NEW YORK, March 18, 2026, 16:37 EDT
Mortgage rates in the U.S. stuck close to 6.3% on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged—leaving the housing market under strain just as the spring buying season heats up. According to Mortgage News Daily’s lender survey, the average 30-year fixed rate landed at 6.31%, a touch higher than Tuesday. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that new borrowers locking in rates on typical 30-year loans saw 6.3%.
The week ending March 13 saw mortgage applications slide 10.9%, according to the MBA. Refinancing took the biggest blow, while purchase applications eked out a 1% uptick on the week—putting them 12% higher than this time last year.
The Fed didn’t deliver much in the way of near-term relief. Officials left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and stuck with projections for a single quarter-point cut this year. The 10-year Treasury yield—a key benchmark for mortgage rates—ticked up to 4.26%, climbing six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point. Mortgage rates don’t move in perfect step with the Fed, but they tend to follow shifts in that longer-term Treasury.
“Mortgage rates continued to move higher,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at MBA. He pointed to rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and worries over inflation potentially spilling over further. The 30-year fixed rate, Kan noted, hit its highest level since December 2025. MBA’s Refinance Index dropped 19% from the prior week; conventional refinance applications fell 27%. Still, demand from FHA and VA buyers kept purchase activity from falling further. MBA Newslink
Some buyers are still wading in. Pending home sales ticked up 1.8% in February, with those early-year rate drops coaxing a few more shoppers off the sidelines. Still, NAHB’s Bill Owens described plenty of would-be buyers as “on the fence,” while Hannah Jones at Realtor.com flagged potential “headwinds” for the spring, pointing to conflict, inflation, and shifting tariff policy. Reuters
Mortgage analysts are dialing back expectations for a refinancing pickup. Eric Orenstein, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said uncertainty around rates has “chilled” sentiment on mortgage volumes. He added that hopes for a refinancing rally seem even more distant than last month—even if 30-year rates dip under 6%. MarketWatch
Housing names were firmly in the red. Rocket Companies traded at $14.23 toward the end of Wednesday, with D.R. Horton at $137.25 and Lennar at $94.75—each slipping below their previous closes as Wall Street dumped shares after the Fed meeting.
Muted is the word for the broader outlook. According to a Reuters housing poll out Tuesday, analysts see U.S. home prices climbing just 1.8% this year and 2.5% by 2027. Mortgage rates? No big moves—30-year loans are forecast to hover near 6% all the way through 2028. “The market was basically not doing very much,” summed up ING chief international economist James Knightley. Reuters
The outlook could change fast. A dip in oil and calmer bond yields might pull mortgage rates closer to 6%. But if the Middle East turmoil sustains elevated energy prices and inflation proves stubborn, the 30-year rate might push up to 7% this year, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
