New York, February 13, 2026, 06:29 EST — Premarket
- After tech stocks took a beating the previous session, Nvidia shares edged down a bit in early premarket moves.
- U.S. inflation data is on traders’ radar as they look for signals on where interest rates might head next—a big factor for megacap valuations.
- Nvidia’s results and guidance, due Feb. 25, shape up as the next big hurdle for the AI-chip trade.
Nvidia slipped roughly 0.2% to $186.50 ahead of the bell Friday, after closing Thursday at $186.94, marking a 1.6% drop. 1
The stock’s direction now hinges on the market’s anxiety over artificial intelligence and interest rates. Wall Street took a sharp hit Thursday. Tech names were dumped—Nasdaq lost roughly 2%—as traders sought safety. Cisco’s disappointing update didn’t help. “We see this as a ‘prove it’ year for AI,” said Jack Herr, primary investment analyst at GuideStone Funds. 2
All eyes are on Friday’s U.S. consumer inflation data, the next key test. Reuters’ economist poll sees the January consumer price index up 0.3%, same for core CPI, which strips out food and energy. “Firms tend to raise prices at the beginning of the year,” Morgan Stanley economist Diego Anzoategui told Reuters. 3
Nvidia’s real test comes with its earnings on Feb. 25. Investors, eyeing the company’s guidance as much as the numbers from the just-ended quarter, want clues about what’s ahead. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, as reported in Barron’s, expect Nvidia to deliver adjusted earnings of $1.49 per share and $65.58 billion in revenue for the January period. But UBS’s Timothy Arcuri points out the Street cares more about the company’s April-quarter outlook—he puts the revenue target closer to $74-$75 billion. Nvidia’s comments on its “CUDA moat,” the software suite that keeps developers tied to its chips, will also be under the microscope. 4
The market’s been whipsawed by the question of who actually benefits from AI, who loses ground, and who’s just pouring money in. “You’ve clearly seen that breakdown in terms of the monolithic AI trade,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, pointing to a move toward picking winners and losers stock by stock. 5
Next week looks set to keep the cycle spinning. “It’s all this whack-a-mole game … trying to figure out what AI is going to destroy next,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. Investors are eyeing more AI-fueled swings, and there’s a new batch of economic data ahead. U.S. markets take a holiday Monday; after that, investors get the personal consumption expenditures price index and an initial reading on fourth-quarter GDP. 6
Nvidia’s acting like a bellwether for broader sentiment right now — buyers pile in on optimism about growth, and when nerves hit, it’s the first thing they dump. Bond market swings after that inflation data? Those might pack just as much punch for Nvidia as anything coming out of the chip world.
Here’s the risk: a stronger inflation print has the potential to force investors to anticipate rates staying elevated, squeezing valuations for tech stocks with rich multiples. As for Nvidia, heading into earnings, the bar is high—there’s not much leeway for anything less than a bullish guide.
All eyes on Friday’s CPI ahead of the bell; after that, traders turn to Nvidia on Feb. 25. The focus is on results and guidance, with investors hunting for signs of AI demand and how customer spending is shaping up — the same forces lifting Nvidia’s stock, and now putting it to the test.
