December 15, 2025 — Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) traded around $99.59 in Monday afternoon action, down about 0.23% on the day, as investors balanced a fresh wave of bullish analyst updates against a busy set of catalysts spanning Winrevair, Keytruda, vaccines, and headline regulatory scrutiny.
The setup for MRK stock into year-end is increasingly about “what comes after Keytruda,” and the story is getting more layered: an expanded European pathway for Winrevair (sotatercept), a higher dividend heading into the ex-dividend date, and new legal and policy crosswinds around Merck’s newer product rollouts and the U.S. vaccine environment.
What’s driving Merck stock on Dec. 15, 2025
Three themes are dominating MRK’s news-and-analysis flow today:
- Wall Street is turning more constructive (again) on MRK’s 2026 narrative—most visibly via a Bank of America price-target raise. [1]
- Winrevair is back in focus after a positive European CHMP opinion supporting broader use—important because Winrevair is one of Merck’s key “next growth engines.” [2]
- Shareholder-return optics improve today as the stock hits its ex-dividend date for a higher quarterly payout. [3]
Analyst call of the day: BofA lifts MRK price target to $120
The most marketable “stock headline” on December 15 is the Bank of America Securities update: BofA raised its price target to $120 from $105 and maintained a Buy rating, according to multiple market trackers that compiled the note and the broader run of recent analyst actions. [4]
That move matters less as a single number and more as a signal that the Street increasingly believes Merck’s post-Keytruda plan is becoming more underwritten by identifiable products—with Winrevair repeatedly mentioned in recent bullish revisions (including other firms lifting targets earlier in December). [5]
The broader “December reset” in targets
BofA’s update lands in a cluster of target changes over the past few weeks, including:
- Wells Fargo upgrading MRK to Overweight and lifting its target to $125 (late November). [6]
- Goldman Sachs and Scotiabank target increases to $120 (early December). [7]
- Guggenheim raising its target to $122 (Dec. 5) while explicitly tying the revision to incremental Winrevair-related assumptions, according to reports of the note. [8]
Taken together, this is what a “re-rating attempt” looks like in large-cap pharma: analysts are increasingly willing to assign higher probability-adjusted value to a handful of pipeline and newly launched products—precisely as investors demand clarity on how Merck replaces eventual Keytruda exclusivity.
Winrevair: European expansion adds fuel to Merck’s “next growth driver” story
A second major pillar supporting the day’s constructive tone is Winrevair (sotatercept), Merck’s pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) therapy.
CHMP supports broader use; EU decision expected in early 2026
Market coverage today highlights that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP issued a positive opinion recommending approval of an expanded Winrevair indication in combination with other PAH therapies, extending the treated population to adults across WHO Functional Class II, III, and IV. The CHMP opinion then goes to the European Commission, with a final decision anticipated in Q1 2026. [9]
The data point investors keep repeating: “76% reduction”
The expanded-use argument is anchored in the Phase 3 ZENITH study, where Winrevair added to background therapy produced a statistically significant, clinically meaningful 76% reduction in risk of major morbidity and mortality outcomes versus placebo, per the summaries circulating in today’s analyst and market coverage. [10]
Why Winrevair matters to the stock right now
Merck’s 2025 narrative has been dominated by balancing:
- continued strength from Keytruda,
- near-term turbulence in Gardasil (especially China), and
- urgency to build a credible “second act” beyond Keytruda later this decade.
Winrevair is increasingly treated as a cornerstone of that second act. Reuters’ reporting around Merck’s Q3 results explicitly framed Winrevair as one of the newer drugs Merck is leaning on to broaden growth beyond Keytruda. [11]
Dividend catalyst: MRK goes ex-dividend today for a higher payout
December 15 is also a calendar day for income-focused holders: MRK’s ex-dividend date is Dec. 15, 2025, with a $0.85/share quarterly dividend scheduled for payment on Jan. 8, 2026 (and a matching record date of Dec. 15 reflected in market dividend tables). [12]
That $0.85 payout implies $3.40 annualized, with market trackers placing the forward yield around the mid-3% range based on the stock’s current price levels. [13]
Dividends don’t usually move big pharma shares day-to-day—but on a day when price action is relatively muted, the optics of a higher payout can reinforce the “defensive quality + transition story” positioning many investors seek in large pharma.
Keytruda strategy: convenience wins in the U.S., but Europe faces a patent roadblock
Even as Merck builds the “what’s next” story, Keytruda remains the financial center of gravity—and developments around Keytruda’s delivery are increasingly part of the valuation debate.
U.S. approval of a subcutaneous Keytruda formulation
In September, Reuters reported that the U.S. FDA approved a subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda (a more convenient under-the-skin administration), positioning it as part of Merck’s strategy to defend Keytruda’s market as biosimilar competition approaches. [14]
Germany injunction: Halozyme dispute complicates EU rollout
But Europe isn’t a straight line. On Dec. 4, Halozyme announced that a German court granted a preliminary injunction ordering Merck to stop distributing and offering Keytruda SC in Germany, tied to a patent dispute (Halozyme’s MDASE patents). [15]
STAT’s coverage characterized the ruling as a setback that forces Merck to halt the Keytruda SC launch in Germany while patients can still access the IV version. [16]
For MRK stock, the key investor question isn’t whether Keytruda SC exists—it now does in the U.S.—but whether legal friction slows international adoption, undercuts the convenience narrative, or creates incremental uncertainty in the product-defense phase ahead of expected exclusivity pressure.
RSV and the U.S. vaccine environment: FDA safety review adds a headline risk factor
Another “current headline” hanging over vaccine-related names is not about Gardasil directly, but about RSV prevention products for infants.
Reuters reported that U.S. health regulators informed senior executives at Merck, Sanofi and AstraZeneca that their approved RSV preventive therapies for infants would face fresh safety scrutiny, including Merck’s RSV antibody product Enflonsia. [17]
The Associated Press similarly reported that the FDA opened a safety review of injectable RSV drugs for babies and toddlers, describing the products as lab-made antibodies (not vaccines) and noting that both Merck and Sanofi said they have not seen new safety signals. [18]
For MRK shareholders, this is best understood as headline volatility risk rather than a fully quantified earnings event—especially since the reporting emphasizes that the agency can update labeling if warranted, and the companies say they remain confident in safety. [19]
Still, the political and policy backdrop described in the reporting means investors are watching whether “review” becomes “restriction,” and whether that spills over into broader vaccine sentiment.
Where Merck stands fundamentally: strong Keytruda offsets vaccine weakness, but guidance matters
To understand the stock’s 2025 setup, the most important financial checkpoint remains Merck’s late-October earnings update.
Reuters reported that Merck posted higher Q3 revenue as Keytruda growth offset a drop in Gardasil sales in China—but the stock dipped after Merck lowered the high end of its full-year revenue forecast. Merck’s updated revenue outlook was $64.5B to $65.0B, and adjusted EPS guidance was $8.93 to $8.98. [20]
Key datapoints in that report included:
- Q3 revenue:$17.28B (vs. ~$16.96B estimate cited in the piece) [21]
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58 [22]
- Keytruda sales:$8.1B, up year-over-year [23]
- Gardasil sales:$1.75B, with China still a major swing factor [24]
Separately, Reuters’ July reporting underscored why China remains sensitive: Merck extended its pause on Gardasil shipments to China through at least the end of 2025 due to persistent demand weakness, even as management emphasized China’s reduced contribution to the overall growth picture. [25]
The combined takeaway is the one MRK bulls and bears keep returning to:
- The base business is still producing, led by Keytruda.
- The transition is real, and execution risk remains, especially around vaccines and the late-decade Keytruda exclusivity question. [26]
Forecasts: what Wall Street expects next for MRK stock
Consensus views remain constructive—but not euphoric—reflecting Merck’s mix of “defensive” and “transition” traits.
One widely used sell-side aggregation shows:
- A consensus rating around “Buy”
- An average price target around $109–$110 (with a wide dispersion between bullish and cautious firms) [27]
In plain English, analysts broadly see mid-to-high single-digit upside from current levels on average, but with meaningful disagreement about how quickly Merck can scale newer assets (like Winrevair) to offset the eventual Keytruda cliff. [28]
Options market color: mixed-to-cautious positioning shows up in “big money” chatter
Another piece of December 15 market content comes from options-focused commentary, which flagged unusual options activity and described signs of bearish positioning in parts of the options chain (while also listing a slate of generally positive analyst targets in the same write-up). [29]
Options flow isn’t fundamentals—but it can amplify short-term moves, especially around news catalysts like regulatory decisions or analyst actions.
The risks investors are still watching closely
Even with today’s upbeat analyst tone, MRK’s roadmap has several clear pressure points:
- Keytruda concentration and timing: Merck is still working against the clock to deepen its portfolio before Keytruda faces biosimilar competition later this decade. [30]
- Gardasil visibility: China demand and inventory digestion remain a headline and forecasting variable, and Merck previously extended the China shipment pause through at least year-end 2025. [31]
- Legal friction around Keytruda SC: The German injunction and broader Halozyme dispute introduce execution uncertainty in international rollout and product-defense strategy. [32]
- Policy/regulatory noise around pediatric prevention products: The RSV safety review headlines create a “watch the regulators” dynamic for Merck’s newer preventive offerings. [33]
What to watch next after Dec. 15
If you’re tracking MRK stock into early 2026, the next “decision points” are fairly clear:
- European Commission decision on Winrevair expanded use (expected Q1 2026) [34]
- Winrevair commercial trajectory as investors judge whether it can become a true multi-billion-dollar pillar [35]
- Any updates on Keytruda SC patent disputes and how they affect launch cadence outside the U.S. [36]
- Clarity on Gardasil normalization once China shipping/demand dynamics reset beyond 2025 [37]
- Any outcome or escalation from the FDA’s RSV safety review process [38]
Bottom line (Dec. 15, 2025): Merck stock is sitting at the intersection of defensive pharma cash flows and a high-stakes portfolio transition. Today’s news flow—especially BofA’s target hike and Winrevair’s European momentum—supports the bull case that Merck’s post-Keytruda plan is becoming more concrete, while ongoing policy and legal headlines keep the risk premium from disappearing. [39]
References
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