New York, Feb 21, 2026, 00:59 EST — The market has shut for the day.
- Nvidia closed out Friday at $189.82, gaining 1.02%.
- Nvidia is nearing a $30 billion deal to invest in OpenAI, according to a source with knowledge of the talks who spoke to Reuters.
- Nvidia’s results on Feb. 25—and what CEO Jensen Huang has to say about the outlook—are the next big test for the AI trade, investors say.
Nvidia is nearing a massive $30 billion investment in OpenAI, according to a source who spoke with Reuters. Nvidia wouldn’t comment. OpenAI is currently targeting over $100 billion for the round, with a valuation pegged around $830 billion for the ChatGPT developer, the person said. SoftBank Group and Amazon are both expected to join the deal, while the Financial Times noted that these negotiations would supersede Nvidia’s previous commitment to invest up to $100 billion toward OpenAI’s data center chip usage. Nvidia shares ended Friday up 1.02% at $189.82.
Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter numbers drop Wednesday, and for investors, the stakes are clear: is all that AI spending finally showing up in the bottom line? Analysts polled by LSEG are looking for earnings per share to jump 71% on revenue of $65.9 billion, as “hyperscalers”—the big data center and cloud players—keep pouring money into infrastructure, according to Empower’s chief investment strategist, Marta Norton. “It’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise,” Norton said. S&P Global Visible Alpha’s Melissa Otto flagged a “significant” spread in analyst forecasts for the coming year. Reuters
Volatility’s not going anywhere. U.S. stocks climbed Friday after the Supreme Court tossed President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, but investors are still in the dark on what new trade rules might look like—or how courts and companies will sort out the tangle of lawsuits and possible refunds. “Today is a removal of some uncertainty, and we’re on to the next phase,” said Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments. Traders, meanwhile, sifted through fresh data showing December inflation heated up, and bets on a June rate cut held just over 50%. Reuters
Beneath the buzz, there’s been a quiet move among some investors, rotating out of the well-worn AI giants and into what they argue are more reliable “infrastructure” names—chipmakers, utilities, data-center builders, the companies poised to ride the AI buildout wave. This year, AI spending could hit $630 billion, according to a Reuters report. Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, sounded a note of concern: “valuations for anything with AI exposure are getting a bit rich,” he said, and suggested investors “need to exercise some caution.” Reuters
Nvidia’s range has barely budged ahead of the report. Shares moved from $185.94 to $190.33 on Friday, settling at $189.82. Thursday’s close: $187.90.
Much hinges on the outlook and Huang’s commentary around demand from top customers, following months of questions over the pace of AI spend payoffs.
Nvidia’s swings often ripple across the chip sector. Traders zero in on rivals like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, eyeing possible sympathy moves after Nvidia posts its results.
Still, there’s a catch to the bullish scenario. Should Nvidia’s guidance stumble—even just under that sky-high bar—or if OpenAI’s fundraising drags out, the market could snap right back into “show me” mode, fast.
Other hurdles are on deck next week—earnings from key software names, political developments out of Washington—but Feb. 25 stands out as the one everyone’s watching.
Nvidia’s results are expected at 1:20 p.m. PT on Feb. 25, with the earnings call set to follow at 2 p.m. PT, or 5 p.m. ET.
