New York, January 12, 2026, 07:46 EST — Premarket
- Early Monday, the 30-year fixed rate hit an average of 6.18%, while the 30-year refinance came in at 6.54%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed roughly 3 basis points to 4.30% in early trading.
- Investors are focused on Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release and whether there will be further moves on the $200 billion mortgage-bond purchase order.
The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an average of 6.18% early Monday, according to Bankrate data. Meanwhile, the average 30-year refinance rate stood at 6.54%. “Mortgage rates will remain volatile for the foreseeable future,” said Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage. (Bankrate)
Bond yields nudged higher at the start of the week. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.30%, while the 30-year yield gained 4.5 basis points, reaching 4.86%, according to Reuters market data. (A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.) Mortgage rates usually follow Treasury yields and the pricing of mortgage-backed securities, or MBS — bonds backed by pools of home loans.
Risk was slipping away on the equity tape. S&P 500 E-minis dropped 0.66% to 6,959 points by 5:51 a.m. ET. Dow E-minis were down 0.72%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis tumbled 0.88%, according to Reuters. Investors were also gearing up for Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price inflation report as bank earnings kicked off this week.
Rate shopping remains important. On Jan. 12, Zillow Home Loans was offering a 30-year fixed mortgage at a 5.875% rate, with a 6.024% APR and 1.590 points on its sample terms. (APR, or annual percentage rate, includes fees; “points” are upfront fees that can reduce the interest rate.) (Zillow)
Daily survey data revealed rapid market shifts. On Jan. 9, Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed index dropped to 6.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous day’s 6.21%, after hovering near 6.2% earlier in the week. (Mortgage News Daily)
Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey, a key gauge of U.S. mortgage rates, showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.16% as of Jan. 8. The agency noted rates were lingering near the 6% threshold, with purchase applications climbing over 20% compared to last year. (Freddie Mac)
The government’s push into mortgage-backed securities is the key policy driver. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters the aim is to keep the administration’s MBS purchases roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s runoff. “The Fed has about $15 billion of roll-off every month,” he said, referring to the Fed’s balance-sheet shrinkage. (Reuters)
The plan is sizable by mortgage-market standards but pales compared to the Fed’s pandemic-era purchases. President Donald Trump directed the FHFA to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion of their own mortgage bonds, Reuters reported. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, put the potential impact at 10 to 15 basis points — noticeable, yet far from a cure-all. (Reuters)
Wall Street saw the move mainly through the lens of volume. On Jan. 9, mortgage lenders and housing-related stocks surged: loanDepot jumped 24%, Rocket Companies added 6.6%, and UWM Holdings climbed 11.6%, Reuters reported. Homebuilders also gained ground, with Lennar up 7.5% and D.R. Horton rising 6%. “Every little bit will help push mortgage yields lower, but this might be self-defeating,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, warning that cheaper financing could fuel demand instead.
The Fed’s trajectory remains the key driver for the curve. J.P. Morgan forecasts the next rate hike won’t come until 2027, Reuters reported, as Barclays and Goldman Sachs pushed their expected rate cuts further into late 2026. Traders are currently pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its January meeting.
The risk is clear: a hotter-than-expected inflation report on Tuesday could trigger a sell-off in Treasuries, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher. Should the MBS-buying pace lag market expectations, or if spreads widen rather than tighten, any gains for borrowers might evaporate fast.
On Tuesday, Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for December will be released. The Fed’s policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27–28 later this month.
