NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 7:51 a.m. ET — Market closed
Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq complex is heading into the final trading days of 2025 with a familiar late-December cocktail: light volumes, big year-to-date gains, and a market that seems calm—right up until it isn’t.
The Nasdaq Composite finished the most recent session (Friday) down 20.21 points, or 0.1%, at 23,593.10, in a quiet post-Christmas trade that also saw the S&P 500 and Dow drift slightly lower. Market participation was thin, with New York Stock Exchange volume running roughly half a typical day as many large institutional players have largely wrapped up for the year. [1]
For Nasdaq-100 watchers (and the QQQ crowd), the large-cap benchmark ended Friday at 25,644.39, down 0.05%. [2]
With U.S. stock markets closed today (Sunday), there’s no cash-session price discovery—just a growing list of catalysts investors are lining up for Monday’s reopen and a holiday-shortened week that could amplify moves in either direction.
A “quiet” Nasdaq finish—still near the highs
Friday’s small dip didn’t change the broader picture: U.S. indexes remain close to record territory after a strong year, and traders are watching whether late-year strength holds into the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January, by the common market definition). [3]
Strategists say the next few sessions can be deceptively important—not because fundamentals suddenly change in late December, but because thin liquidity can make even routine headlines hit harder than usual.
Reuters’ week-ahead preview captured the mood succinctly, quoting Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management: “Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls,” while also warning that surprises can still disrupt the trend. [4]
What’s been driving the Nasdaq tone into year-end
Several forces are shaping Nasdaq sentiment as the calendar flips:
1) Rate-cut expectations remain a dominant narrative.
Markets are increasingly focused on when—and how aggressively—the Federal Reserve could cut rates further in 2026. Reuters reported the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, bringing it to 3.50%–3.75%, and noted the December decision was divided—keeping investors hungry for more detail in the minutes. [5]
2) Rotation is the plot twist investors can’t stop re-reading.
The Nasdaq’s mega-cap tech leadership has been powerful in 2025, but Reuters highlighted a recent shift: non-tech areas have shown more relative strength while the S&P 500 tech sector has struggled in recent weeks (down more than 3% since the start of November, per Reuters). [6]
That rotation matters for Nasdaq because the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq Composite are still heavily influenced by the biggest growth and tech names—even when the broader market is “diversifying its winners.”
3) Economic resilience is still supporting risk appetite.
A Nasdaq.com market recap (by Barchart’s Rich Asplund) pointed to upside surprises in economic data earlier in the week—specifically citing Q3 real GDP rising 4.3% (annualized)—as a sentiment tailwind. The same recap noted the S&P 500 ended the week up 1.4% while the Nasdaq-100 gained 1.2% despite Friday’s fade. [7]
The next big macro catalyst: Fed minutes (and the holiday-week data stack)
The calendar matters more than usual when the tape is thin.
Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting are due Tuesday, with investors hoping for clarity on how policymakers weighed inflation, growth, and the path of rates. Reuters quoted Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, saying the minutes may be “illuminating” as markets try to handicap the 2026 rate path. [8]
Investopedia’s week-ahead outlook also flags a compact but market-relevant slate of U.S. data releases:
- Monday, Dec. 29: Pending home sales (November)
- Tuesday, Dec. 30: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October), Chicago Business Barometer (December), December FOMC meeting minutes
- Wednesday, Dec. 31: Initial jobless claims (week ending Dec. 27); U.S. bond markets close early at 2 p.m. ET
- Thursday, Jan. 1: New Year’s Day holiday
- Friday, Jan. 2: First session of 2026 (no major releases scheduled in Investopedia’s calendar) [9]
For Nasdaq investors, the key is that these releases can reshape rate expectations quickly—especially if jobless claims or housing indicators surprise—because growth-stock valuations are typically more sensitive to shifts in yields and the expected policy path.
Futures: the first “real” Nasdaq signal returns Sunday evening
While the Nasdaq stock market itself is closed today, U.S. equity index futures are scheduled to resume trading Sunday evening. CME Group lists E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures trading hours on Globex as Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET through Friday 5:00 p.m. ET (with a daily maintenance window). [10]
That reopening matters because the first meaningful read on sentiment—especially after weekend headlines—often shows up in index futures before the opening bell on Monday.
Nasdaq-linked headlines in the last 24–48 hours investors are watching
Even in a quiet holiday stretch, Nasdaq-heavy megacaps and AI-linked names continue to feed the narrative:
- Amazon: Reuters reported Sunday that Amazon has decided not to pursue plans for drone delivery in Italy, citing broader business regulatory issues in the country despite progress with aerospace regulators. Amazon had previously announced initial tests in Italy. [11]
For Nasdaq indexes, Amazon is influential not just as a mega-cap consumer and cloud player, but as a sentiment proxy for “innovation investment” more broadly. - AI/semiconductor optimism remains a pillar—despite valuation debates: In the post-Christmas session, Reuters noted Nvidia rose after news tied to licensing chip technology from Groq, while broader markets stayed near record levels. [12]
The broader point for Nasdaq investors: AI is still a tailwind, but the market is increasingly discriminating—rewarding perceived productivity wins while questioning spending intensity and valuation.
What investors should know before Monday’s Nasdaq session
When markets reopen on Monday, Dec. 29, investors may want to treat the tape like it’s wearing ice skates: it can glide smoothly—until it suddenly doesn’t.
Here are the practical issues that matter most going into the next session:
Expect liquidity-driven weirdness.
Both AP and Reuters described Friday’s trade as unusually light, which can persist into year-end as many institutions reduce activity. Thin volumes can exaggerate intraday swings and make breakouts (or breakdowns) less reliable than they appear on a chart. [13]
Watch the rates narrative, not just the index level.
For the Nasdaq, the direction of yields and the market’s confidence in the Fed’s 2026 path can matter as much as earnings headlines. The Fed minutes on Tuesday are the week’s centerpiece for that reason, with strategists emphasizing that markets remain fixated on the number and timing of cuts. [14]
Rotation risk (and opportunity) is real.
If leadership continues broadening beyond mega-cap tech, the Nasdaq can still rise—but may lag days when financials, industrials, or other cyclicals lead. Reuters’ reporting suggests investors are actively monitoring that shift as they position for 2026. [15]
Respect the holiday calendar.
This is a holiday-shortened week with New Year’s Day on Thursday and an early bond-market close Wednesday. Those schedule quirks can compress risk into fewer trading hours and make hedging/positioning more reactive. [16]
Use Sunday night futures carefully.
Futures can provide an early signal, but Sunday evening trading can be thinner than normal. Treat big moves as “information,” not a verdict—especially if the move is driven by a narrow headline rather than broad macro repricing. [17]
The bottom line for Nasdaq investors right now
The Nasdaq is entering the final stretch of 2025 with strong momentum, but the next moves are likely to be shaped less by a single earnings story and more by policy expectations (Fed minutes), rotation dynamics, and year-end positioning. The market may look sleepy on the surface—yet the combination of thin liquidity and macro sensitivity means it can still deliver sharp, surprising bursts of volatility.
For investors, the smartest stance heading into Monday isn’t “bullish” or “bearish.” It’s prepared: know what can move the Nasdaq, know when it hits the tape this week, and assume that late-December price action can be louder than the news that caused it. [18]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.cmegroup.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. apnews.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.cmegroup.com, 18. www.reuters.com
