation programmes in Germany and abroad. ^[6]

Despite the hit, management stressed that all three divisions – Cars, Vans and Mobility – delivered margins in line with full‑year guidance, and reiterated 2025 targets.

Segment trends

Mercedes‑Benz Cars generated Q3 revenue of €23.7 bn, down 7.3%, with unit sales falling 12.3% to about 441,000 vehicles amid weaker China demand, tariffs and deliberate stock discipline in the US. Adjusted EBIT margin came in at 4.8%. ^[7]
Mercedes‑Benz Vans maintained double‑digit profitability with an adjusted EBIT margin of 10.2%, selling around 83,800 units; electric vans almost doubled to 8,579 units, lifting EV share to 10% globally and 14% in Europe. ^[8]
Mercedes‑Benz Mobility posted an adjusted return on equity of 9.6%, helped by efficiency gains, albeit with higher credit‑risk costs in a softer macro environment. ^[9]

Q2 2025 – revenue slide and tariff pressure

The Q3 report followed an already difficult Q2 2025, where revenue fell 10% to €33.2 bn, adjusted EBIT dropped 68% to €1.3 bn and EPS plunged to €0.95 from €2.95 a year earlier. ^[10] Tariffs, pricing pressure and lower volumes in key regions were the main culprits, even as free cash flow rose 14% to €1.9 bn.

Electric vehicles remain a relative bright spot: in Q2, EVs represented about 21% of total volume, up from 18% a year earlier, with EV van sales up 32%. ^[11]

2025 outlook – “significantly below” 2024 on revenue and EBIT

On 29 October the company confirmed its 2025 outlook, originally laid out at February’s capital markets day and updated on the investor “Outlook 2025” page: ^[12]

Group revenue: expected “significantly below” 2024’s €145.6 bn
Group EBIT and free cash flow (industrial business): also significantly below 2024 (EBIT €13.6 bn; FCF €9.2 bn)
Unit sales: Cars and Vans both “significantly below” prior‑year levels
Adjusted ROS 2025:
- Cars: 4–6% (vs 8.1% in 2024)
- Vans: 8–10% (vs 14.6%)
- Mobility ROE: 8–9%

In short, Mercedes‑Benz is managing the downturn with cost cuts and a tighter focus on high‑margin vehicles, but 2025 is clearly a reset year after very strong pandemic‑era profits.

3. Capital returns: 7%+ dividend and a fresh €2 billion buyback

High dividend yield

For the 2024 financial year, shareholders received a €4.30 per share dividend, paid in May 2025. ^[13]

At a share price near €59, that translates into a trailing yield of roughly 7–7.5%, one of the highest among German blue chips and above both the German market and global auto‑sector averages. ^[14] Dividend screens from platforms such as Simply Wall St and Divvydiary note that payouts are covered by earnings and cash flow, though they have been volatile over the past decade. ^[15]

New share buyback 2025–2026

On 3 November 2025, Mercedes‑Benz launched a new share buyback programme, approved by the Supervisory Board and authorised by shareholders. Key terms: ^[16]

Duration: 3 November 2025 – 3 November 2026
Volume: up to 96 million shares
Total consideration: up to €2 billion (excluding fees)

Regulatory filings show that between 3 and 28 November, the company repurchased 2,909,106 shares at an average price of about €57.96, for a total of roughly €168.6 million – just under 3% of the authorised amount. ^[17] The shares are intended to be cancelled over time, supporting EPS and returning surplus cash to investors.

This new programme builds on a broader capital‑allocation framework presented at the “Mastering Transformation” capital markets day, where management signalled its willingness to deploy up to €5 billion for buybacks over up to 24 months, alongside a generous dividend. ^[18]

4. Strategy: premium focus, AI and a major product launch wave

“Mastering Transformation” and top‑end vehicles

Mercedes‑Benz’s mid‑term strategy, branded “Mastering Transformation”, centres on remaining a premium and “Top‑End” player while moving to EVs and software‑defined vehicles. At a February 2025 capital markets event, the company highlighted: ^[19]

A double‑digit adjusted ROS target for Mercedes‑Benz Cars over the cycle
Plans to expand Top‑End Vehicle (TEV) offerings (S‑Class, GLS, G‑Class, AMG, Maybach)
A pipeline of dozens of new or refreshed models through 2027, starting with the new CLA family, an all‑electric GLC, updated S‑Class and various AMG EV and hybrid launches
A 10% production‑cost reduction goal by 2027

In Q3 2025, Top‑End Vehicles accounted for about 15% of global sales, with strong growth in China despite an overall market slowdown. ^[20]

AI and process intelligence: from factories to the workforce

AI is becoming a visible pillar of the Mercedes‑Benz investment case:

A Reuters brief on 1 December reported that Mercedes‑Benz has doubled the daily AI usage rate among employees this year and aims for 50% of its workforce to use AI tools by end‑2025, with the goal of improving the driving experience and vehicle safety. ^[21]
In November, Mercedes‑Benz and Celonis announced that the Celonis Process Intelligence Platform is now deployed across 30+ global production plants, connecting data from major production and logistics systems, forecasting delivery times with AI copilots and detecting anomalies before they affect quality. ^[22]
The group has also taken a stake in US robotics firm Apptronik and is testing humanoid robots for repetitive and hazardous tasks in factories, reflecting a broader automation push. ^[23]

Taken together, this suggests Mercedes‑Benz is using AI not only for in‑car assistants, but also to increase productivity and flexibility in manufacturing and logistics – a key lever as margins come under pressure.

Leadership reshuffle to support tech and efficiency

Effective 1 December 2025, the Board of Management has been reshaped to reflect this focus: ^[24]

Jörg Burzer moves from Production, Quality & Supply Chain to become Chief Technology Officer (CTO), heading Development & Procurement.
Michael Schiebe, formerly CEO of Mercedes‑AMG and head of the Top‑End Vehicle group, joins the Board as head of Production, Quality & Supply Chain Management.

The reshuffle connects leadership experience in performance/luxury vehicles and digital manufacturing directly with technology and operations – a signal that Mercedes‑Benz wants its transformation agenda to be driven from the top.

5. Macro headwinds: China, tariffs and Europe’s transition

China: “not naive” about tougher years ahead

China remains Mercedes‑Benz’s single most important market but also one of its biggest headaches. In a November interview, CEO Ola Källenius told Reuters the company is “not naive” in China, where it expects “a tough couple of years” and intense competition from local EV brands while fighting to maintain market share. ^[25]

This commentary echoes earlier analyst notes pointing to repeated quarterly revenue declines and fierce EV price competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers.

Trade and tariffs

The 2025 results show the ongoing impact of trade tensions:

Q2 and Q3 both cited higher tariff‑related costs as a major drag on profitability. ^[26]
A Reuters analysis of Mercedes‑Benz’s updated guidance noted that the company revised its 2025 car‑business margin forecast to 4–6%, down from 6–8%, largely due to tariff uncertainties, while flagging that full‑year revenue in both Cars and Vans will be significantly below 2024 levels. ^[27]

European policy and industry jobs

The broader European auto sector is also in flux:

EU policymakers are debating stricter rules for corporate car fleets, which could effectively force a rapid switch to zero‑emission vehicles for company cars by 2030 – a potentially powerful driver of EV demand, but one that requires heavy upfront investment. ^[28]
Germany’s auto industry employment has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, with about 48,700 fewer staff year‑on‑year as of September, highlighting the social and political sensitivities around restructuring. ^[29]

These macro factors help explain why Mercedes‑Benz is provisioning heavily for workforce adjustments while simultaneously pushing digitalisation and automation.

6. Valuation: cheap quality or a value trap?

Classic value metrics look attractive

On traditional valuation metrics, Mercedes‑Benz Group AG looks inexpensive relative to both the wider market and the global auto sector:

Trailing P/E: roughly 8.5–9.0x, according to Yahoo Finance, Wisesheets and CompaniesMarketCap. ^[30]
Forward P/E: around 8.8–9.4x, based on consensus earnings estimates. ^[31]
Price‑to‑sales: ~0.4x; price‑to‑book: ~0.6x; price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow: roughly 3.4x. ^[32]

Simply Wall St’s valuation model describes MBG as “good value”, noting a current P/E around 9.1x versus an estimated “fair” P/E of 12.9x and an industry average near 18x – implying roughly 20% undervaluation if earnings stabilise. ^[33]

Using 2024 free cash flow of €9.2 bn and a market cap in the mid‑€50 billions, the stock trades on a double‑digit trailing free‑cash‑flow yield, though 2025 cash generation is guided to be significantly lower. ^[34]

Income story remains compelling

With a forward dividend yield around 7–7.5%, Mercedes‑Benz sits well above the top quartile of dividend payers in the German market (around 4.5%) and above the global auto average (around 5.9%). ^[35] Analyst forecasts suggest the dividend may moderate over time, but current consensus still points to a payout above 6% in coming years, contingent on earnings. ^[36]

For investors comfortable with cyclicality, that combination of high yield + buyback + low multiples is the core of the bull case.

7. What analysts and models expect

Street price targets

Across major data providers, 12‑month price targets cluster in a relatively tight band:

Investing.com: average target about €61.9, high €79, low ~€41, with an overall “Buy” consensus (mix of Buy/Hold/Sell). ^[37]
TradingView: similar picture, with a mean target of €61.82, high €79, low €45. ^[38]
AlphaSpread: average analyst target around €60.7, implying low‑single‑digit capital upside from current levels before dividends. TechStock²+1

Given a spot price near €59, these targets imply roughly 3–8% price upside over 12 months. When the 7%+ dividend is added, the market is effectively pricing in a high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total return – assuming forecasts are met and the dividend is maintained.

Quant and technical models

Short‑term trading models are more muted:

StockInvest.us’ technical model sees MBG.DE as a neutral/hold, with a predicted short‑term move only slightly above current levels (around €60) and choppy trading within the recent range. ^[39]

In other words, most of the near‑term story sits in income and gradual re‑rating, not in an aggressive momentum trade.

8. Key risks investors are watching

Despite the appealing valuations, Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock carries several material risks:

Prolonged revenue and margin pressure
Revenue has declined for multiple quarters in a row, and 2025 guidance explicitly calls for lower sales and EBIT. A deeper or longer downturn could force the company to slow buybacks or reconsider the dividend. ^[40]
Cyclical exposure
Luxury vehicles are highly sensitive to global economic cycles. Weakness in China, Europe or the US could offset benefits from new models and AI‑driven efficiency gains. ^[41]
EV and software execution
Maintaining attractive margins while investing heavily in EV platforms, MB.OS software and AI involves significant execution risk. Mis‑steps could compress returns on capital just as competition intensifies. ^[42]
Tariffs and regulation
Further trade barriers – especially between the EU, US and China – would directly hit costs and demand. Meanwhile, evolving EU emissions and fleet rules could accelerate the shift to EVs faster than some customers are ready to move. ^[43]
Restructuring and labour risk
Large workforce adjustments, in an industry already shedding jobs in Germany, can trigger political pushback and operational disruption. ^[44]

9. Bottom line: how MBG.DE looks on 2 December 2025

As of 2 December 2025, Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock sits at an interesting intersection:

Value & income: low‑single‑digit forward P/E, a double‑digit free‑cash‑flow yield on past numbers and a dividend yield north of 7%, reinforced by a €2 billion buyback.
Cyclical downside: revenue and earnings are falling, margins are under pressure and management itself guides to significantly lower 2025 results versus 2024.
Transformation optionality: the biggest product and tech launch programme in the company’s history, heavy investment in AI and process intelligence, and a sharper focus on top‑end vehicles all offer a path back to higher profitability – but with execution risk.

For income‑oriented investors who can tolerate auto‑sector volatility, MBG.DE currently looks like a classic high‑yield cyclical with moderate capital‑gain potential. For more risk‑averse investors, the combination of macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing restructuring may justify the stock’s discount and argue for caution.

As always, this overview is informational, not investment advice. Anyone considering Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock should weigh these factors against their own objectives and risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.

References

Mercedes‑Benz Group AG Stock on 2 December 2025: Buyback, AI Push and 7%+ Dividend Put MBG in the Spotlight

1. Mercedes‑Benz share price today

2. Fundamentals: 2025 is a down year, but guidance holds