NEW YORK, March 16, 2026, 1:31 PM EDT
- The Nasdaq outpaced other major U.S. indexes, boosted by gains in Meta and Nvidia. Every one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors was also trading higher.
- Oil retreated from last week’s surge; Brent remained over $100 a barrel, while traders trimmed their Fed rate-cut wagers.
- Goldman Sachs is cautioning that if oil prices spike violently, the S&P 500 might slide to roughly 5,400 this year.
Stocks in the U.S. climbed Monday, the Nasdaq out front as Meta Platforms and Nvidia shares pushed higher. A slip in oil prices eased a bit of pressure from last week’s selloff tied to the war. Still, traders kept a close eye on the Middle East situation and its potential fallout for inflation and growth.
Why does the bounce count at this point? Investors are weighing whether the megacap tech names can still prop up the broader market if rising fuel prices start squeezing consumer wallets and pressuring company margins. All this comes right ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, where rate-cut optimism has already faded.
Traders have now dialed back expectations to just 25 basis points of Fed rate cuts through 2026, LSEG data show. The timing for the next quarter-point cut has also shifted—no longer likely in July, but pushed out past October. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.
As of 11:45 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 485.19 points, or 1.04%, to reach 47,040.91. The S&P 500 rose 77.06 points, up 1.15%, landing at 6,708.70. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 316.56 points, or 1.43%, at 22,420.61. Tech shares led a broad advance across all 11 S&P 500 sectors. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge—slid to 23.72.
Meta shares climbed 2.6% after Reuters reported the Facebook owner is considering cutting its workforce by at least 20% to counterbalance steep AI costs. The stock hovered close to $625. Nvidia moved up by a comparable margin, trading near $185 in the afternoon as investors eyed CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at the GTC conference.
Meta’s approach came off as more aggressive. The tech giant has poured substantial resources into narrowing the gap with OpenAI, Anthropic and Google’s AI operations at Alphabet. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett estimated that trimming staff by 20% could shave roughly $6 billion from costs and bump up adjusted core earnings by 5%. “This doesn’t have to stop at 20%,” he said. Reuters
Oil prices took another hit. U.S. crude slid 5.19% to $93.60 per barrel after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that Washington was “fine” for now with limited ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent dropped 2.5%, settling at $100.56. Both contracts, however, are still sitting nearly 40% higher for March. Reuters
The drop gave a lift to fuel-reliant stocks like Delta Air Lines and Norwegian Cruise Line. Still, it left the bigger question hanging. Steve Edwards, senior investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, warned that if the conflict drags on and energy or chip shipments get squeezed, it could throw off AI-related capital spending.
Wall Street is betting the Fed holds rates steady on Wednesday, but the spotlight is shifting to what officials say about oil and inflation. James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones, called for caution, saying investors should take signals “with a pinch of salt”—oil prices could spike or tumble, and the Fed’s stance could flip fast. Reuters
There’s also the risks on the table. On Monday, Goldman Sachs warned that if oil supplies take a significant hit, the S&P 500 could slump to around 5,400 this year—about 19% below Friday’s 6,632.19 finish. The bank is still holding on to its 7,600 year-end call, citing the ongoing AI investment surge as a likely buffer for any less severe slowdown.
U.S. stocks are outperforming a number of overseas markets for now. According to Reuters, battered tech names have staged a comeback, and the U.S.’s net oil exporter position has given Wall Street some insulation across three turbulent weeks. Investors are dealing with the fallout from war, higher crude prices, and a Fed meeting that’s looking increasingly unpredictable.
