NEW YORK, Feb 6, 2026, 17:08 EST — The bell’s done, but trading rolls on after hours.
- March U.S. natural gas futures slipped by the close, giving up earlier advances.
- Sentiment took a hit as forecasts turned warmer and the gas rig count moved higher.
- Traders now look ahead to the Feb. 12 storage report, plus late-winter weather models are in play.
Natural gas prices in the U.S. slipped Friday. The March contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently off 9.9 cents, settling at $3.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). 1
This shift stands out after the recent weather chaos that left inventories depleted, forcing traders to weigh new risks: warmer forecasts and the possibility of stronger supply. Commodity Weather Group is calling for above-normal temps across the Midwest and South through Feb. 20. Prices lost ground after Baker Hughes reported active U.S. gas rigs have hit their highest point in two and a half years. 2
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the day before that 360 billion cubic feet (bcf) were withdrawn from storage for the week ending Jan. 30, a new record. That left working gas at 2,463 bcf. According to the agency, stockpiles are sitting 27 bcf under the five-year average. The next storage data drops Feb. 12. 3
The numbers are shifting again. So far in February, LSEG data puts Lower 48 natural gas output at an average of 106.9 billion cubic feet per day—higher than January’s 106.3 bcfd. But demand, counting exports, is dropping: 159.5 bcfd this week, falling to 141.4 bcfd next week and 132.6 bcfd in two weeks. Meanwhile, gas moving to major U.S. LNG export plants climbed to around 18.5 bcfd this month, matching the record pace seen back in December. This comes as forecasters are still calling for mostly above-normal temperatures through late February. 4
This push and pull is exactly what matters. Storage doesn’t have the buffer it did heading into winter. Still, if February’s second half turns mild, that could undercut the bullish narrative fueled by last week’s draw and the spike in heating demand.
Winter Storm Fern slammed inventories, with heating demand spiking and outages hitting production across several regions. According to the EIA, the Jan. 30 pull was the biggest ever logged, while Henry Hub spot prices shot past $9 per mmBtu as the late-January chill set in. 5
At this point, traders seem unfazed by the storage shock, focusing instead on the outlook. Should the milder weather persist, supply could pile up just as the market drifts into the shoulder season—when neither heating nor cooling is much of a factor.
But the scenario could flip. A fresh blast of cold late February, more freeze-offs, or a spike in LNG feedgas demand—any of those might tighten balances again, sending volatility right back into the prompt contract.
The EIA storage report lands Feb. 12, the next big catalyst on traders’ radar. Weather model changes—expected this weekend and into early next week—could steer sentiment straight through the middle of the month.
