Chicago, August 11, 2026, 18:36 EDT
- Shares of NIQ ended the session up 42.0% at $16.58 following its second-quarter earnings.
- Free cash flow for the quarter shifted to $74.1 million, compared with negative $63.2 million previously.
- The updated projection for 2026 now anticipates free cash flow of $245 million to $255 million.
Shares of NIQ Global Intelligence plc NYSE:NIQ jumped 42.0% on Tuesday, lifted by a significant improvement in cash flow and an upgraded full-year forecast that changed investor outlook. The stock finished the session at $16.58, a gain of $4.90.
The development is significant as NIQ’s post-IPO discount had signaled concerns over debt, the impact of artificial-intelligence disruption and cash conversion. Free cash flow for the second quarter shifted to positive, and interest expenses declined.
However, the rerating largely took place within a single session. The closing price aligned with the average target set by 14 analysts, despite five firms revising their outlooks on Tuesday.
| NIQ stock measure | August 11 reading | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| Close | $16.58 | Rose $4.90 |
| One-day change | +42.0% | Repriced after earnings |
| Volume | 9.82 million | Trading volume was 6.2 times the three-month average |
| Change from August 4 | +41.7% | Closed at $11.70 on August 4 |
| Discount to $21 IPO price | 21.0% | Discount narrowed substantially |
| Distance from 52-week high | 11.3% | 52-week high stood at $18.70 |
Trading volume reached approximately 9.82 million shares, above the three-month daily average of 1.57 million. NIQ’s closing prices ranged from $11.56 to $11.70 between August 3 and August 10. Data for Tuesday’s price and volume was sourced from Yahoo Finance, while closing prices from the previous week were obtained from Nasdaq market data.
The stock is still trading under its $21 IPO price. In July 2025, NIQ sold 50 million shares at $21 each, raising $1.05 billion. Funds from the sale were used to pay down debt.
Revenue increased by 8.0% to $1.12 billion for the June quarter. Organic constant-currency growth reached 5.8%.
The cash numbers were more significant. Free cash flow rose by $137.3 million from the previous year, as cash interest decreased by $30 million.
| Second-quarter metric | 2026 | 2025 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,124.2 million | $1,040.8 million | up 8.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $261.9 million | $214.9 million | increase of 21.9% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 23.3% | 20.6% | expanded by 270 basis points |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.27 | -$0.01 | shifted to positive |
| Free cash flow | $74.1 million | -$63.2 million | improved by $137.3 million |
| GAAP net loss attributable to NIQ | $30.5 million | $2.7 million | loss grew |
The company calculates free cash flow by subtracting capital expenditures from operating cash flow. Adjusted results do not include restructuring, integration and transaction costs, or similar items. The GAAP net loss increased, further distancing the cash flow performance from earnings reported.
Chief Executive Jim Peck stated, “Both Intelligence and Activation OCC revenue growth accelerated, margins expanded by 270 basis points and free cash flow inflected positive.” NIQ second-quarter release
Growth was widespread, though varied across regions. Organic constant-currency revenue increased by 8.3% in the Americas, 4.9% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 1.9% in Asia-Pacific.
| Business area | Q2 reported revenue | Reported growth | Organic constant-currency growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $455.1 million | 12.1% | 8.3% |
| EMEA | $507.8 million | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| APAC | $161.3 million | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Intelligence | $905.3 million | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Activation | $218.9 million | 9.9% | 6.1% |
Intelligence subscription revenue on an annualized basis totaled $3.02 billion. Net dollar retention came in at 105%, and gross dollar retention remained at 99%. NIQ secured 26 client wins worth seven figures each, with three of those surpassing eight figures.
Management increased all key full-year forecasts. The updated midpoint for free-cash-flow guidance stands $7.5 million higher than the previous midpoint.
| Full-year 2026 outlook | Earlier range | Updated range |
|---|---|---|
| Reported revenue | $4,439 million-$4,452 million | $4,496 million-$4,510 million |
| Organic constant-currency growth | 5.0%-5.3% | 5.2%-5.6% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1,043 million-$1,060 million | $1,057 million-$1,076 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 23.5%-23.8% | 23.5%-23.9% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.95-$0.99 | $1.08-$1.12 |
| Free cash flow | $235 million-$250 million | $245 million-$255 million |
NIQ’s earlier ranges were based on its first-quarter update. The latest outlook reflects the reported impact of the YiMian acquisition, but does not count it toward organic growth.
NIQ projects it will generate “approximately $300 million of levered free cash flow” during the latter half of 2026, Chief Financial Officer Mike Burwell stated. This forecast marks a turnaround from the negative $49.1 million reported in the first six months. NIQ second-quarter release
Several analysts raised their price targets following the report. Among 14 analysts, the average target increased to $16.58, spanning from a low of $13 to a high of $24. The consensus rating stayed at Buy.
| Analyst | Firm | August 11 rating | Prior target | New target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Nagle | Bank of America NYSE:BAC | Buy | $18 | $18 |
| Kevin McVeigh | UBS Group NYSE:UBS | Buy | $16 | $17 |
| Faiza Alwy | Deutsche Bank NYSE:DB | Hold | $14 | $15 |
| Shlomo Rosenbaum | Stifel Financial NYSE:SF | Buy | $16 | $17 |
| Jason Haas | Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC | Buy | $13 | $17 |
Analyst data was refreshed following Tuesday’s report. Out of five listed calls, four were positive, but just the $18 target was more than 3% higher than the closing price.
Risks: NIQ posted a GAAP net loss of $30.5 million. The company’s restructuring involves pretax charges ranging from $65 million to $75 million, and growth in Asia-Pacific continues to be limited. Additionally, a single-day jump of 42% could increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
The coming week focuses on delivery rather than new statements. Investors will assess if NIQ can maintain levels close to the revised consensus target and generate the approximately $300 million in second-half free cash flow that management has projected in its outlook.
