NEW YORK, July 5, 2026, 18:01 EDT
- NIKE, Inc. NYSE:NKE gained 8.2% from June 26 to July 2, outpacing both the S&P 500 ETF and the consumer discretionary ETF during the shortened U.S. trading week.
- U.S. markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Trading picks back up Monday.
- Nike’s fiscal Q4 gross margin jumped 890 basis points, but a $986 million tariff recovery accounted for about 900 basis points of that and added $0.52 to reported EPS.
- Greater China revenue dropped 12% as reported, down 17% currency-neutral for the quarter. Nike Direct sales slipped 7% reported, down 9% currency-neutral.
NIKE, Inc. NYSE:NKE heads into Monday with shares that look better than the company’s income statement. NIKE closed Thursday at $44.09, gaining 2.39% for the day and now up 8.2% since the June 26 close. U.S. markets were closed Friday for Independence Day, and the market cap was about $65.3 billion.
The bounce topped the wider market. The spread shows investors paid for an early turnaround, even as profit improved partly on a big tariff recovery.
| Instrument | June 26 close | July 2 close | Short-week move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc. NYSE:NKE | $40.75 | $44.09 | up 8.2% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust NYSEARCA:SPY | $728.99 | $744.78 | gained 2.2% |
| Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLY) | $114.37 | $117.12 | added 2.4% |
Margin quality is the big question for the week. Nike turned in fourth-quarter revenue of $11.0 billion, down 1% as reported and off 4% currency-neutral. Gross margin climbed to 49.2%, but most of that was from IEEPA tariff recovery—about 900 basis points, just over the 890-basis-point gain reported. Diluted EPS hit $0.72, boosted by a $0.52 gain tied to tariffs.
| Nike fiscal Q4 item | Reported figure | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0 billion | Still lower than a year ago |
| Gross margin | 49.2% | Shows an 890 bp bump on the release |
| Tariff recovery | $986 million | Pushed margin higher by about 900 bps |
| Diluted EPS | $0.72 | Tariff recovery gave $0.52 of that |
| Nike Direct revenue | $4.1 billion | Down 7% stated, off 9% on currency-neutral |
| Wholesale revenue | $6.6 billion | Up 4% reported, up 1% currency-neutral |
This math explains why the 8% gain in the stock doesn’t fully reflect the business. Reuters said gross margin, without the one-time tariff help, slipped 10 basis points to 40.2%. The $0.52 EPS boost from tariff relief made up about 72% of the $0.72 profit reported for the quarter.
Nike CEO Elliott Hill said the company is still seeing “top-line headwinds,” but noted “progress in performance product.” CFO Matthew Friend added that sell-through “remains challenged.” Business Wire
Analysts sounded cautious but stopped short of full-on bearish calls. “The Nike turnaround is progressing slowly,” Cristina Fernandez at Telsey Advisory Group told Reuters. Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers called it “more good news … than bad news.” Thomas Hayes, chair of Great Hill Capital, said much of the bad news was already “priced in.” Reuters
The numbers cut both ways. North America was up 3% for the quarter, but Greater China slid 12% as reported and 17% excluding currency. Converse dropped 32% reported. Direct channel sales stayed soft.
| Area or channel | Q4 revenue | Reported change | Currency-neutral change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $4.83 billion | up 3% | up 3% |
| EMEA | $2.98 billion | down 1% | down 6% |
| Greater China | $1.30 billion | down 12% | down 17% |
| Asia Pacific & Latin America | $1.60 billion | up 1% | down 1% |
| Nike Direct | $4.1 billion | down 7% | down 9% |
| Wholesale | $6.6 billion | up 4% | up 1% |
| Converse | $244 million | down 32% | down 34% |
For Nike shareholders, most of the capital return comes from dividends instead of buybacks. The company said it returned $2.5 billion in fiscal 2026, with $2.4 billion paid in dividends and $123 million spent on share repurchases out of its $18 billion buyback plan.
Nike has some product catalysts coming in the second half. Reuters reported Nike is planning over a dozen new footwear launches and will boost World Cup marketing. Hill said launches won’t turn into steady growth right away.
U.S. markets open again Monday at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Initial price levels in focus are the $45.04 high from Thursday, the $44.09 close, and $40.00 as the low from June 26.
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