New York, January 26, 2026, 11:26 (EST) — Regular session
- NYMEX February natural gas futures jumped roughly 17%, hitting around $6.20/mmBtu.
- Freeze-offs dropped Lower 48 output to its lowest point in two years on Sunday, LSEG data shows.
- Traders are eyeing cold weather forecasts, LNG feedgas flows, and the February contract’s expiry.
U.S. natural gas futures jumped past $6 on Monday after an Arctic blast forced production shutdowns, squeezing near-term supply.
The surge is spreading to natural gas-linked ETFs and stocks, even as traders prepare for a volatile week ahead at the front end of the curve.
Timing is everything. Winter demand is at its peak, and the cold snap is gripping major producing states just as pipelines and power grids in the East face pressure.
What happens abroad counts too. The U.S. leads global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, so any hit to its supply or exports sends shockwaves through Europe and Asia.
Front-month NYMEX February gas hovered near $6.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), gaining roughly 92 cents on the day. March contracts, by comparison, changed hands around $3.71, underscoring that the price pressure is heavily focused on prompt delivery.
LSEG data showed Lower 48 output dropped to a two-year low of 92.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Sunday before climbing back to around 95.5 bcfd on Monday. The February contract surged 89% in just five sessions, hitting a record gain, as freeze-offs — when water and other liquids freeze in the gas stream and block flow — slashed production.
The storm is squeezing the power market hard. On Sunday, PJM Interconnection reported nearly 21 gigawatts of generation outages and issued a pre-emergency order to reduce demand. At the same time, pipeline constraints tightened supplies into the Eastern seaboard. “Without native supplies of natural gas, the Eastern seaboard relies on a pipeline network that is historically constricted during extended bouts of frigid weather,” said Pieter Mul, an associate partner at PA Consulting. Reuters
U.S. gas consumption is set to climb to 156 bcfd this week, driven by cold weather—well above the five-year January average of 137 bcfd, per LSEG forecasts. Across the Atlantic, Dutch TTF gas prices jumped over 6% last week, nearing 40 euros per megawatt hour, or roughly $13.75/mmBtu. Regional gas stocks hover around 48% capacity. “The global gas market has become far more interconnected,” noted Mashal Jaffery, partner at Baringa, a gas and LNG advisory firm. Reuters
ING noted Henry Hub climbed above $6 amid the winter storm, referencing BloombergNEF data showing U.S. gas output dropped by over 11 bcfd in the past five days. They also highlighted heavy short positions fueling the jump—a short squeeze occurs when traders betting on a price drop scramble to cover their contracts—despite U.S. storage levels remaining “very comfortable” before the freeze. ING THINK
Yet the rally hinges on upcoming weather forecasts. A shift to warmer conditions, quicker well recoveries, or weaker industrial demand could swiftly erode the front-month premium.
Gas-linked stocks showed mixed results in New York. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed roughly 4%, while EQT, a producer, held steady. Antero Resources rose around 1%, but LNG exporter Cheniere Energy dipped about 0.6%.
Traders remain focused on whether freeze-offs continue in Texas and Louisiana and if LNG feedgas volumes keep lagging. Eyes now turn to the February contract’s expiry on Wednesday (Jan. 28), followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report on Thursday (Jan. 29).
