Sydney, Jan 30, 2026, 16:48 AEDT — Market closed
- NAB shares ended Friday roughly 0.7% higher, defying the broader market’s downturn.
- Rising inflation numbers have traders and bank economists zeroed in on the RBA’s rate decision set for Feb. 3.
- NAB’s upcoming key event is its first-quarter trading update, set for Feb. 18.
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd rose on Friday, with investors factoring in an increasing likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike next week. NAB.AX finished at A$43.34, gaining roughly 0.7%.
This shift is significant as bank shares now react to rate forecasts once more. While rising rates might boost lending margins, they also increase the chance that households and small businesses struggle with their repayments.
The week ahead looks tricky. The RBA meets on Feb. 3, while NAB is scheduled to release its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18 — both key gauges investors watch closely for clues on loan growth, margins, and credit quality.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.7% lower, settling at 8,869.10 points.
Inflation figures released earlier this week hit hard. Headline consumer prices climbed 3.8% in the year to December 2025, up from 3.4% in November, according to the statistics bureau.
Markets are increasingly pricing in a rate hike after a key “trimmed mean” inflation gauge — which excludes the largest price swings — came in hotter than expected, pushing the annual rate up to 3.4%. Swaps now show about a 73% probability of a move. ANZ’s Adam Boyton described it as a one-off “insurance” rate increase, while EY’s chief economist Cherelle Murphy said, “the case for tighter monetary policy is clear.” Reuters
Not everyone agrees. Goldman Sachs chief economist Andrew Boak called the decision “a very close call” and pointed out that the RBA often defies expectations. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank remain among the minority still forecasting a hold. Reuters
For NAB, a 25 basis point increase — that’s just a quarter of a percentage point — has a double edge. It can boost interest income on certain loans, yet stricter policy risks dampening credit demand and squeezing borrowers already facing higher housing costs.
Separately, NAB is stirring up talk around costs and staffing. The Australian reported the bank intends to move 110 digital messaging jobs to its Indian office to boost personal banking support hours. Australian staff affected will be offered alternative call-centre voice roles locally. A NAB spokesperson said offshoring decisions are “always difficult.” The Australian
The trade-off isn’t straightforward. Investors want lower costs, but service hiccups and staff turnover often lead to complaints, remediation efforts, and ultimately higher operating expenses.
The immediate risk lies in a policy surprise going the other way. Should the RBA keep rates steady on Feb. 3, or indicate it’s willing to let inflation run above target for longer, bank shares could see their gains evaporate fast.
Monday’s session will reveal how much of the rate hike chatter is baked into NAB’s share price. The next big event to watch is the RBA decision on Feb. 3, followed by NAB’s trading update on Feb. 18.
