NIO (NYSE:NIO) Shares Drop 8% Even as Deliveries Jump 63%, Ahead of Key ES8 Margin Assessment

NIO (NYSE:NIO) Shares Drop 8% Even as Deliveries Jump 63%, Ahead of Key ES8 Margin Assessment

NEW YORK, July 26, 2026, 16:02 EDT — U.S. markets ended trading for the day.

  • NIO ended Friday at $4.49, falling 3.2% for its seventh consecutive loss.
  • The stock dropped 8.0% over the week, compared with a 2.1% loss for the Nasdaq.
  • NIO posted a 49.4% increase in second-quarter deliveries, falling short of its lower-end guidance by 2.1%.

NIO Inc.’s American depositary receipts closed at $4.49 on Friday, a decrease of 3.2%. The decline marked the seventh consecutive session of losses. Over the week, the stock dropped 8.0%.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1% during the same week. As a result, NIO’s decline was almost four times steeper than the tech-focused index. This occurred even though NIO reported the highest June delivery growth compared to other U.S.-listed Chinese rivals.

The movement in price indicates investors are applying tougher criteria. Increased volume must now maintain margins and underpin steady profit. NIO’s delivery miss for the quarter kept that issue unresolved.

XPeng Inc. came close to NIO’s June sales numbers. Li Auto Inc. recorded lower volumes than both, but its stock performed more steadily over the past week.

CompanyJuly 24 closeWeekly changeJune deliveriesYear-on-year change
NIO$4.49-8.0%40,597+62.9%
XPeng$12.33-8.9%40,126+15.9%
Li Auto$12.12-2.2%30,895-14.8%

Weekly shifts are based on closing prices from July 17 and July 24.

Delivery numbers are as reported by each company. XPeng and Li Auto year-on-year growth estimates are based on June 2025 figures.

NIO’s June deliveries surpassed XPeng by just 471 units, but its annual growth rate was nearly four times higher. Li Auto sold 9,702 fewer vehicles; however, its share price dropped by just 2.2%.

Some of the caution stems from execution during the quarter. NIO reported deliveries of 107,658 vehicles in the second quarter, marking a 49.4% increase. However, that figure was still 2.1% under the management’s guidance floor of 110,000 units.

The ES8 five-seater is now included in the July test. Pricing begins at 382,800 yuan, or 274,800 yuan when opting for battery rental. Deliveries started on July 10, and the launch incentives end on July 31.

Initial data appears more solid. NIO reached its 130,000th delivery of the third-generation ES8 on July 22. Delivering the most recent 10,000 units required one month.

Deliveries of the ES8 in June dropped 21.9% from May to 8,969 units. Some customers postponed buying as they waited for the launch of the five-seat model. The entry-level price of the new version is 5.9% less than that of the three-row variant.

Early estimate: According to Wang Bin’s team at Deutsche Bank , new orders for June were close to 77,000, down 8% from May, per third-party weekly figures. NIO has yet to verify this estimate.

Preliminary first-quarter figures indicated a vehicle margin of 18.8%. Gross margin was 19.0%, with adjusted operating profit recorded at 66.8 million yuan. The impact of the more affordable ES8 on those gains will become clear with July’s product mix.

Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou raised her rating on NIO to Buy as of July 13. Her price target of $7 suggests a potential upside of 56% from Friday’s close. After initially rising on the upgrade, the shares have since given up those gains.

Two deadlines are coming up this week. The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting on July 28 and 29. Following that, NIO’s ES8 purchase-benefit period ends on July 31.

Risks persist. Chief Executive William Li stated that inflation in raw materials has increased the cost of each ES8 by close to 20,000 yuan. “In the short term, this is still within what we can bear,” he said. An extended period of price competition may reduce that margin. CnEVPost

Why did NIO finish the week at $4.49?

NIO’s ADR closed Friday at $4.49, falling 3.23% that session. It lost 8.0% from the prior Friday’s $4.88 close. The decline reached seven sessions, while volume trailed its 50-day average. NIO’s newsroom showed no new operating update after July 9. MarketWatch

What is the main catalyst in the week ahead?

Based on prior releases, investors will expect July deliveries near August 1. The date is not formally scheduled on NIO’s events page. June deliveries reached 40,597, the strongest monthly total reported this year. A 40,000 July result would exceed July 2025 by about 90%. Nio

Did NIO meet its second-quarter delivery guidance?

It missed the target. NIO delivered 107,658 vehicles, up 49.4% from one year earlier. Management had guided for 110,000 to 115,000, leaving a 2,342-unit shortfall. Actual deliveries finished 2.1% below the guidance floor. Nio

Could second-quarter revenue still meet management’s forecast?

NIO guided for RMB32.78 billion to RMB34.44 billion in second-quarter revenue. That forecast assumed deliveries between 110,000 and 115,000 vehicles. Actual volume missed the range, so revenue risk shifted lower. A richer premium-model mix could offset some shortfall, but results remain unreported. Nio

Is NIO now consistently profitable?

Not on a GAAP basis. First-quarter net loss was RMB332.1 million, after RMB282.7 million profit in Q4. Adjusted operating profit stayed positive at RMB66.8 million, but fell sharply. Second-quarter deliveries rose 29% sequentially, helping spread fixed costs. Nio

How strong is NIO’s balance sheet?

NIO reported RMB48.2 billion, or $7.0 billion, in financial resources. That total includes restricted cash, investments and long-term time deposits. Net current assets turned positive, while operating cash flow was also positive. The pool equals roughly 75% of Friday’s $9.37 billion market value. Restricted cash is not fully deployable. Nio

Are the new models improving NIO’s sales mix?

June’s 40,597 deliveries included 21,908 vehicles from the NIO brand. ONVO added 11,743, while FIREFLY contributed another 6,946 vehicles. The two newer brands supplied 46% of June volume. Meanwhile, the premium ES9 reached 10,000 deliveries within its first 30 days. Five-seat ES8 deliveries began July 10, adding another premium-volume test. Nio

Does the U.S. military-company designation threaten the stock?

NIO joined the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list in June. The list is not a sanctions list and does not block securities trading. NIO disputes the designation and may pursue legal action. Immediate operating effects appear limited, but escalation remains an important uncertainty. Nio

Is the stock cheap after the selloff?

Friday’s $9.37 billion market value equals about 0.75 times 2025 revenue. That looks low beside delivery growth approaching 50% year over year. Yet NIO lost $2.14 billion in 2025, so no meaningful P/E exists. A low sales multiple matters only if margins and cash flow remain durable.

Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key developments influencing global financial markets and emerging industries.

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