NEW YORK, March 12, 2026, 13:58 (EDT)
U.S. natural gas futures stuck close to a four-week peak on Thursday, propped up after the latest storage numbers landed and traders kept a wary eye on war-related disruptions hitting LNG flows at the Strait of Hormuz. The front-month Henry Hub contract—the most active—hovered near $3.21 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early U.S. action, notching a roughly 0.5% bump after the data hit.
U.S. gas prices have been steady, even as overseas markets react. The Dutch TTF, Europe’s front-month benchmark, jumped roughly 60% after the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and the surge in shipping attacks near Hormuz. North Asia’s spot LNG soared as well, reaching $22.50 per mmBtu for the week ending March 6—more than twice the previous week’s level, according to Reuters.
The gap’s significant for utilities, producers, and exporters alike. The U.S. stands out as a top gas producer and a heavyweight LNG exporter, so higher prices abroad tend to support Henry Hub. Still, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said this week that domestic gas prices are likely to stay relatively insulated from reduced LNG flows via Hormuz, projecting an average of around $3.80 per mmBtu in 2026.
The EIA reported a draw of 38 Bcf from working gas storage for the week ended March 6, bringing total inventories to 1,848 Bcf. That’s 141 Bcf higher than this time last year, but 17 Bcf under the five-year average—numbers that traders read as a wash, keeping futures steady after the data hit.
Europe’s refill headache has returned. Gas storage sites sit at roughly 27% capacity—the weakest seasonal level since 2022. Brussels, now facing pressure, is weighing whether to ease up on upcoming import authorisation rules. Officials have warned that sticking to strict checks could hold up arrivals exactly when the bloc needs to bulk up reserves.
The shift is playing out at sea: tankers originally headed for Europe have veered toward Asia. ICIS senior analyst Yuanda Wang noted that U.S. LNG delivered into China would “still remain above $10” per mmBtu, tariffs or not. Reuters
Asian buyers are shelling out serious cash, not just marking up futures. Bangladesh picked up three spot LNG cargoes, paying $20.76 to $28.28 per mmBtu—prices that were around $10 back in January, tender results showed Thursday.
The supply picture isn’t loosening up, either. Equinor—the top gas supplier in Europe—reported it’s running with no extra oil and gas capacity. Chief Executive Anders Opedal emphasized that staying “a reliable provider of oil and gas” is the priority, with output pushed as high as they can manage. Reuters
Germany’s RWE echoed that sentiment. Chief Executive Markus Krebber said “discussions with ADNOC are of course continuing,” though progress has lagged as Gulf counterparts focus on the crisis. Reuters
TotalEnergies reported a 15% drop in oil and gas production following shutdowns across the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iraq. The company flagged that supply disruptions extend beyond just shipping problems.
Still, the U.S. contract is running on a different track compared to markets in Europe and Asia. Reuters calculations indicate that Europe’s gas-fired power output has dropped about a third so far in March, hit by expensive prices and unseasonably mild weather tamping down demand. The EIA pointed out that a warmer February has left U.S. gas storage levels higher than expected. If the spring stays mild and production continues climbing, Henry Hub could have trouble hanging onto its recent gains.
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