New York, May 13, 2026, 06:44 EDT
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s spot on President Trump’s China trip threw chip-export access right back into focus for AI-linked stocks. This came as Nasdaq futures bounced higher and chip stocks looked to regain their footing after Tuesday’s slip.
- For bulls, it’s still all about real spending on AI infrastructure—demand at AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom for data center and AI chips keeps showing up strong. Bears, though, point to a crowded trade that’s vulnerable to rates.
- Rate-cut optimism is slipping. On Polymarket, the odds for zero Fed cuts in 2026 climbed to 70%. Over at Kalshi’s Fed market page, “exactly 0 cuts” led with roughly 63%. That’s a backdrop that puts pressure on high-multiple AI stocks—without earnings to back up the valuations, they’re tougher to hold. Polymarket
AI stocks weren’t reacting to the usual chip unveil or a flashy new model this time. It was all about access. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang landing a spot on Trump’s China delegation sent a clear message—traders saw a possible opening, maybe some movement on advanced AI-chip sales between the U.S. and China. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.82% as of 05:35 a.m. ET. The Dow futures, though, edged lower, underscoring how specific the buying was.
This comes into focus as Nvidia faces ongoing hurdles getting approval to sell its H200 AI chips in China. A reversal in policy wouldn’t impact revenue overnight. What would shift is how markets value the stock: China could go back to being seen as an unlockable opportunity, not just a ceiling. Trump talked about urging Xi Jinping to “open up” China to U.S. business, Nvidia right there at the table. Reuters
The chart swung as traders recalibrated for a pair of risks. Yesterday’s inflation surprise punished long-duration growth names—those leaning hard on future earnings. Then, a China headline this morning sparked dip-buying in AI-related stocks ahead of the U.S. open. Memory stocks steadied things early; Micron gained 6.2% premarket, Reuters reported.
Still looking pretty stretched here. Since March 30, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rocketed 64%, leaving the S&P 500’s almost 17% gain in the dust. Semis and memory stocks together made up 70% of the $5.1 trillion jump in S&P 500 market value this year through Monday. That’s not just about a hot sector—it’s the market leaning hard on a single group.
Bulls have a straightforward pitch, and it’s not just hype. AMD reported that first-quarter data-center revenue jumped 57% to $5.8 billion. Lisa Su called Data Center the “primary driver” for both revenue and earnings growth. Inference—the work of running trained AI models for customers—is driving up demand, stretching past GPUs into CPUs and accelerators. For the second quarter, AMD steered revenue guidance to $11.2 billion, topping what Wall Street had penciled in. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Nvidia’s figures back it up. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue jumped 73% from the prior year, landing at $68.1 billion. Data-center sales surged, too, climbing 75% to $62.3 billion. “Customers are racing to invest in AI compute,” Jensen Huang said. For the fiscal first quarter, Nvidia projects $78 billion in revenue—but that forecast doesn’t factor in any China data-center compute sales. That omission explains why China-related headlines dealt such a blow to the stock. NVIDIA Newsroom
Broadcom isn’t just following Nvidia’s lead—the rally’s got its own fuel. CEO Hock Tan said the company’s AI revenue for the first quarter jumped 106% to $8.4 billion, with custom accelerators and networking gear doing the heavy lifting. Broadcom now sees $10.7 billion in AI chip sales for the second quarter. And with that Google partnership stretching out to 2031 for custom AI chips, investors are latching onto Broadcom as the go-to “build your own chip” pick for the hyperscale crowd. Broadcom Inc.
The bear camp looks at the same data and lands somewhere else. Steve Edwards at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management sees “enough of a fundamental story” plus solid technicals behind the rally. But Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel isn’t sold—he wonders if optimism is just getting “too ebullient.” Michael Burry’s short position in a semiconductor ETF? That just underscored the mood. Reuters
That question gets sharper the higher rates go. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point, and right now, markets are leaning toward more Fed tightening, not less: Reuters, citing CME data, put the odds of at least a 25-basis-point hike in December at over 35%, up from just under 22% earlier this week. Prediction markets are echoing the same view: Polymarket put the likelihood of zero 2026 cuts at 70%, while Kalshi had the no-cuts scenario leading near 63%.
There’s another snag in the supply chain: Samsung, a major supplier of AI memory, remains deadlocked with its union over pay. The impasse could trigger an 18-day strike starting May 21, potentially pulling more than 50,000 employees off the line. According to Reuters, shipment delays and higher chip prices are on the table. Good news for SK Hynix and Micron on pricing, but for investors it’s a sharp reminder—AI infrastructure is just as much about labor, capacity, power, and politics as it is about surging demand.
This isn’t just a simple “AI up” trade. Nvidia’s out front—any shift on China access might reopen a market Wall Street had mostly written off. AMD and Broadcom still count, too, as demand filters through the supply chain. Underneath it all: TSMC, Micron, and Samsung. That’s where bottlenecks, or labor trouble, can turn even strong demand into margin headaches.
Everything now hangs on what buyers are willing to chase. Some Chinese exposure—just a crack—plus more proof that AI budgets hit the top line, and there’s still juice in this rally. But if yields tick up, or the trade gets too packed, these same names might sell off even on beats. That’s the tension here: AI’s narrative holds, but no more effortless moves on the chart.
