New York, January 23, 2026, 10:18 EST — Regular session
U.S. natural gas prices surged again Friday, with February Henry Hub futures climbing 31.1 cents, or roughly 6.2%, to $5.356 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF linked to near-term gas futures, gained around 3.6% in early trading. (CME Group)
The shift is critical now, with a late-January cold snap looming that could boost heating demand while tightening supply. Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Samantha Dart, argued the recent price surge has “overshot” near-term fundamentals. They cited weather risks, possible production outages, and short-covering after a rapid climb. (MarketWatch)
Government forecasters are flagging a severe cold snap. The Energy Information Administration pointed to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration alert on Thursday, forecasting an Arctic front that will plunge temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this weekend. (EIA)
Shares tied to gas prices climbed alongside the commodity. EQT Corp jumped around 2.2%, Antero Resources added about 1.3%, and LNG exporter Cheniere Energy edged up roughly 0.8%.
Storage is holding steady — at least for now. The EIA reported that working gas in storage was 3,065 billion cubic feet (bcf) as of Jan. 16, following a 120 bcf withdrawal last week. Inventories remain 177 bcf above the five-year average. (EIA Information Releases)
Traders are shifting their attention from current inventory levels to the pace at which they might drop if the cold snap continues. The withdrawal on Jan. 16 exceeded expectations, coming in above the forecast of roughly 90 bcf. The EIA noted that the five-year average withdrawal for that week stands at 191 bcf. (Investing)
No sooner than the weekend ends, attention turns to the next forecast window. On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its 6-10 day outlook, spanning Jan. 28 to Feb. 1. This period will be crucial in setting the tone for the upcoming storage draw. (Climate Prediction Center)
Some desks are now bracing for a much larger pull. Mizuho’s Bob Yawger noted that market talk has shifted toward the risk of a “monster” withdrawal if the severe cold persists and production falters. (MarketWatch)
The rally’s rapid pace has grabbed attention. Bloomberg reported that U.S. natural gas futures jumped roughly 75% over three days, reaching their highest levels since 2022 as traders rushed to adjust for weather-related risks. (Bloomberg)
Forecasts can flip fast, and natural gas often sells off as sharply as it jumps. A milder shift in model runs, fewer freeze-offs—when cold and ice curb well output—or profit-taking after this week’s surge could drag prices down, especially since inventories remain above seasonal averages.
Data comes next. Traders are eyeing the weekly EIA storage report set for 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, Jan. 29. Early-week weather updates will also be crucial to see if this cold snap holds up. (EIA Information Releases)
