New York, Feb 9, 2026, 17:03 EST — Trading after the bell.
U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 8% on Monday, closing at about $3.141 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)—their lowest mark in three weeks—as traders responded to forecasts for milder weather across the country that could slash heating needs. Commodity Weather Group is now calling for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and South through Feb. 20, a forecast that tends to take the edge off winter demand in a hurry. 1
The decline is drawing attention as traders weigh the fallout from January’s severe cold. That freeze dented storage levels. Now, with temperatures turning milder and production holding steady, the market is left to decide if inventories can recover ahead of the shoulder season.
Supply remains the headline figure. LSEG has pegged average Lower 48 output at 106.9 bcfd for February to date, up from 106.3 bcfd last month. On the demand side, including exports, LSEG projects a drop from 159.5 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week, then down again to 132.6 bcfd in two weeks. The Arctic blast that hit in the week ending Jan. 30 saw a record 360 bcf withdrawn from storage, but analysts caution that milder temperatures could wipe out much of that storage deficit over the coming month. LSEG’s numbers also put flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export terminals at 18.5 bcfd so far in February. 2
Expand Energy shares dropped 6.4% to $103.24 after hours. The biggest independent U.S. gas producer is losing CEO Domenic Dell’Osso, with chairman Michael Wichterich stepping in as interim chief. Expand is also shifting its headquarters from Oklahoma City to Houston. Dell’Osso will take on an external adviser role during the handover. “This reaction relates to market uncertainty over the changes, especially since EXE has yet to announce the permanent CFO replacement,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold. 3
Peers diverged. EQT shed 1.2%, while Antero Resources edged down 0.4%. LNG exporter Cheniere Energy, though, managed a 1.2% gain as the market balanced softer U.S. prices with firm export appetite.
Natural gas prices are chopping around like it’s all about the weather again—sharp moves one day, sometimes evaporating the next. For producers and LNG stocks, forecasts are back in the driver’s seat, outmuscling quarterly numbers for now.
The downside isn’t straightforward. If late winter turns out colder than expected, forecasts can swing fast. Production could drop if freeze-offs hit, or if there’s trouble at major infrastructure. That tightens the balance quickly, with LNG exports already drawing from supply.
Traders have their eye on the latest weather models, plus Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report (Feb. 12) for any new signals about withdrawals. Over in equities, attention is on what Expand Energy plans to do about naming a permanent CFO, along with more specifics on the Houston relocation.
