SYDNEY, Feb 5, 2026, 17:09 AEDT — After-hours update.
- NAB shares rose slightly post-close, keeping attention on banks following the RBA’s unexpected rate increase.
- Australia’s major four banks have signaled they will raise variable mortgage rates starting mid-February.
- Upcoming catalysts: RBA minutes drop Feb 17, followed by NAB’s Q1 trading update on Feb 18.
Shares of National Australia Bank Limited (NAB.AX) ended Thursday’s session up 0.27%, closing at A$44.05. 1
The stock now serves as a barometer for investors’ expectations on Australian rates. While higher rates can boost bank profits, they also increase the chances of borrower strain and dampen credit growth.
NAB’s upcoming challenge is out in the open: the bank will publish its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18. Investors will be watching closely for clues on loan growth, funding costs, and the trajectory of bad debts. 2
Shares of NAB climbed 2.07% on Wednesday, spearheading the local rally in bank stocks following the central bank’s unexpected shift in rate forecasts. 3
On the retail front, NAB and its counterparts have begun adjusting mortgage rates. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ, and NAB are lifting variable home loan rates by 25 basis points, in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent hike. NAB’s new rates will kick in starting Feb. 13. 4
The RBA raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points—to 3.85%—on Tuesday, marking its first increase in two years. The central bank warned inflation is expected to remain above its target range for a while. 5
Governor Michele Bullock voiced caution about the outlook. “I don’t know if it’s in a (tightening) cycle,” she said, noting the board would be “actively monitoring” data, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank chief economist Sally Auld remains convinced a rate hike will follow in May, with the balance of risks leaning toward further tightening. 6
Thursday saw a choppier mood in markets. Global tech stocks took another hit, weighing on risk appetite in Asia. Financials managed to hold their ground better than the rate-sensitive growth sectors. 7
Banks are zeroing in on margins. Net interest margin—the difference between earnings on loans and the cost of deposits—can expand if lending rates climb quicker than funding costs. But it can shrink too, especially if competition for deposits intensifies.
The downside scenario boils down to basics, not spreadsheets. If rising mortgage rates push arrears up, investors will shift their focus from loan pricing to provisioning and credit quality—particularly in portfolios loaded with housing loans.
The next key dates are coming up fast. On Feb. 17, investors will dissect the RBA’s February meeting minutes. Then, all eyes shift to NAB’s trading update on Feb. 18, searching for evidence that rising rates are lifting profits without pushing borrowers to the brink. 8
