December 23, 2025 — Natural gas is closing out 2025 with a classic winter setup: a market pulled in two directions at once. On one side, U.S. LNG export demand is setting records, tightening the balance and supporting prices. On the other, milder weather forecasts into early January and near-record Lower 48 production are acting like a lid—creating the kind of volatility that can move “natural gas stock” in two meanings at once: gas in storage and gas-linked equities. [1]
Below is what matters most today for investors tracking natural gas producers, pipeline operators, LNG exporters, and natural gas ETFs—plus the latest official forecasts that could shape expectations for 2026.
Natural gas price action today: LNG demand pushes up, weather risk pulls back
Headlines driving today’s action center on the export channel. A Reuters update flagged record gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants, with LSEG estimating U.S. gas demand forecasts rising to about 136 Bcf/d for the next two weeks—a reminder that exports can keep demand elevated even when domestic heating demand fluctuates. [2]
At the same time, today’s market commentary continues to emphasize the counterweight: forecasts for warmer-than-normal conditions through early January, plus Lower 48 output holding around record levels. One widely circulated market note cited average Lower 48 output near 109.6 Bcf/d in December (matching November’s all-time high), with total demand—including exports—projected to ease from roughly 145 Bcf/d this week toward ~128 Bcf/d over the coming fortnight if mild weather holds. [3]
The takeaway: the market isn’t choosing between “bullish LNG” and “bearish weather” yet—it’s trading both, sometimes within the same session.
Natural gas stocks: inventories remain tight enough to matter—and the next EIA report is delayed
If you meant “natural gas stock” in the commodity sense—inventory in underground storage—the latest official benchmark remains the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage data.
For the week ending December 12, 2025, working gas in storage totaled 3,579 Bcf, after a 167 Bcf withdrawal. Stocks were about 0.9% above the five-year average and about 1.7% below year-ago levels, a mixed but still market-moving setup heading into late December cold-risk. [4]
Important timing update: next storage release comes Dec. 29
Because of the Christmas holiday schedule, EIA’s storage reporting cadence is not business-as-usual this week. EIA’s holiday release schedule lists an updated release date of Monday, December 29, 2025 (12:00 p.m. ET) for the next Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. [5]
That delay matters because storage is often the week’s single biggest “scheduled catalyst.” Without a Thursday print, traders may lean more heavily on weather model updates, LNG feedgas flows, and production estimates.
LNG exports are the structural bull case—and December is reinforcing it
The most consistently bullish theme in late 2025 has been the LNG feedgas pull. Today’s coverage again highlights that gas flows to LNG terminals are running at record levels. [6]
Two additional data points help explain why investors keep returning to LNG as the anchor narrative:
- The American Gas Association (AGA) reported that 40 LNG vessels departed the U.S. in the week ending December 10, a new weekly record, with a combined carrying capacity of 151 Bcf (using EIA-reported shipping data). [7]
- The same AGA update noted that the U.S. Department of Energy granted Woodside’s Louisiana LNG facility an extension to commence exports (a reminder that project timelines—and permitted capacity—still matter for 2026+ expectations). [8]
Why this matters for natural gas equities
LNG does two things simultaneously:
- Raises the “floor” for demand (supportive for producers over time).
- Increases sensitivity to global spreads (important for LNG exporters and for the volatility of the Henry Hub curve).
A Reuters analysis earlier this month warned that if the margin spread between Henry Hub and overseas benchmarks compresses too far, U.S. LNG exports could eventually be pressured—especially as global supply grows. That’s not a near-term shutdown call, but it is a reminder that LNG-linked names can trade both volume optimism and margin anxiety at the same time. [9]
Weather outlook: a warmer start to 2026 is possible—but power demand keeps rising
Weather remains the swing factor, and the message is nuanced rather than one-directional.
AGA’s latest market indicators reported that for the week ending December 20, the U.S. was 15.1% colder than last year and 2.5% colder than the 30-year normal (based on gas-weighted heating degree days). But the temperature probability outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicated a moderate-to-high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. into the first week of the new year. [10]
That “cold now, warmer next” pattern is exactly the recipe for price whiplash.
The demand wild card: AI and data centers
Even if January starts mild, longer-cycle demand themes are intensifying. A major Reuters report published today described how AI data-center electricity demand is contributing to delayed retirements of older “peaker” power plants, particularly in PJM, because grid operators and power markets are paying more for reliability and capacity. The report cited a Reuters analysis of filings indicating that about 60% of oil, gas, and coal plants slated for retirement in PJM postponed or canceled those plans this year, with many being peakers. [11]
And on the official forecast side, Reuters summarized EIA expectations that U.S. power consumption will reach record highs in 2025 and 2026, driven in part by data centers (AI/crypto) and electrification trends. [12]
For natural gas investors, the implication is straightforward: gas-fired generation and the infrastructure feeding it remain central, even as the renewables share rises.
EIA’s 2026 outlook: where Henry Hub and LNG exports could land next year
The clearest “baseline” set of forecasts comes from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published in December.
Key points from EIA’s current outlook:
- EIA forecast Henry Hub spot prices averaging about $4.30/MMBtu this winter heating season (Nov–Mar), about 7% higher than last winter. [13]
- EIA’s annual averages in that outlook put Henry Hub at $3.56 in 2025 and $4.01 in 2026, reflecting expectations for tighter balances and storage dynamics. [14]
- EIA projected dry natural gas production averaging ~104.3 Bcf/d in 2025 and rising further to about 109.0 Bcf/d in 2026. [15]
- LNG remains a key driver: EIA projected U.S. LNG exports averaging ~13.7 Bcf/d in 2025 and rising to about 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026 as additional liquefaction capacity ramps (with economics a variable). [16]
Separately, EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update (released Dec. 18 for the week ending Dec. 17) underscored how quickly prices can move in winter: it reported the Henry Hub spot price falling nearly 20% in a week, and the January 2026 NYMEX contract also declining over that same period, describing December futures as volatile. [17]
Natural gas stocks today: a live snapshot of key tickers tied to the gas trade
If you meant “natural gas stock” in the equity sense, here’s where several major U.S.-listed names and the most-followed gas ETF were trading intraday on Dec. 23 (prices as of ~15:44 UTC).
Producers: more torque to Henry Hub
- EQT (EQT): $53.98 (+0.90%)
- Antero Resources (AR): $33.82 (+0.60%)
- Comstock Resources (CRK): $22.42 (+2.80%)
Producers tend to react most directly to price expectations—especially the forward strip that shapes hedging and future realized pricing.
Midstream pipelines: typically steadier, but demand growth is the growth engine
- Kinder Morgan (KMI): $27.07 (+0.67%)
- Williams (WMB): $59.07 (+0.25%)
- Energy Transfer (ET): $16.20 (-0.61%)
Midstream often trades more on project visibility, contracting, permitting, and volume outlooks than on day-to-day commodity moves—though gas price volatility can still affect sentiment around growth.
LNG exporters: volume story, margin story, and expansion story
- Cheniere (LNG): $189.18 (-0.10%)
Cheniere’s valuation narrative often blends (1) global LNG demand, (2) feedgas and terminal utilization, and (3) the spread between Henry Hub and global prices—especially when domestic gas rallies.
The benchmark “natural gas ETF”
- United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG): $12.16 (+2.62%)
UNG is widely used as a liquid proxy for front-month natural gas futures exposure, though investors typically watch roll costs and curve structure closely.
Company and project headlines influencing natural gas-linked stocks this week
Even when the commodity is the headline, corporate decisions can quietly reshape the longer-term balance.
Energy Transfer pauses a major LNG project
Reuters reported that Energy Transfer suspended development of its Lake Charles LNG export project, citing cost inflation, global LNG oversupply concerns, and a strategic preference for pipelines. The same report said the company is expanding its Transwestern pipeline under its Desert Southwest project. [18]
For midstream investors, this is a reminder that not all LNG capacity gets built, and capital discipline can redirect spending into pipeline expansion instead.
Cheniere’s Corpus Christi expansion progress remains a key catalyst
A Reuters headline reported that Cheniere completed Train 4 at its Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage 3 project in Texas. [19]
On Cheniere’s own project information, the company has described Stage 3 as a multi-train expansion designed to lift total permitted Corpus Christi capacity beyond 25 mtpa as trains are completed. [20]
Antero Midstream’s financing step
Antero Midstream announced pricing for an upsized $600 million senior notes offering due 2034, with the deal expected to close on Dec. 23, 2025 (subject to customary conditions). [21]
Global context: Europe supply, Asia demand, and policy shifts still matter
Natural gas is local in pricing—but global in the way LNG links markets.
- Norway, Europe’s largest gas supplier, reported natural gas production above forecast for November, a factor that can influence European benchmark pressure and LNG pull from the Atlantic basin. [22]
- Reuters reported that Asia’s imports of U.S. LNG fell in 2025, driven partly by trade tensions and changes in buying patterns—another reminder that LNG flows are dynamic and politically sensitive. [23]
- In Australia, the government announced a gas reservation policy requiring major LNG exporters to set aside 15–25% of gas for domestic use (from 2027, applying to new contracts), a policy shift that could affect future LNG availability and regional pricing over time. [24]
What investors should watch next
With storage data delayed and the market highly weather-sensitive, the near-term checklist is unusually clear:
- EIA storage report on Dec. 29 (holiday schedule) — inventory direction into year-end often drives the first January impulse. [25]
- Daily LNG feedgas flows and terminal disruptions — record pull is supportive, but outages can move prices fast. [26]
- NOAA temperature outlook updates — even small shifts in early-January forecasts can reprice the strip. [27]
- Power-market stress signals (especially PJM) — data centers and reliability needs are becoming a year-round gas demand story, not just a winter one. [28]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 23, 2025, “natural gas stock” is being driven by the same forces in both meanings: inventory discipline and export-driven demand growth. Storage sits near the five-year norm but remains sensitive to weather swings, while LNG feedgas flows are providing a structural tailwind that increasingly bleeds into producer and midstream equity narratives.
That combination—record export pull + uncertain winter weather + rising power demand from data centers—is why natural gas-linked stocks and ETFs are likely to remain active into year-end and into the first major storage prints of January. [29]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. in.investing.com, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. ir.eia.gov, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.aga.org, 8. www.aga.org, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.aga.org, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.eia.gov, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.eia.gov, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.cheniere.com, 21. www.anteromidstream.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.theguardian.com, 25. ir.eia.gov, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.aga.org, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.tradingview.com
