NEW YORK — The Nasdaq stock market finished Monday’s session on a soft note, with investors increasingly cautious heading into a data-heavy week that could reshape expectations for interest rates and the 2026 growth outlook. According to preliminary data, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.58% to 23,060.03, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.15% to 6,816.34 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.09% to 48,416.62. [1]
The late-day drift lower capped a choppy session that reflected a familiar 2025 tug-of-war: mega-cap tech and the AI trade still dominate headlines, but leadership is getting harder to find as investors demand proof that record spending on chips and data centers will translate into durable earnings power. That uncertainty is colliding with a rare complication—major U.S. economic releases arriving with gaps and distortions after the recent government shutdown. [2]
After-the-bell Nasdaq recap: What happened at the close
Monday’s market tone was shaped less by a single macro shock and more by a steady accumulation of cross-currents:
- Positioning for delayed U.S. jobs and inflation reports that could reset rate-cut expectations. [3]
- Ongoing nerves around the AI “payoff” timeline, after last week’s bruising moves in Oracle and Broadcom reignited debate over whether the AI buildout is being rewarded quickly enough. [4]
- Policy uncertainty tied to Federal Reserve leadership speculation and what it might mean for 2026 easing. [5]
In a market where the Nasdaq has been heavily influenced by a handful of mega-cap names, even modest weakness in large tech can tilt the index—especially when investors are actively reducing exposure ahead of key data.
The AI trade is still the Nasdaq’s engine—right now it’s also the Nasdaq’s risk
Wall Street entered the week still digesting a sharp mood shift from late last week. Reuters’ “Morning Bid” noted that the dominant AI theme looked “shakier,” after a one-two hit from Oracle and Broadcom dragged on sentiment and pulled down Nvidia on Friday. [6]
There were some stabilizing signals Monday. Reuters reported Nvidia “regained some ground” after it told Chinese clients it was evaluating adding capacity for its H200 AI chips, with demand running above current output, according to Reuters sources. [7]
But the broader message for the Nasdaq was clear: investors are no longer treating “AI exposure” as automatically bullish. Instead, they’re distinguishing between:
- companies enabling the infrastructure buildout (chips, cloud, data centers), and
- companies that can adopt AI to increase productivity and margins quickly enough to justify today’s valuations.
That distinction is becoming a major theme in both daily trading and longer-term forecasts. [8]
Big Nasdaq movers: iRobot, ServiceNow, Tesla and the cost of “story risk”
While index moves were relatively contained, several high-profile Nasdaq names drove outsized action:
iRobot collapses after bankruptcy filing
One of the day’s most dramatic Nasdaq-related headlines came from iRobot, which plunged after filing for bankruptcy protection—an event Reuters flagged as a key driver in single-stock volatility. [9]
Barron’s reported iRobot stock plunged about 72% following the filing. [10]
ServiceNow slides on deal talk
ServiceNow sank after a report that it is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity startup Armis, a move that would mark its largest acquisition and raised questions about price and strategic focus. [11]
Tesla jumps on robotaxi testing update
Tesla moved the other direction. Reuters noted the stock rose after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla was testing its robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat. [12]
That headline helped offset weakness elsewhere in tech and reinforced how quickly the Nasdaq can swing when investors chase (or punish) “future narrative” stocks.
Why this matters for Nasdaq traders
Days like Monday are a reminder that the Nasdaq isn’t just a macro index—it’s also an index of story risk. In late 2025, deal headlines, AI monetization concerns, and regulatory/policy uncertainty can move mega-caps and high-beta names fast enough to outweigh otherwise calm macro conditions.
The week’s biggest catalyst isn’t earnings—it’s the data “fog” from the shutdown
Investors have been waiting weeks for clarity on jobs and inflation after the government shutdown disrupted the normal U.S. data calendar. On Monday, Reuters detailed how the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release delayed employment and CPI reports for October and November, but with major limitations. [13]
Key points from Reuters’ breakdown:
- The October employment report was canceled, and establishment survey data will be merged into November’s report. [14]
- The household survey for October wasn’t conducted, creating the first gap in the unemployment data series since 1948—meaning several unemployment-related metrics for October will not exist. [15]
- The October CPI report was canceled, and the BLS can’t retroactively gather most missing price data; November CPI will be released but without certain comparisons where October is missing. [16]
This is more than a trivia note—it changes how the market trades the numbers. When investors suspect the data may be incomplete or distorted, they often:
- trade rates and mega-cap tech more cautiously, and
- respond more aggressively to surprises because uncertainty is already elevated.
That dynamic helps explain why Nasdaq leadership looked fragile even on a relatively modest down day.
What economists expect next
Reuters said economists forecast about 50,000 jobs added in November and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, though the shutdown-related quirks mean the report may not answer every question investors have about momentum in the labor market. [17]
Barron’s also pointed to expectations for roughly 50,000 jobs and CPI around 3.1% year over year. [18]
Rates, gold, and “FedWatch”: What other markets signaled about Nasdaq risk appetite
Cross-asset signals on Monday suggested investors were hedging rather than panicking.
Reuters reported gold pared gains but still finished higher, with U.S. gold futures settling up 0.2% at $4,335.20 and spot silver jumping, as markets awaited the U.S. jobs report and retail data. [19]
Notably, Reuters said markets were pricing a 78% chance of a rate cut in January 2026 (via CME FedWatch). [20]
For Nasdaq watchers, the message is straightforward:
- If the data points to meaningful labor-market weakness, rate-cut bets could increase—often supportive for long-duration growth stocks.
- If inflation proves sticky (or the “data fog” makes it hard to confirm cooling), the Nasdaq can be vulnerable to renewed valuation pressure.
Forecasts and 2026 outlook: Bulls stay bullish, but the focus is shifting
Even as the Nasdaq wrestles with near-term volatility, the major forecasting battle is already moving into 2026—especially around whether AI remains a tailwind and who benefits most.
Citi’s 2026 call: 7,700 on the S&P 500—and an “AI rotation” theme
Citi set a 2026 year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500, pointing to robust earnings and continued tailwinds from AI investment—but with an important twist: Citi expects the market’s focus to shift from AI enablers to AI adopters. [21]
Citi also warned that a high valuation starting point increases pressure on fundamentals and could mean more acute volatility as the bull market matures. [22]
This matters directly for Nasdaq investors because the Nasdaq’s performance has been disproportionately driven by the “enablers” category—mega-cap platforms, semis, and AI infrastructure.
A note of caution from market strategists
A MarketPulse analysis published Monday highlighted how post-Fed flows shifted sharply and argued that making a dovish case for 2026 is proving difficult, pointing to the Fed’s dot plot implying only 1–2 cuts next year and emphasizing that some policymakers see the central bank in a “comfortable position to wait.” [23]
In other words: forecasts may be optimistic, but the path could be bumpier—especially for the Nasdaq, where valuations are more sensitive to the rate outlook.
Nasdaq-100 changes: Index reshuffle adds another Nasdaq headline
Beyond the day-to-day trading, the Nasdaq also had structural news investors are watching closely: the annual shake-up of the Nasdaq-100, a benchmark that drives major ETF flows.
Reuters reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) remains in the Nasdaq-100, and that Nasdaq said several companies will be removed while others are added, with the changes expected to take effect December 22. [24]
Reuters listed removals including Biogen, CDW, GlobalFoundries, Lululemon, On Semiconductor, and Trade Desk, and new entrants including Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Ferrovial, Insmed, Monolithic Power Systems, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital. [25]
Separately, Reuters noted Ferrovial will become the first Spanish blue-chip IBEX 35-listed company to be added to the Nasdaq-100 when it joins on Dec. 22, roughly 18 months after its U.S. market debut. [26]
For investors, these changes can create short-term demand/supply effects because index funds must rebalance—even if the broader Nasdaq Composite doesn’t move solely because of it.
What to watch next: The catalysts that could move Nasdaq on Tuesday and beyond
With Monday’s close in the books, Nasdaq investors are staring at a stacked calendar:
- Tuesday (Dec. 16): delayed U.S. jobs data (with shutdown-related gaps), a key input into rate expectations. [27]
- Thursday: inflation data, with forecasts near 3.1% year over year, though comparability issues may complicate interpretation. [28]
- Earnings watchlist: Barron’s flagged upcoming reports this week from Nike, FedEx, and General Mills, while Reuters noted Micron is due to report later in the week—important for the AI/semiconductor narrative. [29]
- Ongoing Fed leadership speculation and any policy commentary that shifts the perceived path of cuts in early 2026. [30]
If there’s a single takeaway for “Nasdaq today,” it’s this: the index is still being pulled by AI optimism—but it’s now being judged by AI accountability. As 2025 heads into its final full week of trading, the market’s next move may hinge less on hype and more on hard data (even imperfect data) about growth, inflation, and the cost of capital.
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketpulse.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.tradingview.com
