NEW YORK, March 27, 2026, 14:59 EDT
Natural gas futures in the U.S. stuck close to $3 per mmBtu on Friday, with the benchmark Henry Hub contract trading just above $2.90 after the open. A sharper storage draw than analysts had forecast supported prices, keeping the contract more or less anchored at that level. CME Group
This is notable since U.S. gas prices haven’t kept pace with the global surge. Over in Europe, the Dutch TTF hub saw prices close to $17 per mmBtu this week, while Asia’s JKM sat near $21. That gap keeps the export arbitrage window wide open, even though Henry Hub hangs around $3. Reuters
Working gas stocks in U.S. storage dropped by 54 billion cubic feet for the week ending March 20, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Inventories now stand at 1,829 bcf. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a 44-bcf decline. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Export demand is picking up from the Gulf Coast again. Cheniere reported that its Corpus Christi facility in Texas has Train 5 running at full tilt, putting out just shy of 1.5 million metric tons per year. LNG—short for liquefied natural gas—is natural gas cooled into a liquid to make shipping possible. On Friday, feedgas flows into Corpus Christi climbed close to 2.5 bcf. Reuters
Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco said this week that Asian demand for U.S. cargoes is picking up. “We are trying to do whatever we can do,” Fusco said, but stressed the company won’t compromise on safety or reliability just to boost shipments. Reuters
This isn’t just hitting one exporter. Reuters says Qatar risks losing 33 million metric tons of LNG exports this year. Freeport LNG boss Michael Smith pointed out that the same turmoil could push up steel and equipment costs, slowing new U.S. projects. Shell’s Cedric Cremers added, “These geopolitical shocks…send the wrong signals to customers” about the reliability of gas supply. Reuters
But there’s no real shortage in the U.S. gas market. Baker Hughes reported gas rigs dropped by four to 127 this week, marking the lowest count since late January. Even so, the EIA projects U.S. gas output will reach 109.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. Producers in the Dallas Fed’s latest energy survey pegged Henry Hub at $3.60 per mmBtu by year-end. Reuters
Weather stands out as the biggest threat here. Reuters noted this week that above-normal temperatures are likely to persist until April 8, which could leave heating demand muted and make last week’s draw one of the last significant pullbacks this season. Should that trend continue, even robust exports might not lift the still amply supplied U.S. market much past $3. Sahm
