SYDNEY, Jan 10, 2026, 17:16 AEDT — Market closed
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) shares ended 0.2% lower at A$41.02 on Friday, with ANZ down 0.6%, Westpac off 0.3% and Commonwealth Bank down 0.1% as financials weighed on the session. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 3 points at 8,717.80. Small Caps
That matters because the big banks trade like rate proxies. When traders pull forward or push out a move by the Reserve Bank of Australia, it can hit expectations for net interest margin — the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits and funding.
RBA officials have tried to keep the market from getting too relaxed. “Inflation above 3% — let’s be clear, it’s too high,” Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said, after data showed November’s annual inflation cooled but stayed above the central bank’s 2%-3% target band. Reuters
The inflation read itself has been messy. Data showed headline CPI slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in November, while the trimmed mean — a core measure that strips out big one-off moves — eased to 3.2%, and Reuters reported investors still saw a 33% risk of a February hike. Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia, called 3.2% “the magic number” for the trimmed mean in the late-January quarterly read. Reuters
The next test lands on Jan. 28, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to release December CPI, alongside updates to the quarterly CPI tables. That print will shape how hard traders lean into the February rates call. Australian Bureau of Statistics
For NAB, the next marker is its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18, with half-year results due May 4, according to the bank’s financial calendar. Investors typically use those updates to gauge loan growth, deposit pricing and costs, and whether bad-debt pressures are creeping in. NAB
Technically, NAB has slipped 2.77% so far in 2026 and sits just under its 50-day moving average of A$41.74. The stock is about 9% below its 52-week high of A$45.25 set on Nov. 6, 2025, and above the 52-week low of A$31.13. Intelligent Investor
But the new monthly inflation series can whip around, and banks can get hit from both sides: higher rates can lift margins but also strain borrowers. Any upside surprise in inflation, or a renewed fight for deposits, would make it harder for NAB to hold recent levels.
With the ASX shut over the weekend, attention turns to Monday’s reopen and whether bank sellers return early. The next hard dates are the RBA’s Feb. 2–3 meeting and NAB’s Feb. 18 trading update. rba.gov.au
