NEW YORK, Jan 22, 2026, 06:35 AM EST — Premarket
Mortgage rates today held near the 6% mark early Thursday. Bankrate’s national average 30-year fixed rate was 6.13%, and the annual percentage rate (APR), which includes fees, was 6.21% in its 6:30 a.m. reading. The average 30-year refinance rate was 6.50%, while the 15-year fixed APR was 5.66%. (Bankrate)
That matters now because mortgages sit at the choke point for the U.S. housing market. A small move in rates can swing monthly payments quickly, and the line between “maybe” and “no” is still thin for many borrowers.
It also matters for markets. Mortgage rates ripple into homebuilder demand, lender volumes and credit conditions, and they can shift expectations for consumer spending even before Wall Street opens.
Mortgage applications jumped 14.1% last week as rates dipped further, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. The group said its Refinance Index rose 20% from the prior week and refinance activity was 183% higher than a year earlier, while the Purchase Index gained 5%. “Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications,” MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said, noting the 30-year conforming rate averaged 6.16%, the lowest since September 2024. (MBA)
Bond yields stayed in focus as the main input into mortgage pricing. The U.S. Treasury’s yield curve showed the 10-year yield ended Wednesday at 4.26%, down from 4.30% on Tuesday. Mortgage rates often track the 10-year yield, but the spread can widen when volatility or lender margins shift. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Housing-linked stocks moved ahead of the bell. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF was up about 2.6% in premarket indications, while D.R. Horton and Lennar rose roughly 3.2% and 2.5%. Rocket Companies slipped about 3.7%, and the iShares MBS ETF, which tracks agency mortgage-backed securities, was up about 0.3%.
But the demand picture is uneven, and it does not take much to knock it off course. Contracts to buy existing homes fell 9.3% in December to 71.8, a five-month low, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. “Roughly 80% of mortgage holders still have a rate below 6%,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic researcher at Realtor.com, a lock-in that has kept resale inventory tight. (Reuters)
The Federal Reserve remains the bigger swing factor for the weeks ahead. All 100 economists in a Reuters poll expected the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its Jan. 27-28 meeting. “We think the Fed will remain on hold for the remainder of Powell’s term through May,” Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura, said. (Reuters)
Next up is inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release the PCE price index later Thursday as part of its personal income and outlays report, a read the Fed watches closely. Freddie Mac is also scheduled to publish its weekly mortgage rate survey at noon ET, a benchmark that often lands on trading desks as a reality check. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
