NEW YORK, Feb 9, 2026, 10:49 (EST) — Regular session
- U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 6% in morning trade, pushing the benchmark back toward $3 per mmBtu.
- Traders are re-pricing late-February heating demand after forecasts turned milder across much of the Lower 48.
- U.S. gas producers traded lower, with attention shifting to Thursday’s storage report and fresh weather model runs.
U.S. natural gas prices fell sharply on Monday as warmer forecasts chipped away at near-term heating demand. The March contract was down about 22 cents at around $3.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), Barchart data showed.
The slide matters now because the market has been trading off weather tweaks and storage math, not much else. A warmer back half of February would ease the call on inventories after a winter draw that briefly tightened the story.
Gas-linked equities tracked the move, but not in lockstep. Investors are trying to work out whether the latest drop is just a weather reset or a fresh reminder that U.S. supply stays heavy.
On Friday, the March contract settled at $3.422 and ended the week down about 21% after dropping 17% the week before. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a record 360 billion cubic feet (bcf) pulled from storage in the week ended Jan. 30, and analysts have said mild weather could wipe out much of that deficit over the next month. LSEG said output in the Lower 48 states (the contiguous U.S., excluding Alaska and Hawaii) averaged 106.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) so far in February, and projected demand — including exports — falling from 159.5 bcf/d this week to 141.4 bcf/d next week and 132.6 bcf/d in two weeks. It also pegged flows to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants at about 18.5 bcf/d so far this month.
Storage is the hinge for this market. Utilities typically inject gas in summer and pull it out in winter; a warmer stretch means less burn for heat and, often, less urgency to bid up futures.
Among gas-heavy producers, EQT Corp fell about 1.2% in morning trade. Antero Resources and Range Resources slipped about 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, while Coterra Energy, which has a larger oil mix than some peers, edged higher.
But the downside is not clean. If forecasts swing back colder, or if output stumbles, balances can tighten quickly — especially with LNG feedgas flows still running near recent highs.
For now, traders are watching daily output estimates, LNG feedgas volumes and whether futures can hold above the $3 mark, a level that has drawn buying during recent selloffs.
Next up is the EIA’s weekly natural gas storage report on Thursday, Feb. 12, plus the next round of two-week temperature outlooks that will steer demand expectations into late February.
