Updated: 26.12.2025 | 10:14 a.m. EST
U.S. natural gas is ending the week with a familiar winter push-and-pull: colder early‑January forecasts and strong LNG demand on one side, near‑record production and still‑healthy storage on the other.
In holiday-thinned trade on Friday morning, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas (January 2026) hovered around the mid‑$4.30s per MMBtu, extending a rebound that traders are tying to colder model runs and steady export pulls. Barchart showed NGF26 near $4.342/MMBtu mid‑morning, while market reporting also pegged the contract around $4.29/MMBtu earlier in the session. [1]
Below is what’s moving natural gas today (26.12.2025) across news, forecasts, and market analysis, including the next big catalysts traders are watching into year-end.
Natural gas price today: where Henry Hub is trading and why volume matters
With many participants out for the holidays, liquidity is thinner than usual—and that can exaggerate moves in either direction.
- NYMEX Jan ’26 (NGF26) was quoted around $4.342/MMBtu in mid‑morning pricing (up on the session). [2]
- Separate market reporting described thin-volume trading and highlighted the contract near $4.29/MMBtu, also pointing to a weekly gain after a recent slide. [3]
This is also a notable moment on the calendar: Barchart lists expiration timing for NGF26 approaching at the end of December, which tends to accelerate position‑rolling and can add noise to day-to-day price action. [4]
Bottom line: Friday’s tape is being shaped not only by fundamentals, but also by holiday liquidity and the late‑month contract transition—a mix that often increases volatility.
Weather forecast: the “colder shift” that bulls are betting on
The central driver in U.S. winter gas is still the same metric traders watch every day: heating demand.
Market reporting on Friday tied the bounce to forecasts pointing to colder conditions and higher demand into early January, particularly across the eastern half of the U.S. [5]
One way to translate that into market language is with Heating Degree Days (HDDs), a key proxy for heating demand:
- Forecasts cited in Friday market coverage showed HDDs rising from 377 to 398, while still below the normal level of 449—suggesting a trend toward more heating demand, but not yet a “deep-freeze” setup. [6]
This nuance matters. Natural gas can rally sharply on model runs that “turn colder,” but if temperatures remain below-normal vs. normal on the HDD scale, upside can be capped—especially with production running hot.
Supply stays heavy: near-record Lower 48 production keeps pressure on the upside
If weather is the spark, production is the wet blanket.
Friday’s reporting cited Lower 48 output at a record-high pace in December, around 109.8 bcfd, topping November’s record. [7] That level of supply matters because it reduces how quickly cold weather can tighten the market—unless demand spikes hard.
EIA’s latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook (released December 9) also frames the same story for 2026: rising production is expected to help moderate prices after winter, with U.S. dry gas output forecast around 109 Bcf/d in 2026. [8]
Translation: Even if early January turns colder, the market’s immediate question becomes: Is it cold enough to overwhelm record supply and strong LNG pulls?
LNG exports: feedgas demand remains a key bull argument
LNG is a structural pillar under U.S. natural gas demand—and it has been especially important this year.
Friday market reporting said gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants averaged about 18.4 bcfd so far this month, near record territory. [9]
There’s also a plant‑specific note that traders watch because it can swing feedgas quickly:
- Freeport LNG confirmed that all three liquefaction trains at its Texas facility had resumed operations after a temporary disruption. [10]
From a macro perspective, EIA’s December STEO points to LNG exports staying elevated longer-term, projecting U.S. LNG exports at 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026. [11]
And while U.S. LNG remains globally significant, Reuters data-driven analysis notes that Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. fell in 2025 versus 2024, highlighting how trade policy and shifting demand patterns can influence where U.S. cargoes ultimately land. [12]
Storage and the next big catalyst: EIA’s delayed report is due Monday (Dec 29)
For U.S. natural gas, weekly storage is the scoreboard—and the schedule matters this week.
The release date change
EIA’s official schedule shows the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report was shifted to Monday, December 29, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET due to the Christmas holiday, with another holiday adjustment set for Wednesday, December 31 at 12:00 p.m. ET. [13]
Barchart also referenced the same holiday shift, underscoring how widely traders are focused on the Monday release. [14]
Where storage stands in the latest EIA weekly update
EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update (release date December 18, covering the week ending December 17) reported:
- Net withdrawals of 167 Bcf for the week ending December 12
- Working gas in storage: 3,579 Bcf
- Storage 1% above the five-year average and 2% below last year at that point [15]
EIA’s winter draw outlook (forecast)
In the December STEO, EIA outlined why its winter price forecast moved higher: it assumed December would be colder than previously modeled and projected heavier withdrawals—expecting 580 Bcf of inventory withdrawals in December, notably above the five‑year average for the month. [16]
Why this matters for Monday: If the next storage figure shows a draw that surprises to the upside (bigger withdrawal), it can validate the “colder + tight balance” narrative. A softer draw would strengthen the argument that record production and comfortable inventories can absorb winter demand.
Rig count: drilling signals remain mixed, and it’s not just about “more rigs”
Supply isn’t only a function of the weather—it’s also a function of how aggressively producers drill.
The most recent Baker Hughes data (reported by Reuters) showed:
- Total U.S. rigs: 545
- Oil rigs: 409
- Gas rigs: 127 [17]
That headline number alone doesn’t guarantee higher output (productivity and associated gas matter), but it supports the broader theme seen across multiple sources: the U.S. system has been producing at exceptionally high levels—even as the market tries to price winter risk.
EIA’s STEO also noted that updated assumptions about gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), especially in the Permian, contributed to a higher production outlook. [18]
Global gas snapshot: Asia LNG is cheap, Europe is watching Q1 flows
U.S. natural gas is increasingly tied to global gas pricing—because global prices help determine how “sticky” U.S. LNG demand will be.
Asia spot LNG (JKM-linked) and China demand
A Reuters global LNG market update (published Dec 24) put February-delivery LNG into Northeast Asia around $9.60/mmBtu, slightly higher on the week—but still reflecting a generally soft market, with prices down significantly year-to-date. [19]
That same reporting highlighted:
- Stronger buying interest in South Korea tied to colder weather
- Weaker spot buying in China, contributing to the broader softness [20]
Europe: storage drawdown and early Q1 buying interest
Europe remains the “balancing market” when LNG is abundant. An Investing.com market analysis (published Dec 25) cited Europe’s gas storage level around 66.1% as of Dec 24, below average and below last year. [21]
Meanwhile, the Reuters LNG market update noted that European gas prices ticked up in thin trade on cold-spell forecasts, and also described firm buying interest into early Q1 2026 in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, tied to concerns about pipeline flows and regional supply needs. [22]
Geopolitics and supply: Russia’s LNG delays and the pipeline pivot to China
Two Russia-linked developments are shaping longer-term supply expectations:
- Russia delays LNG expansion targets:
Reuters reported that Russia has pushed back by several years its plan to reach 100 million tons per year of LNG output, citing the impact of Western sanctions. [23] - Pipeline gas to China hits record levels:
Reuters also reported that Gazprom supplied 38.8 bcm of gas to China via Power of Siberia in 2025, exceeding its contractual target. [24]
These shifts don’t directly set Henry Hub on any given day, but they do influence global LNG supply/demand expectations—which can feed back into U.S. LNG economics and, ultimately, U.S. gas balances.
The bigger-picture debate: is the LNG buildout running ahead of demand?
A widely read Reuters Breakingviews column published today adds a longer-horizon angle: as major producers plan aggressive LNG capacity growth into 2030, the rapid cost declines and fast deployment of renewables (plus grid storage) could undercut future LNG demand growth—raising the risk of an oversupply cycle later in the decade. [25]
That matters even for today’s market because long-dated gas pricing and LNG contracting influence investment decisions, forward curves, and producer behavior—all of which shape how tight (or loose) the market can become in future winters.
What to watch next for natural gas prices
Here are the near-term catalysts most likely to move U.S. natural gas into year-end:
- EIA storage report (holiday schedule): Monday Dec 29, 12:00 p.m. ET. [26]
- Early-January weather model runs: Watch whether the “colder eastern half” forecast persists and whether HDDs trend closer to (or above) normal. [27]
- LNG feedgas stability: Any operational disruptions (or ramp-ups) at major export plants—especially after Freeport’s return—can shift balances quickly. [28]
- Production and pipeline constraints: With output near records, the market is sensitive to any freeze-offs, maintenance, or regional bottlenecks. [29]
- Global LNG pricing and Europe’s storage trajectory: Soft Asia pricing and Europe’s winter drawdown keep the Atlantic Basin tug-of-war alive. [30]
Where forecasts stand right now
EIA’s December STEO provides the clearest “official” baseline:
- Henry Hub spot price forecast: around $4.30/MMBtu on average this winter (Nov–Mar), then moderating to about $4.00/MMBtu next year. [31]
- EIA also noted it raised the winter price forecast versus last month due to colder early-December assumptions and stronger space-heating demand. [32]
That forecast lines up with what Friday’s market is pricing in: winter risk still matters, but the ceiling is debated because supply is robust and the system entered winter with above-average inventories. [33]
The takeaway (as of 10:14 a.m. EST, 26.12.2025)
Natural gas is trading like a winter market again—weather-led, headline-sensitive, and increasingly tied to LNG flows. The next test is whether the colder outlook translates into a storage draw strong enough to overcome the market’s most stubborn counterweight: record U.S. production. [34]
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.worldenergynews.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.worldenergynews.com, 7. www.worldenergynews.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.worldenergynews.com, 10. www.worldenergynews.com, 11. www.eia.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.eia.gov, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.eia.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.eia.gov, 19. www.brecorder.com, 20. www.brecorder.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.brecorder.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. ir.eia.gov, 27. www.worldenergynews.com, 28. www.worldenergynews.com, 29. www.worldenergynews.com, 30. www.brecorder.com, 31. www.eia.gov, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. www.eia.gov, 34. www.worldenergynews.com
