Nvidia (NVDA) After-Hours on December 10, 2025: Fed Rate Cut, China H200 Deal and What to Watch Before the December 11 Open

Date: December 11, 2025 — Pre‑market overview

Key takeaways for Nvidia stock (NVDA)

• Nvidia closed lower on December 10 around $183.8, down about 0.6% on the day, even as major U.S. indices finished higher after the Federal Reserve’s third rate cut of 2025. ^[1]
• After the bell, NVDA extended its slide, trading in the low $182 range in after‑hours dealing, before pre‑market quotes on December 11 showed the stock rebounding to roughly $185.5 (+0.3% vs. yesterday’s close). ^[2]
• The move comes as Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be sold in China—if the U.S. government takes a 25% cut of the revenue—meets a mixed market reaction, balancing huge demand against political and regulatory risks. ^[3]
• New reporting on December 10 shows ByteDance and Alibaba already lining up to buy H200s, while Beijing weighs whether to approve the imports and continues to push Chinese buyers toward domestic AI chips. ^[4]
• At the same time, Nvidia is building new location‑verification software to combat chip smuggling, underscoring intensifying scrutiny over where its most powerful GPUs end up. ^[5]
• Fresh forecasts released or updated on December 10 still paint an overwhelmingly bullish long‑term picture, with Wall Street’s average 12‑month target around $258, algorithmic models projecting double‑digit returns, and some fundamental analysts sketching scenarios where Nvidia’s value could approach $10–11 trillion by 2030—though those are highly speculative. ^[6]

Below is what actually happened with NVDA after the bell on December 10, and what traders and long‑term investors may want to watch before the U.S. market opens on December 11.

How Nvidia traded on December 10, 2025

On Wednesday, December 10, 2025, Nvidia shares slipped for a second straight session.

• Close: Nvidia finished the regular session around $183.78, down 0.64% on the day, on heavy volume of more than 157 million shares. ^[7]
• Context: Over the last year NVDA is still up about 32%, even after the recent pullback, according to CoinCodex’s data snapshot for December 10. ^[8]
• Market backdrop: The S&P 500 gained about 0.67%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.33%, and the Dow jumped more than 1% after the Fed delivered a widely expected rate cut. ^[9]

In other words, NVDA underperformed a broadly green tape, which is important for understanding the after‑hours and pre‑market setup.

After-hours and pre-market: Where NVDA stands before the open

After the bell, December 10

After the closing bell, Nvidia shares continued to drift lower:

• A widely used after‑hours quote service showed NVDA around $182–$182.5, roughly 0.8–0.9% below the official close by about 4:30 p.m. ET. ^[10]

The mood in after‑hours trading reflected “good news, but already priced in” worries: the headlines were overwhelmingly about positive developments—Fed easing, potential new China sales, strong long‑term AI demand—yet the stock faded.

Pre‑market, December 11

By early U.S. pre‑market on December 11, the tone looks a bit more constructive:

• Kraken’s stock desk lists Nvidia’s pre‑market price at about $185.46, up around 0.26% from the last close and roughly 1.7% above yesterday’s after‑hours lows. ^[11]

That suggests some dip‑buying interest overnight, but not a decisive breakout. NVDA is still trading within the $182–$186 zone it has oscillated in this week.

Macro backdrop: Fed delivers third rate cut of 2025

The biggest macro catalyst into the close on December 10 was the Federal Reserve meeting.

• The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50–3.75% range, the third cut of 2025, and signaled it may now pause further cuts, with only one additional reduction penciled in for 2026. ^[12]
• Stocks broadly rallied into the close as investors welcomed a still‑accommodative stance without obvious signs of imminent recession. ^[13]

For a high‑multiple AI leader like Nvidia, lower rates support lofty valuations by reducing the discount rate on future earnings. But the fact that NVDA fell on a “good news” Fed day hints that stock‑specific forces dominated the tape.

The big Nvidia story: H200 exports to China and the 25% “Dragon Fee”

The main fundamental narrative around Nvidia this week is Trump’s decision to let Nvidia sell H200 AI chips to China again—with a catch.

The deal in a nutshell

• On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that Nvidia will be allowed to sell H200 AI accelerators to “approved customers” in China, reversing previous export curbs. ^[14]
• In exchange, Nvidia must hand over 25% of revenue from those H200 sales to the U.S. government, an unusually direct revenue‑sharing arrangement that commentators have nicknamed the “Dragon Fee”. ^[15]

This decision follows an earlier agreement under which Nvidia and AMD agreed to share 15% of revenue from sales of lesser H‑series chips like the H20 to China. ^[16]

Massive demand — on paper

The December 10 Reuters exclusive shows just how eagerly Chinese tech giants want back in:

• ByteDance and Alibaba have already contacted Nvidia about placing large H200 orders, subject to Beijing’s approval. ^[17]
• The H200 is nearly six times as powerful as the previously export‑able H20, making it by far the most capable AI chip legally available in China if the policy holds. ^[18]
• Supply is extremely tight: Nvidia has prioritized production of its even newer Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips, so current H200 volumes are limited, which could keep pricing and margins high. ^[19]

Analysts cited in a December 10 Gotrade/Finbold roundup estimate that resumed China shipments could add roughly $25–30 billion per year in revenue, with one Wall Street estimate suggesting a $30 billion boost under more optimistic scenarios. ^[20]

Why the stock isn’t exploding higher

Despite the apparent win, Nvidia stock has been dragging, and multiple analyses published on December 10 try to explain why:

• A TradingView‑syndicated Invezz note points out that Nvidia shares were down about 1.4% intraday on Wednesday, even after the H200 announcement, as investors weigh policy uncertainty, logistical hurdles and mounting Chinese competition. ^[21]
• H200s headed for China are expected to be manufactured in Taiwan, routed through the U.S. for national‑security review, and then exported, creating potential delays and extra compliance friction. ^[22]
• Chinese regulators haven’t yet given a clear green light. Beijing has actually barred government‑funded data centers and some large tech firms from buying Nvidia AI chips recently, and is simultaneously nudging buyers toward local alternatives from Huawei and Cambricon. ^[23]

In short, the H200 decision opens a door but not a floodgate—and markets hate ambiguity.

China risk, domestic AI chips and national-security backlash

Several December 10 pieces also stress that China remains both Nvidia’s biggest swing factor and its knottiest risk.

Beijing’s push for domestic AI chips

The Financial Times reports that for the first time, China has officially added domestic AI processors from Huawei and Cambricon to its government procurement list, as part of its “Xinchuang” initiative to replace foreign hardware and software in public‑sector IT. ^[24]

• Some Chinese institutions have already found that new domestic chips are hard to fully utilize because their AI stacks were built on Nvidia hardware, but Beijing appears willing to accept near‑term friction in exchange for long‑term tech independence. ^[25]

That backdrop explains why many analysts see Trump’s H200 export deal as a partial reprieve, not a return to the old China growth story.

U.S. security concerns and backlash

On the U.S. side, national‑security hawks are furious.

• A December 9 Reuters piece and follow‑up summaries emphasize that critics in Washington warn the H200 decision could “supercharge” China’s military AI capabilities, arguing that the chip’s power makes it inherently dual‑use. ^[26]
• The Washington Post notes that Trump’s move undercuts earlier export controls and may erode America’s “only clear advantage in AI compute,” even as Beijing restricts which Chinese buyers can actually use the chips. ^[27]

This clash—China’s self‑reliance push vs. U.S. security worries vs. Nvidia’s growth ambitions—is exactly the kind of multi‑directional risk that can keep a stock volatile despite strong fundamentals.

Nvidia’s new chip-tracking software: another December 10 twist

Adding to the regulatory drama, Reuters reported on December 10 that Nvidia has developed new location‑verification software for its data‑center GPUs. ^[28]

Key points:

• The software uses GPU telemetry and signal latency to estimate where a chip is physically running, giving data‑center operators a way to monitor fleet health and location. ^[29]
• It will debut with Nvidia’s latest Blackwell chips and may later be extended to Hopper and Ampere GPUs. ^[30]
• The feature responds directly to calls from the White House and U.S. lawmakers to prevent smuggling of banned AI chips to China, after DOJ cases uncovered attempts to move more than $160 million worth of Nvidia hardware via complex routes. ^[31]
• China’s top cybersecurity regulator has reportedly questioned Nvidia over potential “backdoors,” prompting the company to insist that the telemetry is read‑only and that there is “no kill switch” built into its GPUs. ^[32]

For investors, this is a double‑edged sword: better compliance tools may keep export windows open, but they may also further alarm Chinese regulators and complicate customer relationships.

AI bubble worries: The Atlantic’s warning shot

While most Nvidia‑specific coverage on December 10 is bullish, The Atlantic published a widely shared essay arguing that something “ominous” is happening in the AI economy—with Nvidia sitting at the center. ^[33]

Highlights:

• Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to top $400 billion in 2025 and could reach $7 trillion by 2030, much of it financed with complex, highly leveraged debt structures. ^[34]
• Nvidia has reportedly struck more than 50 equity‑and‑financing deals with AI firms and cloud providers this year alone, effectively being paid with future profits and equity stakes rather than simple cash. ^[35]
• The article warns that if AI revenues disappoint while the debt piles up, a 2008‑style credit event centered on data‑center and GPU financing can’t be ruled out.

The piece doesn’t single out Nvidia as “the bubble,” but it reinforces a key question hanging over every high‑flying AI stock into 2026: how much of today’s valuation is supported by sustainable cash flows vs. financial engineering and speculative demand?

Fresh forecasts and price targets as of December 10, 2025

Despite the worries, December 10 saw an influx of bullish forecasts and updates for NVDA.

Wall Street consensus and analyst calls

According to a Gotrade/Finbold summary dated December 10:

• 39 of 41 analysts tracked on TipRanks rate Nvidia a “Buy”, reinforcing its “Strong Buy” consensus.
• The average 12‑month price target is about $258, implying roughly 39% upside from a recent closing price around $185–186. ^[36]

Some of the more detailed analyst views cited across the December 10 coverage include:

• Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon maintains a $275 target, emphasizing the technical superiority of H200 and its appeal versus the older H20. ^[37]
• Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers estimates that resumed China sales could generate $25–30 billion in additional annual revenue, even after the 25% U.S. skim, arguing that volume can outweigh the margin hit. ^[38]
• An Invezz write‑up notes UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterating a “Buy” and a $235 target, with a scenario where China shipments add $5–10 billion per quarter on top of a roughly $500 billion AI GPU order backlog—numbers that, if realized, would dramatically extend Nvidia’s growth runway. ^[39]

Quant and algorithmic forecasts

Algorithmic and quantitative models updated on December 10 also skew positive:

• CoinCodex’s NVDA model, updated around 9 p.m. GMT, projects the stock at $184.92 on December 11 and $185.85 on December 12, with an estimated 44.7% 1‑year return if held to December 10, 2026. ^[40]
• The same snapshot shows neutral technical sentiment, only 12 green days out of the last 30 (40%), and a Fear & Greed index reading of 39 (“Fear”)—a reminder that sentiment is cautious even as most models still point higher. ^[41]

Longer-term projections (2025–2030)

Several December 9–10 pieces and updated forecasts provide a longer lens:

• A 24/7 Wall St. valuation model pegs NVDA’s “base case” 2030 price at $318.42, up about 72% from current levels, with a 2025 target of $233.16 (~26% upside), assuming EPS of $7.24 and a P/E of 50. ^[42]
• Another 24/7 Wall St. forecast article outlines a path of steady gains through 2026–2030, with potential upside scenarios above $500 per share at elevated multiples. ^[43]
• A Seeking Alpha deep dive published December 10 argues Nvidia could reach an $11 trillion market cap by FY2030 if AI monetization continues to deepen and the company retains its leadership in chips, software and networking. ^[44]
• A separate Watcher.Guru/Investopedia‑linked piece highlights even more aggressive chatter about a potential $10 trillion valuation by 2030, reflecting just how stretched some of the bull cases have become. ^[45]

These projections vary widely, but they all share a common theme: most models assume Nvidia can largely maintain its AI dominance for the rest of the decade. That’s far from guaranteed.

What to watch before the market opens on December 11, 2025

Going into the December 11 U.S. open, here are the key Nvidia‑specific and macro factors on the radar.

1. Does the pre‑market bounce hold?

• With pre‑market NVDA around $185.5, bulls will want to see the stock hold above the $182–183 zone that acted as support on December 10. ^[46]
• A strong open above yesterday’s intraday range could signal that Fed‑driven relief and China optimism are finally being repriced in.
• A fade back toward the lows would reinforce the idea that good news is being sold, and traders may stay cautious until there’s more clarity from Beijing and Washington.

2. Any fresh signals from Beijing on H200 imports

The biggest near‑term binary catalyst is what China decides to do with H200 import approvals:

• Reuters reported on December 10 that Chinese regulators have asked Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent to quantify their demand and promised a decision “soon.” ^[47]
• If official guidance leaks or is announced—either green‑lighting some purchases or keeping the door mostly shut—it could change the narrative quickly.

3. Market reaction to Nvidia’s chip-tracking software

Investors will also be parsing follow‑up commentary on Nvidia’s location‑verification software:

• Positive spin: It may appease U.S. regulators, helping preserve export licenses and demonstrating that Nvidia is serious about controlling where its chips end up.
• Negative spin: Chinese customers, especially in sensitive sectors, may see it as a backdoor risk, making domestic AI chips more attractive despite inferior performance.

Any interviews, analyst notes or government comments around this topic could move the stock.

4. Fed fallout and tech sector rotation

The Fed’s third rate cut and hints of a pause create a nuanced backdrop:

• Lower rates generally support high‑growth tech, but if investors begin rotating into more cyclical or value names on the view that the economy is re‑accelerating, richly valued mega‑caps like Nvidia could still lag. ^[48]
• Watch broader Nasdaq futures and large AI peers (AMD, Broadcom, major cloud providers) in pre‑market; a sector‑wide risk‑on move would make it easier for NVDA to bounce.

5. Valuation fatigue and AI bubble debate

Pieces like The Atlantic’s December 10 essay may not move the stock tick‑for‑tick, but they shape the narrative:

• If more commentary leans toward “AI bubble 2.0” and highlights debt‑driven data‑center build‑outs, some institutional investors may trim exposure to the most crowded AI names, including Nvidia. ^[49]
• On the other hand, AI demand remains enormous, and Nvidia is still one of the few companies actually generating outsized profits from the boom—a point many bulls will continue to stress.

How different types of market participants may frame NVDA today

This isn’t investment advice, but here’s how various market lenses might look at Nvidia before the December 11 open:

• Short‑term traders will focus on:
  • Whether pre‑market strength above $185 survives the opening auction. ^[50]
  • Any fresh headlines from Beijing or Washington about H200 approvals or export conditions. ^[51]
  • Intraday correlation with Nasdaq and semiconductor peers after the Fed cut.
• Swing traders (days to weeks) may key in on:
  • The $180–186 trading range that has emerged this week. ^[52]
  • Signs that the China narrative is stabilizing—for example, initial H200 orders actually shipping, or Chinese authorities clarifying long‑term rules.
• Long‑term investors are more likely to weigh:
  • Whether the Dragon Fee tradeoff (giving up 25% of China H200 revenue to the U.S.) is worth the access it preserves to the world’s second‑largest AI market. ^[53]
  • The credibility of multi‑trillion‑dollar valuation scenarios versus the macro and regulatory risks outlined above. ^[54]

Regardless of time horizon, position sizing and risk management are critical. Nvidia remains a high‑beta, news‑sensitive stock sitting at the crossroads of U.S.–China tech rivalry, AI infrastructure spending, and Fed policy—that combination virtually guarantees volatility.

Bottom line

As of pre‑market on December 11, 2025, Nvidia stock is trying to bounce after a weak December 10 session, supported by:

• A Fed rate cut,
• An enormous potential revenue boost from H200 sales to China, and
• A wall of bullish analyst and model‑driven forecasts.

But that optimism is being tempered by:

• Regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty around exports to China,
• China’s deliberate push toward domestic AI chips, and
• Growing debate about whether the AI build‑out is edging into bubble territory.

For traders and investors heading into the December 11 open, the key is to recognize that the story is no longer just about Nvidia’s technology. It’s also about policy, politics, financing structures and global power competition—all of which can move the stock just as much as any new GPU launch.

References

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