WARSAW, July 25, 2026, 12:00 (CEST) — U.S. stock trading ended for the weekend
- Microsoft and Meta are set to release earnings after markets close on Wednesday, July 29, with Apple scheduled to report on Thursday, shortly after the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision.
- Alphabet raised its capital expenditure outlook for 2026 to up to $205 billion, with its shares dropping 7.1% on Thursday, marking the steepest decline since May 2025.
- The three main U.S. stock indexes declined last week, with the Nasdaq leading losses, down 2%.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT, Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META, and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL are set to release their earnings this week as investors appear less responsive to results that surpass expectations. Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL demonstrated this change; the Google parent beat revenue projections on Wednesday with 24% growth but still experienced a sharp share drop.
The catalyst was cash, not growth. Alphabet’s capital expenditure for the quarter topped its operating cash flow, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion—an unusual move for the tech giant, known for consistent cash production. Quarterly capex hit $44.9 billion, the highest to date and twice what it was a year before. This figure now sets the standard for the week’s reporting. With spending levels climbing, investors are shifting their focus from the amount Big Tech invests to which firms have cash flows robust enough to support it. MLQ
The total is climbing. In late January, FactSet surveys indicated the top four cloud companies would spend just above $470 billion this year. However, recent company outlooks signal much higher figures. Microsoft forecasts around $190 billion for calendar 2026, Alphabet projects between $195 billion and $205 billion, Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN has highlighted approximately $200 billion, and Meta expects $125 billion to $145 billion. At midpoint values, this brings the combined figure to near $725 billion, according to this article’s math. Consensus estimates have increased by more than 50% over the past six months.
Some of the jitters were reflected in market moves last week. The Magnificent Seven collectively saw almost $800 billion wiped from their market capitalisations on Thursday. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 7,411.98, slipping 0.6% over the week, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 24,975.82, down 2.1%. The Nasdaq 100 posted consecutive weekly losses for the first time since late March.
The trade has divided. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF fell over 5% this week, whereas semiconductor ETFs gained. Investors are penalising the buyers and rewarding their vendors.
Microsoft is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after markets close on Wednesday, alongside its first fiscal 2027 forecast. Refinitiv’s analyst consensus projects earnings of $4.24 per share, up 16.2%, and revenue of $87.67 billion, a 14.7% gain. These are analyst estimates, not official results. The company previously projected over $40 billion in capital expenditures for the June quarter. That amounts to roughly 46 cents spent on infrastructure for every forecast dollar in revenue. Approximately $25 billion of the annual capital plan is tied to increased prices for components, while last quarter’s gross margin was the tightest seen since 2022 as costs related to data-center depreciation rose.
Bulls point to their own metrics. Azure expanded by 40% in the last quarter. Commercial remaining performance obligations total $627 billion. Finance chief Amy Hood said in April the company stays “confident in the return on these investments.” The stock has moved differently. Shares are around $390, down 22% in the past year despite four consecutive earnings beats. Tickeron + 3
Brian Schwartz of Oppenheimer expects the impasse to continue. In a preview dated July 22, he maintained an Outperform rating with a $515 price target, saying demand remains strong but that skepticism around capex returns and the belief Microsoft is playing catch-up in AI are unlikely to be resolved with a single earnings report.
Meta is scheduled to report the same evening. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect earnings per share of $7.19, with revenue projected to reach approximately $60.3 billion, within the firm’s own forecast of $58 billion to $61 billion. Capital spending remains in focus: first-quarter capex totaled $19.84 billion, coming in below estimates, while full-year guidance is set at $125 billion to $145 billion. Reaching that annual target would mean capital expenditures of around $35 billion to $42 billion per quarter for the rest of the year—about twice the first-quarter level, as calculated in this article. The midpoint would almost double the 2025 budget of $72.2 billion.
Meta shareholders are familiar with this scenario. In the previous quarter, the company posted a 33% revenue increase, marking its fastest rate since 2021, yet the stock still declined about 7% in after-hours trading. Shares are trading near $650 ahead of the next report. MEXC
Apple provides a balance. Analysts project fiscal third-quarter earnings at $1.89 per share, a 20.4% rise, with revenue anticipated at $108.89 billion, up 15.8%, after Thursday’s market close. Shares have gained 20.1% so far this year as of July 23, and earlier this month, the company briefly overtook Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA as the world’s largest by market capitalization. The stock climbed 3.5% on Friday, supporting the Dow. Apple, in contrast to others in the sector, is not investing in its own large-scale data-center infrastructure. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring stated “Apple’s fundamentals remain very solid,” while noting that a stock trading at all-time highs must avoid any setbacks; he increased his price target to $364. Rising expenses for memory and storage are raising margin concerns. Kiplinger + 6
This reflects the Street’s standard outlook for the week. Numbers shown are early consensus estimates.
| Company | Report | EPS est. | Revenue est. | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT | Wed, Jul 29 | $4.24 | $87.67 bln | EPS up 16.2%, revenue up 14.7% |
| Meta NASDAQ:META | Wed, Jul 29 | $7.19 | ~$60.3 bln | Outlook: $58–61 bln revenue |
| Apple NASDAQ:AAPL | Thu, Jul 30 | $1.89 | $108.89 bln | EPS up 20.4%, revenue up 15.8% |
The capex ratchet, which has influenced markets more than any earnings figure this year:
| Company | Previous 2026 forecast | Latest 2026 outlook | Announced on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL | $180–190 bln (April guidance) | $195–205 bln | Jul 22 |
| Microsoft | ~$155 bln (analyst consensus) | ~$190 bln | Apr 29 |
| Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN | — | ~$200 bln | Late April |
| Meta | $115–135 bln | $125–145 bln | Apr 29 |
The macroeconomic calendar brings added volatility. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision Wednesday, while the week will also feature an initial reading of second-quarter GDP and the latest core PCE inflation data for June. New U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on most imports came into force Friday. Brent crude ended at $96.78 a barrel, having briefly risen above $102 during the week amid the Iran conflict.
Risks emerge on multiple fronts. Another increase in capital expenditures could trigger a sell-off similar to Alphabet’s, while Bloomberg notes a growing reliance on debt to finance outlays, making the trade sensitive to bond yields. Alphabet has also indicated that spending will surge again in 2027. Margins face pressure from rising component costs, oil prices and tariffs. Even strong earnings may fall short. Bloomberg
By the end of trading on Friday, the market will see if negative free cash flow is unique to Alphabet or reflects a broader industry trend. Alphabet’s CFO hinted at challenges, stating, “We’re still in a supply-constrained environment,” she said. Limited supply signals ongoing investments. Apple, set to report last, stands out among the three with a unique advantage: it faces no need to justify capital expenditures. CNBC
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