Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is closing in on year-end with a rare mix of policy-driven headlines, regulatory acceleration, and pipeline catalysts that are shaping investor expectations for 2026 and beyond. From a White House-backed drug-pricing framework that offers tariff relief to drugmakers, to the FDA’s fast-track voucher program attaching itself to two Merck assets with blockbuster potential, MRK stock is being evaluated not just on quarterly numbers—but on whether Merck can extend growth beyond Keytruda while navigating intensifying U.S. drug-pricing scrutiny. [1]
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready roundup of today’s MRK stock action, the key news moving the narrative, and the latest analyst forecasts and debate points—all as of Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025.
MRK stock price today (Dec. 23, 2025)
As of 12:24 p.m. ET (17:24 UTC) on Tuesday, Merck shares were trading around $104.68, essentially flat on the day (down about $0.04 from the prior close). The intraday range has been roughly $104.23 to $105.37 on volume near 4.0 million shares at the time of the update.
That “quiet tape” masks a louder reality: investors are currently re-rating MRK based on how much certainty recent policy developments provide—and whether Merck’s late-stage pipeline can credibly refill the revenue gap expected when Keytruda faces loss of exclusivity later this decade. [2]
The dominant headline: Merck joins the TrumpRx drug-pricing agreements
The biggest market-moving storyline hanging over large-cap pharma in the second half of December is the Trump administration’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) pricing push, delivered through agreements tied to TrumpRx—a platform designed to steer certain purchases through direct-to-consumer channels.
What the deal says—and why MRK investors cared
According to Reuters, President Donald Trump and nine pharmaceutical companies, including Merck, announced agreements aimed at reducing prices for drugs in Medicaid and for some cash-pay purchases, while also pushing MFN-style pricing commitments for new launches. In exchange, companies can receive a three-year exemption from tariffs tied to Section 232 import actions. [3]
From an MRK stock perspective, the market’s immediate focus wasn’t just “lower prices”—it was the trade-off: policy clarity and tariff certainty versus the risk of a broad, unpredictable price-control regime. Reuters reported that drugmaker shares generally rose after the announcement as investors downplayed the economic hit and viewed the framework as less punitive than feared, especially given existing rebate and discount structures in the U.S. drug channel. [4]
Merck’s own terms: Januvia, Janumet, and the enlicitide angle
Merck’s company release emphasized that it plans to offer Januvia, Janumet, and Janumet XR to eligible U.S. patients at a cash price approximately 70% off list price through a direct-to-patient program, with the program designed to expand over time. Merck also positioned its investigational cholesterol drug enlicitide decanoate as a future addition (pending FDA approval), framing the agreement as part of an effort to reduce U.S. vs. international pricing disparities. [5]
The White House fact sheet similarly highlighted Merck’s plan to cut the price of Januvia for direct purchases through TrumpRx (example pricing in the fact sheet lists a reduction from $330 to $100 for direct purchase). [6]
The key investor question: Does this hit Merck’s earnings power?
A central debate point is whether headline “discounts off list price” translate into a meaningful incremental earnings hit, given that many payers already negotiate deep rebates—particularly in government channels. Reuters explicitly noted that analysts have pointed out Medicaid is a smaller share of total drug spending and already benefits from substantial discounts, which could limit the incremental impact. [7]
In other words: for MRK stock, the near-term read-through has been less about an immediate earnings reset and more about reduced policy tail risk, plus an opening for Merck to tell a “volume + access + innovation” story into 2026.
FDA fast-track catalyst: National Priority Vouchers for two Merck drugs
Just as policy headlines grabbed attention, Merck also landed a concrete regulatory tailwind: the FDA’s Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher (CNPV) pilot program.
What the FDA awarded and what it means
On Dec. 19, 2025, the FDA announced it awarded national priority vouchers to two investigational products:
- Enlicitide decanoate (an oral PCSK9 inhibitor candidate aimed at lowering LDL cholesterol)
- Sacituzumab tirumotecan (sac-TMT) (a TROP2-directed antibody-drug conjugate)
The FDA described the program as a mechanism to accelerate reviews, potentially compressing review timelines significantly compared with standard cycles. [8]
Reuters reported these were among the 17th and 18th medicines tied to the program, and described review times being shortened dramatically (from typical timeframes down to roughly 1–2 months under the voucher pathway). [9]
Why enlicitide has MRK investors paying attention
Enlicitide is being framed—by both Merck and external coverage—as a potential first-in-class oral PCSK9 inhibitor. The strategic appeal is straightforward: PCSK9 is already a validated cholesterol-lowering target, but most existing therapies are injectable, and uptake has historically been constrained by utilization friction and access dynamics.
Merck’s TrumpRx-related release leaned into that market structure, arguing that while injectable PCSK9 inhibitors are effective, they remain underused, and positioning enlicitide as an “easy-to-use daily pill” approach aimed at broadening real-world utilization. [10]
Reuters also noted the competitive backdrop—specifically pointing to injectable PCSK9 competitors such as Amgen’s Repatha—and framed enlicitide as a candidate with multibillion-dollar annual sales potential if it lands as hoped. [11]
Sac-TMT: partnership financing and a big number attached to the thesis
Sac-TMT is also being treated as a high-upside oncology asset. Reuters reported Merck entered a development funding agreement with Blackstone Life Sciences for $700 million to help develop the program, an example of risk-sharing that can preserve capital while still advancing late-stage ambitions. [12]
Separately, Reuters coverage tied to the priority voucher program cited expectations for sac-TMT peak sales that could reach over $10 billion annually, underscoring why investors view it as a meaningful component of Merck’s post-Keytruda growth toolkit—though those figures remain estimates and depend on trial outcomes, labeling, and competitive dynamics. [13]
Pipeline momentum: Keytruda lifecycle defense and “next engines” beyond oncology
Merck’s investment narrative still begins with Keytruda, but the story investors are trading now is whether Merck can defend Keytruda’s franchise and scale other growth drivers fast enough to blunt the expected 2028-era cliff.
Keytruda QLEX: a strategic move ahead of the 2028 patent cliff
In September 2025, Reuters reported the FDA approved a subcutaneous formulation branded Keytruda Qlex, enabling administration under the skin and potentially improving convenience and clinic efficiency. Reuters explicitly framed the move as part of Merck’s strategy to defend Keytruda’s market share as biosimilar competition approaches, with Merck previously expecting peak adoption of the injectable version to reach 30%–40% of patients on Keytruda within two years. [14]
Keytruda + Padcev in muscle-invasive bladder cancer: fresh clinical momentum
On Dec. 17, 2025, Merck announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 KEYNOTE-B15 (EV-304) trial in cisplatin-eligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Merck said Keytruda plus Padcev, used before and after surgery, showed statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in event-free survival, overall survival, and pathologic complete response versus standard chemotherapy and surgery. [15]
For MRK stock, this type of readout matters because earlier-stage oncology expansion is one of the clearest ways to sustain immunotherapy revenue even as late-decade competition intensifies.
Winrevair (sotatercept): a non-Keytruda growth pillar getting European momentum
Beyond oncology, one of Merck’s most closely watched newer products is WINREVAIR (sotatercept) for pulmonary arterial hypertension.
On Dec. 12, 2025, Merck announced that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP recommended approval of an expanded indication for Winrevair, potentially broadening EU use to include patients across WHO functional classes II, III, and IV, with a final European Commission decision expected in Q1 2026. Merck highlighted Phase 3 ZENITH data showing a 76% reduction in risk of major morbidity and mortality outcomes, and noted the trial was stopped early due to overwhelming efficacy. [16]
This matters to MRK’s “beyond Keytruda” narrative because pulmonary hypertension is a durable specialty market where meaningful differentiation can translate to long-lived revenue.
Risk monitor: FDA scrutiny of RSV antibody therapies for infants
Not all recent headlines are purely bullish. In December, Merck was pulled into a broader regulatory review involving RSV prevention therapies for infants.
Reuters reported the FDA launched fresh safety scrutiny of RSV therapies for infants involving Merck, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca—while noting companies maintain their studies support safety. [17]
The Associated Press similarly reported the FDA opened a safety review of injectable RSV antibody drugs used to protect infants and toddlers, including Merck’s Enflonsia and Sanofi’s Beyfortus, while noting no new safety signals were reported by the companies in that coverage. [18]
For MRK stock, the risk isn’t necessarily an immediate sales collapse—rather, it’s the potential for label changes, utilization friction, or slower adoption if the review process triggers heightened caution among providers and payers. The market will be watching for how regulators frame next steps and whether any new data requests emerge.
What Merck’s latest financial baseline says heading into 2026
Even with policy and pipeline dominating headlines, MRK stock remains anchored to earnings power—and to whether Merck can keep growth broad-based.
Q3 2025 recap and 2025 guidance
In October, Reuters reported Merck posted third-quarter revenue of $17.28 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.58, with Keytruda revenue rising to $8.1 billion in the quarter, offsetting weaker Gardasil trends in China. Reuters also noted Merck adjusted its full-year revenue outlook to $64.5–$65.0 billion and guided for full-year earnings of $8.93–$8.98 per share. [19]
Merck’s own Q3 2025 release provides the same key figures (including sales and EPS) and additional detail around the company’s GAAP vs. non-GAAP presentation. [20]
The next scheduled catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings
Merck’s investor relations calendar lists the Q4 2025 earnings call for Feb. 3, 2026. [21]
Between now and then, investors will be watching for updates on:
- The practical rollout of direct-to-patient pricing efforts tied to TrumpRx dynamics
- Timing clarity for enlicitide’s next regulatory steps
- Winrevair’s commercialization cadence and European decision path
- The evolving outlook for Gardasil demand in China and broader international markets [22]
Merck stock forecast: what analysts are saying now
Analyst outlooks for MRK have turned more active in December, with several notable target changes and a clear theme: investors are debating whether Merck’s pipeline and newer launches can meaningfully replace Keytruda’s future revenue gap.
BMO: upgrade to Outperform with a $130 target
Investing.com reported BMO upgraded Merck to Outperform and raised its price target to $130, arguing Merck is building a portfolio capable of sustaining growth beyond Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity later this decade. The same report said BMO believes Merck can replace roughly 90% of peak Keytruda sales over time through internal development and business development, and pointed to catalysts spanning cardio-pulmonary and HIV programs. [23]
BofA: target raised to $120, Buy rating maintained
A TipRanks/TheFly note reported Bank of America raised its Merck price target to $120 from $105 and kept a Buy rating, citing a more “rounded out” pipeline and shifting valuation emphasis toward a FY27 EPS framework. [24]
Morgan Stanley: target raised to $102, Equal Weight
Another TipRanks/TheFly item reported Morgan Stanley raised its target to $102 from $100 and maintained Equal Weight, with the analyst suggesting some policy overhangs that dominated biopharma in 2025 could fade in 2026, bringing focus back to fundamentals. [25]
How to read the spread
A simple takeaway: in the most recent cluster of published notes, the visible target range runs roughly $102 to $130, reflecting two very different ways to model Merck:
- The “pipeline replaces the cliff” case: bullish targets assume Winrevair, next-gen oncology assets (including ADCs), and lifecycle management (like Keytruda Qlex) can smooth the revenue curve well past 2028. [26]
- The “execution and pricing risk” case: more cautious targets assume drug-pricing frameworks, competitive launches, and the size of the Keytruda hole keep valuation constrained until replacement revenue is clearly visible in reported results. [27]
Dividend check: what income-focused MRK investors are tracking
Merck remains a notable dividend payer in large-cap pharma. Fidelity’s dividend page lists Merck’s most recent dividend at $0.85 per share, with an ex-dividend date of Dec. 15, 2025, a declaration date of Nov. 18, 2025, and a payable date of Jan. 8, 2026. [28]
For many long-term holders, the dividend helps offset periods when the stock trades more like a “policy headline proxy” than a pure earnings-growth story.
What to watch next for Merck stock
As of Dec. 23, 2025, the MRK stock narrative heading into 2026 is likely to pivot on a short list of follow-through items:
- TrumpRx implementation details: how “direct-to-patient” pricing works in practice, who qualifies, and whether it changes volumes or only changes optics. [29]
- Enlicitide timeline: confirmation of filing windows and whether FDA fast-track mechanics translate into a meaningful time-to-market advantage. [30]
- Sac-TMT development progress: updates tied to the Blackstone-funded workstream and broader ADC competition. [31]
- Winrevair in Europe: the European Commission decision expected in Q1 2026 and any guidance on uptake expectations. [32]
- RSV safety review: any FDA communication that could affect Enflonsia utilization. [33]
- Q4 earnings on Feb. 3, 2026: management’s updated view on 2026 growth drivers and pricing assumptions. [34]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock prices move quickly, and forward-looking statements depend on clinical, regulatory, competitive, and policy outcomes.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.merck.com, 6. www.whitehouse.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fda.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.merck.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.merck.com, 16. www.merck.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.merck.com, 21. www.merck.com, 22. www.merck.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.fidelity.co.uk, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.fda.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.merck.com, 33. apnews.com, 34. www.merck.com
