Mexico City, March 7, 2026, 03:12 CST
- The S&P/BMV IPC dropped 5.73% across five sessions, closing out Friday at 67,312.78 points.
- Global risk appetite took a hit as oil prices shot higher and U.S. jobs data came in soft, weighing on Mexico-exposed stocks.
- USMCA review talks kick off the week of March 16, with U.S. and Mexican officials heading to the table—a fresh source of uncertainty for Mexico’s export-driven market.
Mexico’s benchmark S&P/BMV IPC tumbled 5.73% across the week, wrapping up Friday at 67,312.78.
Timing played a role here. The slide landed just as investors were recalibrating expectations for growth and interest rates after an unexpected dip in U.S. payrolls and a spike in oil prices—a combination that usually deals a blow to emerging market risk assets, with cyclical sectors taking the initial hit.
“Does the Fed cut to help the labor market or does it hold … to tamp down inflation expectations?” wondered Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, after the U.S. data dropped. He flagged stagflation as the risk traders are now stuck watching. Reuters
Mexico’s market slid Friday, with the IPC dropping 1.54%. Miners, industrials, and airline stocks lagged as oil spiked and the peso slid against the dollar.
Grupo Mexico, Grupo Carso, and Cemex slipped, ranking among the index’s laggards. Orbia and FEMSA, on the other hand, closed out the session with gains, according to exchange figures from Investing.com.
The broader trend remains choppy, not shattered. Trading Economics puts the IPC up 27.64% for the year, despite a 5.84% drop in the last month, with the index still a long way from its February high of 72,111.41.
Most of the pressure came from abroad. Wall Street closed out the week in the red, dragged down by a sharp 12% jump in U.S. oil prices. Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, pointed out that the spike “raises the question of whether the Fed will even be able to cut rates.” Reuters
Trade policy is back on the front burner. According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, U.S. and Mexican officials plan to kick off bilateral talks the week of March 16 as they launch their joint review of the USMCA deal. The administration faces a July 1 deadline to inform Congress if it wants to propose changes.
The peso lost ground this week, underscoring a mood change. According to Wise’s exchange-rate data, the dollar hit 17.8909 pesos on March 6, while just a week earlier, on Feb. 28, it was down at 17.2195.
Investors kept watching domestic rates. Banco de México didn’t budge on its benchmark overnight interbank rate, holding at 7.00% in its most recent decision. That pause means Mexico’s carry—the yield edge that usually props up the peso—could be on shakier ground if risk appetite continues to fade.
Still, there’s a catch: headline risk hasn’t gone anywhere. A drawn-out surge in crude sparked by the Middle East conflict could quickly revive inflation worries in Mexico, with potential fallout for rate outlooks and consumer spending. Separately, the USMCA review is looming—raising the specter of renewed disputes over rules of origin and supply chain logistics.
