Copenhagen, Feb 4, 2026, 10:49 (CET) — Regular session.
- Shares of Novo Nordisk dropped roughly 18% following a warning from the Wegovy maker about potential sales and profit declines in 2026.
- Management highlighted intense U.S. price pressure alongside rising competition in the obesity drug market.
- Investors are focused on U.S. pricing details, the rise of copycat “compounded” drugs, and a leadership change in the U.S. unit set for Feb. 5.
Novo Nordisk A/S shares dropped roughly 18% in early Copenhagen trading Wednesday, last seen near 302.5 Danish crowns. The decline followed the drugmaker’s 2026 outlook, which hinted at a steep slowdown in its weight-loss business. (Reuters)
This slide is significant since Novo has been a key engine behind Europe’s indexes. Its guidance now arrives amid a growing price war in obesity medications — a sector investors once saw as nearly guaranteed growth.
The core issue lies in pricing, not demand.
Novo projected adjusted operating profit and sales to drop between 5% and 13% this year on a constant currency basis, a steeper decline than the 2% average forecast from analysts. “Our 2026 guidance reflects a year of unprecedented pricing pressure,” CEO Mike Doustdar told reporters. Union Investment’s portfolio manager Markus Manns added, “nobody had a double-digit profit decline on the agenda.” The company also highlighted strong momentum for its oral Wegovy launch, with weekly prescriptions reaching about 50,000 by Jan. 23. In the U.S., it is selling lower doses for $149 a month to cash-paying patients, a price set to rise to $199 in April. (Reuters)
Late Tuesday, the company pointed to falling realised prices—particularly in the U.S.—heightened competition, and the expiration of semaglutide patents in some international markets as key challenges. It also highlighted ongoing “compounding,” where specialised pharmacies produce copycat versions, as a growing concern. Alongside this, a leadership shake-up was announced, with two senior executives set to leave. Lukas Leu, portfolio manager at Novo shareholder ATG Healthcare, described the guidance as “worse than expected.” (Reuters)
Traders are now debating if these numbers are a one-time “kitchen sink” event that will be revised downward later, or if they signal a reset demanding a fresh stock valuation.
Doustdar on Wednesday acknowledged that the recent U.S. price cuts for Wegovy are “painful” for the company’s financials but framed them as a potential “investment” if they help more patients get access. (Reuters)
Another layer of change comes with Novo’s management shuffle. Jamey Millar will take over as head of its U.S. operations starting Feb. 5, stepping in for Dave Moore. Then, from Feb. 15, Hong Chow will lead product and portfolio strategy, replacing Ludovic Helfgott. (Reuters)
The ripple effect spread beyond Denmark. On Tuesday in U.S. trading, Novo’s shares listed stateside dropped 14.2% to $50.57. Other obesity-focused stocks also took a hit, including Eli Lilly, Structure Therapeutics, and Altimmune. “Novo’s performance confirms a market for oral treatments,” said Citizens equity research analyst Jonathan Wolleben, as Wall Street re-evaluated its obesity drug forecasts. Some estimates have been trimmed to around $80 billion to $105 billion by 2030, down from prior projections near $150 billion. (Reuters)
Novo has shifted how it wants investors to view the year ahead. In its latest outlook, the company flagged that 2026 sales and operating profit will get a lift from reversing $4.2 billion in sales rebate provisions linked to the U.S. 340B Drug Pricing Program. Instead, Novo will report “adjusted” figures that strip out this impact. On an unadjusted basis, it expects sales growth at the midpoint to fall 1%, while operating profit growth lands at 11%. (GlobeNewswire)
A note from Hargreaves Lansdown reported Novo’s 2025 sales climbed 10% to 309.1 billion Danish crowns, with operating profit up 6% at 127.7 billion crowns. However, it highlighted a sluggish outlook for 2026. The company plans to propose a final dividend of 7.95 crowns per share and has kicked off a 15 billion-crown share buyback. (Hargreaves Lansdown)
Downside risk mounts if deeper U.S. price cuts outpace volume gains, or if copycat competitors continue siphoning patients toward cheaper options. The stock could also suffer if the gap with Eli Lilly grows in crucial markets.
Investors are now focused on fresh details about U.S. pricing and access, plus the speed at which oral Wegovy can gain traction in the cash-pay market. All eyes are on Feb. 5, the day Millar assumes control of the U.S. unit.
