Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) starts December 2, 2025 in the spotlight again, as investors digest a fresh cash-heavy bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, the aftermath of a 10‑for‑1 stock split, and a wave of new valuation calls that now stretch all the way to 2030.
Key Takeaways
- Share price: Netflix last closed around $109 per share on Monday, December 1, up about 1.4%, leaving the stock below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages and valuing the company near $460+ billion. [1]
- Big headline today: Netflix has submitted a mostly cash bid in the auction for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), competing with Paramount Skydance and Comcast; the deal could be decided as early as Christmas but faces “unique antitrust concerns”. [2]
- Fresh Dec. 2 analysis: Trefis warns “Netflix Stock To $77?”, arguing valuation is “Very High” despite strong fundamentals and suggesting material downside from current levels. [3]
- Street consensus: Around 45 Wall Street analysts still rate Netflix a “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target near $134 (roughly 20–25% upside), but with a wide range from the low‑$70s to $160. [4]
- Long‑term forecasts: Independent models from 24/7 Wall St., TradersUnion and Tikr project double‑digit annualized returns into 2027–2030, but rely on optimistic assumptions for advertising, margins and sustained content leadership. [5]
Important: This article is for information and news purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Netflix Stock Today: Price, Momentum and Post‑Split Context
After its 10‑for‑1 stock split in mid‑November, Netflix now trades in the low‑$100s rather than above $1,000 per share. Reuters reported that the split granted shareholders nine additional shares for each one held as of November 10, with split‑adjusted trading beginning November 17. [6]
On Monday, December 1:
- NFLX closed at $109.13, up 1.4% on the day.
- Volume (~24 million shares) was ~40% below the recent average, suggesting a muted but positive reaction.
- Netflix is trading below its 50‑day (~$114) and 200‑day (~$120) moving averages, pointing to a stock still in consolidation after the October–November volatility. [7]
MarketBeat also flags:
- Market cap: ≈ $462 billion
- 52‑week range: About $82–$134 per share. [8]
Short‑term technical commentary from TradersUnion describes Netflix as trading sideways near $108, with resistance around $110 and “subdued momentum,” highlighting oversold signals but a low probability of a near‑term upside breakout. [9]
The Big Story on December 2: Netflix’s Cash‑Heavy Bid for Warner Bros Discovery
The most market‑moving headline for Netflix today is its role in the auction for Warner Bros. Discovery, the parent of HBO, CNN and a deep library of film and TV franchises.
What’s happening in the auction
A detailed report from CoinCentral and other outlets lays out the situation: [10]
- Netflix submitted a mostly cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) by the December 1 deadline, sweetening a prior offer.
- WBD is taking second‑round binding bids from:
- Netflix
- Paramount Skydance
- Comcast
- Paramount Skydance’s earlier bid reportedly valued WBD at around $60 billion (~$24 per share), but the company is said to be targeting a valuation closer to $70 billion. [11]
- Netflix and Comcast are primarily interested in the film and TV studios plus the HBO Max streaming service, not the legacy cable networks or CNN. [12]
- WBD is simultaneously pushing ahead with a planned split into Warner Bros. (content & streaming) and Discovery Global (cable networks) by April 2026, so the sale could reshape or even supersede that plan. [13]
A fresh analysis from The Tokenist this morning notes that WBD stock climbed nearly 2% in pre‑market trading on December 2 after news of Netflix’s cash‑heavy offer, underscoring investor optimism about a higher takeover price. [14]
Why regulators care more if Netflix wins
The bid is not just big; it’s politically and legally sensitive:
- Netflix is already the largest global subscription streamer. Adding WBD, which operates the fourth‑largest streaming platform, raises what reports describe as “unique antitrust concerns”. [15]
- Regulators would look closely at:
- Concentration of market power in streaming video
- Control over premium franchises (e.g., Harry Potter, DC, HBO originals)
- Potential impacts on licensing to rival platforms
By contrast, Paramount Skydance and Comcast, while still large media groups, may be seen as less problematic combinations because of their current share in pure‑play streaming. [16]
What it could mean for Netflix’s stock
If Netflix ends up in exclusive negotiations and ultimately wins:
- Strategic upside:
- A dramatically larger content library with durable IP
- Stronger position in live events, sports‑adjacent programming and premium drama
- Potential cost synergies in production and technology
- Risks the market is weighing:
- A hefty cash outlay, which could pressure balance sheet flexibility in the near term
- Integration complexity across cultures, technology stacks and brand portfolios
- A prolonged regulatory review, which can weigh on a stock even before an official decision
For now, the market reaction has been modest on the NFLX side, suggesting investors are still treating the bid as speculative rather than fully priced‑in.
Fresh December 2 View: Trefis Says “Netflix Stock to $77?”
Today’s most notable valuation call comes from Trefis, which published an article on December 2, 2025 titled “Netflix Stock To $77?”. [17]
Their thesis in brief:
- Trefis’ multi‑factor model concludes it may be time to reduce exposure to NFLX.
- They highlight:
- Valuation: “Very High”
- Growth: Strong
- Profitability: Strong
- Financial Stability: Very Strong
- Downturn Resilience: Moderate
- Based on this mix, they label the stock “Relatively Expensive” and say a move down toward $77 per share is “not out of reach.” [18]
Trefis points out that on its metrics, Netflix trades at multiples far above the broader S&P 500 on price‑to‑sales, price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow, even though recent revenue, margins and cash generation all look strong. [19]
The $77 figure broadly aligns with the low end of Wall Street’s 12‑month target range (around $72–77), effectively echoing the most bearish end of the analyst spectrum. [20]
Q3 2025: Strong Growth, One‑Off Tax Hit and Ad Momentum
To understand why analysts are so divided on valuation, it helps to revisit Netflix’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025).
Independent breakdowns of Netflix’s Q3 2025 numbers show: [21]
- Revenue:
- About $11.51 billion, up ~17% year‑over‑year.
- Net income:
- Roughly $2.55 billion, up about 8% YoY.
- EPS:
- Around $5.87, below analyst expectations (≈$6.9) because of a one‑time tax hit.
- Operating income & margin:
- Operating income approx $3.25 billion
- Operating margin ~28.2%, versus prior guidance near 31.5%, due largely to that tax item.
- Free cash flow:
- Around $2.66 billion, up more than 20% YoY.
The big swing factor:
- Netflix booked a $619 million non‑income tax provision in Brazil after an adverse court ruling, which compressed margins and EPS. Management emphasized that the hit is non‑recurring and unrelated to the underlying streaming business. [22]
Several analysts, including Argus and Seaport, reiterated Buy ratings after Q3, arguing that results would have beaten expectations without the Brazil charge. [23]
Business momentum behind the numbers
Netflix’s own Q3 shareholder letter and follow‑up analyses highlight: [24]
- Ad‑supported tier:
- Netflix says it’s on track to more than double ad revenue in 2025, and in markets where ads are available, the ad plan accounted for roughly half of new sign‑ups with ad‑tier membership up about 35% quarter‑over‑quarter.
- Engagement & content:
- Netflix hit record TV time share in Q3 in both the U.S. (8.6%) and U.K. (9.4%).
- The animated film “KPop Demon Hunters” has become one of its biggest global hits and a merchandising engine, with major licensing tie‑ups announced with Mattel and Hasbro.
- The live boxing bout between Terence Crawford and Canelo Álvarez attracted more than 40 million viewers, making it one of the most‑watched men’s championship fights of the century and showcasing Netflix’s push into live events.
- Technology & AI:
- Netflix is rolling out a new TV interface to most devices and experimenting with conversational search and other GenAI tools to improve discovery and localization, which it believes will deepen engagement over time.
Despite the short‑term hit from the Brazil tax case, guidance points to:
- Full‑year 2025 revenue of roughly $43–45+ billion,
- Operating margins around 29% after trimming a prior 30% target. [25]
The 10‑for‑1 Stock Split and Talk of Dow Jones Inclusion
On October 30, 2025, Netflix announced a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split, its third split since going public, to make its shares more accessible to both employees and retail investors. [26]
Key details:
- Record date: November 10, 2025
- Split‑adjusted trading began: November 17, 2025
- Rationale:
- Lower the nominal share price (previously over $1,100)
- Facilitate broader participation in employee stock programs
- Fundamentals unchanged: As multiple articles stressed, a stock split does not change the company’s underlying value or earnings power; it simply divides the equity into more, cheaper shares. [27]
A feature article at MarketBeat goes further, arguing the split may be part of a “calculated play for the Dow Jones Industrial Average”: [28]
- The Dow is price‑weighted, so stocks with four‑digit share prices are difficult to include without distorting the index.
- By bringing its price down to the $100–$110 range, Netflix has removed the mathematical barrier to Dow inclusion.
- The article highlights that Netflix is now:
- Generating around $9 billion in free cash flow in 2025 (company guidance and analyst estimates)
- Consistently profitable with a diversified revenue mix (subscriptions + advertising + live events + licensing)
If Netflix were eventually added to the Dow:
- Index funds tracking the DJIA would be forced to buy, creating automatic demand (“Dow effect”).
- Inclusion would further cement Netflix’s identity as a blue‑chip media and tech company, potentially broadening its shareholder base and slightly dampening volatility. [29]
There is no guarantee of Dow inclusion, and no public timetable from the index committee, but the narrative is now part of the bull case.
Wall Street vs. Quant Models: What Do Forecasts Say?
1. Street consensus (next 12 months)
MarketBeat’s aggregation of 45 analysts currently shows: [30]
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
- 1 Sell
- 12 Hold
- 30 Buy
- 2 Strong Buy
- Average 12‑month price target:$133.90
- Implied upside of ~23% from ~$109
- High target: $160
- Low target: $72
Other aggregators like TradersUnion and 24/7 Wall St. report similar average targets in the mid‑$130s, using a mix of Street estimates and their own modelling. [31]
2. 24/7 Wall St.: Detailed 2025–2030 outlook
A long‑form forecast from 24/7 Wall St. lays out a structured scenario through 2030: [32]
- Starting from a share price around $107, they note analysts’ consensus target near $134.44 (about 25% upside) with a range of $77–$160.
- Their internal projection assumes:
- ~12% annual revenue growth
- Net income rising from $9.0 billion in 2025 to $17.4 billion by 2030
- Margins improving as advertising and scale kick in
- Resulting price targets (approximate, split‑adjusted):
- 2025: $121.54 (≈13% upside)
- 2026: $143.71
- 2027: $154.60
- 2028: $165.92
- 2029: $189.44
- 2030: $222.30 (roughly double their assumed starting price)
These numbers assume Netflix retains global streaming leadership, successfully scales high‑margin advertising, and uses its content and live events to keep engagement and pricing power strong.
3. TradersUnion: Stats‑driven, more aggressive long‑term path
TradersUnion combines analyst targets with a statistical model and offers a more aggressive long‑term trajectory: [33]
- 2026 (middle of year): projected average price ≈ $170.72
- 2026 (year‑end): ≈ $161.91
- 2030 (year‑end): average projected price around $585, with mid‑year around $475 (all split‑adjusted).
These figures imply multi‑bagger potential over the next decade, but TradersUnion is explicit that they’re model‑based, not guarantees, and highly sensitive to growth and interest‑rate assumptions.
4. Tikr: Valuation model aiming for 2027
Tikr’s recent piece, last updated on November 28, walks through a valuation model and concludes: [34]
- NFLX could “reasonably” reach $141 per share by December 2027, from about $106 at the time of writing.
- That equates to roughly 33% total return (~14% annualized over ~2 years).
- Assumptions include:
- 13% annual revenue growth
- 34% operating margin over time
- 33x exit P/E multiple (slightly below recent forward multiples in the mid‑30s to low‑40s).
Tikr stresses the sensitivity of outcomes: in their low case (tougher competition), they still model double‑digit returns, while a high case with stronger ad adoption and more “cultural phenomenon” hits yields annualized returns above 20%.
5. Short‑term signals and quant forecasts
Shorter‑horizon models and trading tools are more cautious:
- TradersUnion’s near‑term forecasts and technical notes describe Netflix consolidating in the low‑$100s, with a tendency toward sideways price action and “weak rebound odds” unless it can break above the $110 level decisively. [35]
- RoboForex’s recent NFLX outlook (late October) highlights the stock’s strong post‑2022 recovery but warns that after the Q3 wobble and split enthusiasm, volatility is elevated and pullbacks are likely within a broader uptrend. [36]
Diverging Views on Valuation
One reason the forecasts are so wide is that valuation is genuinely contentious:
- Reuters recently pegged Netflix’s forward P/E in the mid‑40s, well above Disney and Comcast, reflecting the market’s willingness to pay up for growth and dominant positioning. [37]
- 24/7 Wall St. assumes Netflix can sustain elevated multiples (around 40x) thanks to a mix of subscription, advertising, gaming and live events revenue. [38]
- Trefis, on the other hand, sees Netflix’s multiples as so far above the S&P 500 that they warrant caution despite strong fundamentals, hence their $77 downside scenario. [39]
On top of that, some data feeds are still normalizing the post‑split figures, leading to odd‑looking P/E readings (e.g., single digits or triple digits) in certain screeners. Investors generally need to double‑check whether EPS and price have both been adjusted for the split before drawing conclusions from any single ratio.
Risks and What to Watch Next
Key risks
- Warner Bros. Discovery deal risk
- If Netflix wins, integration and regulatory risk will be significant.
- If it loses, the market may reassess how much of a premium it had quietly priced in for a transformative deal.
- Advertising execution
- Management and several analyses assume ad revenue more than doubles in 2025 and continues to scale rapidly. If ad tech or demand growth disappoint, the high‑margin piece of the bull case weakens. [40]
- Content and competition
- Live events (NFL games, big fights), global series, and films like KPop Demon Hunters have been big drivers of engagement. But competition from Disney+, Amazon, YouTube and TikTok remains intense, especially among younger viewers. [41]
- Regulatory and tax uncertainties
- The Brazil tax ruling is officially a one‑off, but it underlines the kind of legal and tax risks that come with a global footprint. Future disputes or regulatory shifts (e.g., around content, data or competition) could hit margins again. [42]
- Macro and rate environment
- Many long‑term valuation models implicitly assume a reasonably benign interest‑rate backdrop. Higher‑for‑longer rates typically compress high‑multiple growth stocks first.
Near‑term catalysts
Investors watching NFLX over the next few weeks and months will likely focus on:
- Any indication that Warner Bros. Discovery is entering exclusive talks with a bidder (and whether that bidder is Netflix). [43]
- Updated commentary on ad revenue growth and ad‑tier adoption as Q4 and full‑year 2025 numbers come into view. [44]
- The performance of Netflix’s holiday content slate and live NFL Christmas games, which could provide a timely test of its live‑event ambitions. [45]
- Any chatter from index providers that might hint at possible Dow Jones inclusion in 2026. [46]
Bottom Line
On December 2, 2025, Netflix stock sits at the intersection of lofty expectations and real strategic opportunity:
- The core streaming business is growing solidly, generating billions in free cash flow, and expanding into advertising, gaming and live events. [47]
- The Warner Bros. Discovery bid could, if successful, reshape the media landscape but brings heavy regulatory scrutiny and balance‑sheet questions. [48]
- Valuation is the swing factor: consensus targets cluster in the $130s, long‑term models suggest room for meaningful upside, while at least one prominent model (Trefis) sees a path down toward $77 if sentiment and multiples reset. [49]
For investors and traders, Netflix on this date is less a simple “buy or sell” and more a high‑conviction Rorschach test: what you believe about its ability to stay the dominant streaming and media platform – and about regulators’ tolerance for that dominance – will probably matter more than any single quarter’s numbers.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. coincentral.com, 3. www.trefis.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. 247wallst.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. tradersunion.com, 10. coincentral.com, 11. coincentral.com, 12. coincentral.com, 13. coincentral.com, 14. tokenist.com, 15. coincentral.com, 16. coincentral.com, 17. www.trefis.com, 18. www.trefis.com, 19. www.trefis.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. roboforex.com, 22. filing-insight.com, 23. intellectia.ai, 24. static.poder360.com.br, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. tradersunion.com, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. tradersunion.com, 34. www.tikr.com, 35. tradersunion.com, 36. roboforex.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. 247wallst.com, 39. www.trefis.com, 40. www.tikr.com, 41. static.poder360.com.br, 42. filing-insight.com, 43. coincentral.com, 44. www.tikr.com, 45. static.poder360.com.br, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. roboforex.com, 48. coincentral.com, 49. www.trefis.com
