NEW YORK, Feb 10, 2026, 06:15 (EST) — Premarket
- U.S. natural gas futures slipped in early action, following Monday’s steep drop that traders blamed on forecasts calling for milder weather later in February.
- Output and LNG export flows keep moving the needle. Traders are recalculating how much gas utilities actually need for heating.
- The U.S. storage numbers land Thursday, offering a crucial gauge of just how quickly winter demand is slipping—if the models are right.
U.S. natural gas futures slipped again Tuesday morning, following up on losses from the previous session as warmer weather projections pressured prices. By 6:15 a.m. EST, the March contract had fallen 2.3 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.115 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). 1
The pullback is grabbing attention as traders scramble to factor in the remainder of winter. January’s swings set the stage—now, upcoming weather-model updates and storage numbers will drive the outlook for heating demand and the pace of inventory changes.
March futures tumbled over 8% in early action Monday, giving up the previous session’s gains as forecasts turned milder for the rest of the month, Reuters reported. Meteorologists now expect above-normal temperatures across the U.S. through Feb. 23, driving heating degree days (HDDs) down from 374 to 358. LSEG kept Lower 48 natural gas output at 106.99 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, and sees total demand—including exports—shrinking from 142.5 bcfd this week to 130 bcfd next week. Feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, edged up to 18.3 bcfd. 2
The storage overhang from the last major benchmark surprise hasn’t faded just yet. As of Jan. 30, working gas inventories in the Lower 48 clocked in at 2,463 billion cubic feet (bcf). Traders now look to the next official tally, due out Feb. 12 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern—as always, that’s a Thursday. 3
LNG links the global market back to U.S. gas flows. Chinese LNG imports should see a mild bump in 2026 as increased supply drags prices lower. Still, analysts warn that demand could remain tied to price, facing stiff competition from cheaper pipeline and domestic gas. That could limit any big gains for spot LNG—and U.S. exports along with it. “Even if prices fall in 2026, LNG still can’t compete with domestic or imported pipeline gas,” said Xiong Wei at Rystad. Yuanda Wang at ICIS echoed a note of caution, adding that “how much extra demand a lower price can stir remains debatable.” 4
Cash prices can bolt when a cold snap rolls in, as the market knows all too well. Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan told Reuters the firm kept around 30% of its U.S. onshore gas linked to spot pricing during January’s chill, selling some flows into New York for “more than $100 per MMBtu.” Benchmark prices eventually eased off. 5
Bulls face a clear risk here: should the warmer pattern persist, late-winter demand eases off, and production doesn’t budge, the market could end up drawing less from storage and pushing prices down. Add to that the possibility of LNG feedgas flows stumbling, or the shoulder season kicking in ahead of schedule, and downside pressure only builds.
Weather risk is the wild card here. A burst of cold hitting key cities could quickly drive HDDs up. Freeze-offs remain a threat to production, which could squeeze supply right when export demand holds steady.
Traders are glued to daily output projections and LNG feedgas numbers this week, but the date circled on calendars is Feb. 12 for the U.S. storage report, followed by another set of late-February forecast updates.
