Nickel prices are under renewed pressure on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, hovering close to multi‑month lows as markets digest weak signals from China’s economy, thinning year‑end liquidity, and a new wave of oversupply warnings and bank forecasts.
In London, benchmark nickel has struggled to regain traction after testing an eight‑month low at the start of the week, while in China, nickel contracts have slid to fresh multi‑year troughs—reinforcing the idea that the market remains defined by abundant supply and cautious demand.
Nickel price today: where nickel is trading on Dec. 16, 2025
Nickel “price today” can vary depending on which benchmark you follow (LME three‑month, LME cash, exchange‑traded futures, or regional spot markets). Here’s what today’s most‑watched references show:
- LME nickel (three‑month): Nickel was reported down 0.2% at $14,310 per tonne during London trade, after touching an eight‑month low of $14,235 on Monday. [1]
- LME nickel closing reference (next‑day delayed): The London Metal Exchange showed a 3‑month Closing Price (day‑delayed) of $14,346, down 1.65%. [2]
- Intraday range snapshot (LME three‑month, via SMM): A widely followed market feed showed Open $14,280 / High $14,350 / Low $14,250, with pricing around $14,310 later in the session. [3]
- Nickel futures (Investing.com): Nickel futures were listed around $14,281, with a day’s range of $14,218–$14,320. [4]
- Shanghai (SHFE) nickel: Reuters reported SHFE nickel fell to a 40‑month low of 111,770 yuan/tonne, underscoring weakness in the Chinese market. [5]
Bottom line: Across major benchmarks, nickel is effectively trading in the mid‑$14,000s per tonne, with China’s onshore market flashing the sharpest downside momentum.
What’s driving nickel prices today
Today’s nickel move isn’t about one headline—it’s a stack of macro pressure, demand anxiety, and surplus math.
1) China demand worries are back in focus
A key drag on industrial metals today is the latest signal that China’s industrial pulse is cooling again. Reuters reported that China’s factory output slowed to a 15‑month low in November, while new home prices continued to fall—a combination that typically weighs on base‑metal demand expectations. [6]
Because stainless steel is still the biggest “everyday” demand engine for nickel, any sign of softer construction and manufacturing demand in China tends to show up quickly in nickel pricing.
2) Oversupply dominates the story—and the forecasts
Oversupply has been the market’s central theme, and it strengthened again this week.
Reuters noted that Russia’s Nornickel raised its expected nickel surplus and pointed to a significantly larger surplus outlook for 2025 and 2026 than previously indicated. [7] This matters because Nornickel is one of the world’s major refined nickel producers—so its balance projections are closely watched.
At the same time, nickel’s weakness is showing up across the broader value chain:
- Reuters highlighted that nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel sulfate have been weakening since mid‑October, reflecting pressure in stainless‑steel feedstocks and battery materials. [8]
3) Year-end liquidity is amplifying swings
With many market participants reducing risk into year‑end, price moves can become sharper than the underlying fundamentals might otherwise justify.
In a Reuters‑published market update, analysts at Sucden Financial flagged that thinning liquidity can make base‑metals price swings more exaggerated, leaving the complex vulnerable to abrupt moves. [9]
In other words: even modest selling can push nickel harder when order books are thinner.
The China signals inside the nickel market: spot prices, premiums, and “real economy” demand
One of the most useful ways to read nickel is to look beyond the headline LME price and into what the physical market is doing in China.
Refined nickel spot: prices down, premiums mixed
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that on Dec. 16, China’s SMM #1 refined nickel was quoted at 111,700–117,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 114,750 yuan/mt, down 2,650 yuan/mt on the day. [10]
At the same time, SMM noted that Jinchuan refined nickel premiums remained elevated—quoted around 5,500–5,700 yuan/mt (average 5,600), even as the underlying price slid. [11]
That combination—falling outright prices but resilient premiums—often signals a market where:
- demand is cautious (buyers resist higher outright prices), but
- deliverable “preferred” material can still command a premium.
Battery-grade nickel sulfate: slipping with weak procurement sentiment
On the battery side, SMM’s nickel sulfate update said the battery‑grade nickel sulphate index was 27,181 yuan/mt, with battery‑grade quotations around 27,430–27,530 yuan/mt, edging lower versus the prior day. [12]
SMM attributed the softer tone to a combination of:
- a pullback in LME nickel (lowering near‑term cost support),
- weak downstream raw‑material demand,
- and generally sluggish stockpiling sentiment. [13]
NPI (nickel pig iron): still drifting lower
SMM’s Dec. 16 daily review put 10–12% high‑grade NPI at an average 886.5 yuan/mtu, down slightly, noting sluggish transactions and weak buying interest following the futures slump. [14]
For the stainless‑steel supply chain, this is significant: when NPI prices weaken, it often reflects (or reinforces) the idea that stainless demand is not strong enough to absorb supply comfortably.
Today’s key nickel analysis: “bottom-fishing” meets inventory pressure
A detailed SMM market note on Dec. 16 described nickel as being in a “bottom‑seeking” phase after breaking support, with upside constrained by high inventory and weak demand. [15]
SMM also offered a granular look at the tug‑of‑war between cost support and inventory pressure:
- Nickel price action (SMM view): LME nickel settled around $14,295/mt, down 2.22%, while the most‑traded SHFE nickel contract fell 2.36% on the day. [16]
- Inventory snapshot: SMM cited refined nickel social inventory around 59,000 mt in December and referenced LME inventory hovering around 253,000 mt—a backdrop consistent with weak demand. [17]
- Cost “floor” discussion: SMM highlighted cost benchmarks for producing refined nickel from different intermediate routes and suggested that hydrometallurgical costs are becoming a key level traders watch for potential downside support. [18]
- Near-term range call (China): SMM projected the most‑traded SHFE nickel contract could trade 112,000–116,000 yuan/mt in the short term. [19]
This cost-and-inventory framing matters because it captures the market’s current psychology: prices can fall toward cost, but inventories can keep rallies capped.
Nickel price forecast: what analysts updated today (Dec. 16, 2025)
Forecasts also moved into the spotlight today, with a notable bank update.
Morgan Stanley: nickel seen “retreating” toward $15,500/ton in 2026
In a Reuters‑reported note dated Dec. 16, Morgan Stanley revised its 2026 base‑metals outlook and said it expects nickel prices to retreat toward $15,500/ton as demand grows at a similar rate to supply. [20]
Crucially, the bank also flagged cross‑currents that keep the nickel outlook complicated:
- Indonesian policy changes as a potential downside risk to supply,
- and market share losses in EV batteries as a demand headwind, leaving nickel in surplus through 2026 in their framing. [21]
This is an important “middle path” forecast: it doesn’t call for a dramatic bull market, but it also suggests that—even amid oversupply—nickel doesn’t necessarily stay pinned at today’s depressed levels forever.
What to watch next for nickel prices
With nickel sitting near the lower end of its recent range, traders and industrial buyers are watching a handful of near‑term catalysts:
- China’s next demand signals
Follow industrial activity, property data, and stainless‑steel indicators—because today’s selloff was tightly linked to renewed China growth concerns. [22] - Surplus narrative vs. policy risks
The market is weighing oversupply expectations against the possibility that regulation, quotas, or disruptions (especially tied to Indonesia‑linked supply) could tighten balances faster than expected. [23] - Battery material pricing and procurement
Nickel sulfate pricing and precursor buying behavior can be an early tell on battery‑chain demand—right now, SMM is describing procurement as cautious and transactions as scattered. [24] - Inventory trends (LME and China)
Inventories and “deliverable supply” remain a major anchor for sentiment, and today’s analyses continue to highlight inventory pressure as a lid on upside. [25]
Takeaway: nickel price today is weak—but the market is searching for a floor
Nickel price action on Dec. 16, 2025 reflects a market still trapped between surplus supply and uneven demand, with macro concerns (especially China) adding downside pressure. [26]
At roughly $14,300 per tonne, nickel is trading near levels that are forcing producers and consumers alike to re-check costs, inventories, and procurement plans—setting up a tense end‑of‑year period where volatility can be amplified by thinner liquidity. [27]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.brecorder.com, 2. www.lme.com, 3. www.metal.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.brecorder.com, 10. news.metal.com, 11. news.metal.com, 12. www.metal.com, 13. www.metal.com, 14. news.metal.com, 15. news.metal.com, 16. news.metal.com, 17. news.metal.com, 18. news.metal.com, 19. news.metal.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.metal.com, 25. news.metal.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.brecorder.com
