NEW YORK, Jan 7, 2026, 07:39 EST — Premarket
- U.S. 30-year fixed contract rate slipped to 6.25%, its lowest since September 2024, MBA data showed
- Canada’s best advertised 5-year fixed held near 3.89%; UK two-year fixes averaged 4.81%; Australia’s variable average was about 5.51%
- Mortgage lenders and homebuilder shares ticked higher in U.S. premarket trade as Treasury yields eased
U.S. mortgage rates opened 2026 a shade lower, with the Mortgage Bankers Association’s measure of the 30-year fixed contract rate falling to 6.25%, the lowest since September 2024. Applications still fell over a holiday-adjusted two-week stretch, keeping the early-year rebound in refinancing on a tight leash.
Why it matters now: the market is trying to find the point where lower rates actually pull buyers off the sidelines. First American said affordability improved to its best level since the summer of 2022, even as it remained far below pre-pandemic norms, and chief economist Mark Fleming said “the trend is durably heading in the right direction.”
Bond markets are doing most of the work. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.14% early Wednesday after ending Tuesday at 4.165%, while the Fed’s policy rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%. A Reuters report this week showed most regional Fed bank directors opposed December’s discount-rate cut, underlining how jumpy rate expectations can get when fresh data hits.
Mortgage News Daily’s daily index put the U.S. 30-year fixed rate at 6.20% on Tuesday, barely changed from late December. The site flagged rising volatility risk even as the day-to-day moves stayed small.
In Canada, the lowest advertised high-ratio five-year fixed rate was 3.89% and the best five-year variable was about 3.45%, Ratehub.ca said in late Tuesday updates. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since Dec. 10 and is due to decide again on Jan. 28. Toronto-area home sales fell in 2025 and board president Daniel Steinfeld said buyers were “waiting for additional interest rate reductions and more certainty,” Reuters reported.
In Britain, the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate was 4.81% as of Jan. 5 and the average five-year fixed was 4.89%, Moneyfacts data cited by Moneyweek showed. HSBC cut rates on a range of deals on Jan. 5, and broker John Charcol’s Nick Mendes said others were likely to follow “in a measured and selective way” rather than with sweeping cuts; smaller lender Generation Home trimmed some rates by up to 20 basis points, or 0.20 percentage point. The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 3.75% in December and sets its next decision for Feb. 5.
In Australia, the cash rate target is 3.60% and the next decision is scheduled for Feb. 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia says. Canstar pegs the average variable rate paid by existing owner-occupiers at 5.51%, and fixed rates for new loans up to three years at about 5.1%, ABC reported. Canstar’s data insights director Sally Tindall said a shift in rate expectations sparked “a run on fixed rate hikes in December,” with 43 lenders lifting at least one fixed rate.
U.S.-listed rate-sensitive names were a touch firmer in premarket trade: Rocket Companies rose about 0.5% and United Wholesale Mortgage gained about 1.5%, while iShares U.S. Home Construction and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFs were up roughly 0.8% and 0.6%, according to market data.
But the move is easy to reverse. If inflation or wages surprise on the upside, yields can jump quickly, and lenders in each market will reprice fixed-rate deals off higher bond or swap markets just as fast.
The next test is close: the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is due at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by the December employment report on Friday, Jan. 9 — releases that often reset bond yields and mortgage-rate chatter in a hurry. Bls
